U.S. crude oil inventories are estimated to have fallen for two consecutive weeks, international oil prices closed higher

Oil market participants continue to pay attention to the results of the U.S.-China trade negotiations. Analysts estimate that U.S. crude oil inventories have declined for two consecutive weeks. The U.S. Energy Information Administration lowered its U.S. crude oil production forecast and raised its crude oil price forecast. European and American crude oil futures were in early trading. After falling, it ended higher on Tuesday (December 10). The January 2020 West Texas Light Oil futures settlement price on the New York Mercantile Exchange was US$59.24 per barrel, an increase of US$0.22, or 0.4%, from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 58.52-59.52. US dollars; the February 2020 Brent crude oil futures settlement price on the London Intercontinental Exchange was US$64.34 per barrel, an increase of US$0.09, or 0.1%, from the previous trading day, with a trading range of US$63.78-64.69.
The market is waiting for the progress of U.S.-China trade consultations and negotiations. December 15 is the deadline for the United States to impose the next round of tariffs on Chinese imported goods, which has put pressure on the market. International oil prices fell in early trading. However, the Wall Street Journal reported that officials from China and the United States are negotiating to postpone a new round of tariffs. Reuters quoted the U.S. Agriculture Secretary as saying that the U.S. president does not want to implement the next round of tariffs, but he hopes that China can avoid these tariffs in some ways.
The State Council Information Office of China held a press conference at 2:30 pm on December 9, 2019 (Monday). Assistant Minister of Commerce Ren Hongbin responded on the progress of US-China trade consultations and negotiations: Regarding China-US economic and trade cooperation , as everyone knows, our attitude and position are consistent. The essence of Sino-US economic and trade cooperation is mutual benefit and win-win. Cooperation will stand on both sides, and confrontation will hurt both. Regarding China-U.S. economic and trade consultations and negotiations, we hope that both sides will advance negotiations and consultations based on the principles of equality and mutual respect, take into account each other’s core concerns, and achieve results that are satisfactory to all parties as soon as possible.
Some analysts believe that China’s import growth of major commodities has accelerated in recent months, and the impact of the trade war may not be as serious as people fear.
Analysts generally estimated that U.S. crude oil inventories fell last week. The average estimate of 10 analysts surveyed by the Wall Street Journal was that U.S. crude oil inventories would decrease by 2.8 million barrels in the week ending December 6. Among them, 9 analysts estimated that U.S. crude oil inventories would decrease and 1 analyst would increase. Estimates range from a decrease of 5.2 million barrels to an increase of 1.2 million barrels. The average estimate of 10 analysts surveyed by the Wall Street Journal was that U.S. gasoline inventories increased by 2.4 million barrels last week, and distillate inventories including diesel and heating oil increased by 1.1 million barrels. U.S. refinery operating rates are expected to increase from the previous week. 0.8%. Analysts surveyed by S&P Platts estimated that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels last week, U.S. gasoline inventories rose by 1.2 million barrels, and distillate stocks, including diesel and heating oil, rose by 2 million barrels. A Reuters poll of analysts showed U.S. crude inventories were estimated to have declined last week.
After the closing of European and American crude oil futures, data released by the American Petroleum Institute showed that in the week ending December 6, U.S. crude oil inventories were 447.2 million barrels, an increase of 1.4 million barrels from the previous week, gasoline inventories increased by 4.9 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 4.9 million barrels. An increase of 3.2 million barrels. Crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, which has attracted much market attention, fell by 3.5 million barrels.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s oil demand, import, export and inventory data will be released at 10:30 EST on Wednesday, which is 11:30 pm Beijing time.
Deepening production cuts by OPEC and its allies have also provided support to the oil market, although some analysts estimate the market will remain in excess in the first quarter of 2020. According to data collected from various reports, in the quarter starting from January 2020, OPEC and non-OPEC participating in production reductions further reduced crude oil production by 496,000 barrels per day, of which OPEC was responsible for 365,000 barrels, and 10 non-OPEC participating in production reductions. Oil-producing countries bear 131,000 barrels. In this agreement to increase the number of production cuts, Saudi Arabia promised to lower the daily crude oil production limit from the original 10.311 million barrels to 10.151 million barrels, which means it will bear an additional 160,000 barrels of daily production reduction. Russia’s daily crude oil production limit has been reduced from the original 11.191 million barrels to 11.121 million barrels. Iran, Libya and Venezuela are still exempt from production reduction obligations, and Angola’s current quota remains unchanged. Algeria’s production reduction quota increased by 12,000 barrels.
The December “Shortage Energy Outlook” just released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration lowered the U.S. crude oil production forecast for this year and next year. U.S. crude oil production is expected to be 12.25 million barrels per day in 2019, a decrease of 0.3% from the November report forecast; it is expected that in 2020 U.S. crude oil production was 13.8 million barrels per day, down 0.9% from the November report forecast. At the same time, the U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that the average price of West Texas Light crude oil and Brent crude oil in 2019 will be US$56.74 and US$63.93 per barrel respectively, an increase of 0.5% from the November report; it is expected that the average price of West Texas Light crude oil and Brent crude oil in 2020 The average prices were US$55.01 and US$60.51 per barrel respectively, an increase of 0.7% from the November report.
OPEC will release the December “Oil Market Monthly Report” on Wednesday, and the International Energy Agency will release the December “Oil Market Monthly Report” on Thursday.
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