India is the third largest cotton exporter in the world, and domestic consumption continues to grow. Indian cotton stocks have been low in recent years, and the government continues to increase the minimum purchase price (MSP) of seed cotton. The price trend of Indian cotton is relatively strong, and the export volume of Indian cotton is strong. obviously decrease. Moreover, due to problems with the cotton structure, more than 300,000 tons of cotton still need to be imported every year. The main importing country is the United States (India’s import source country accounted for 55% in 2018).
India’s cotton output in 2018/19 was only 5.77 million tons, a decrease of 540,000 tons from the previous year. India exported a large amount of cotton until March this year after new cotton came on the market in November 2018, resulting in relatively tight cotton supply at the end of last year. From March to August this year, the price of Indian cotton was relatively high in the international market. Coupled with the expectation that the delay of monsoon rains before the end of June would affect the progress of cotton planting in the new year, the price difference between Indian cotton and US cotton continued to be high at this stage, and export competition As power declines, demand for external imports increases. Until October, we can still see a large amount of imports from India.
According to statistics, from January to October this year India exported 487,000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 46.4%; it imported 634,000 tons of cotton from January to October, an increase of 153% year-on-year. India’s main import increase was from the United States (accounting for half), and the rest were Cote d’Ivoire, Brazil, Benin and Cameroon. Judging from the seasonality of India’s imports and the recent shipments of US cotton to India, India’s imports will shrink sharply after November.
In the late 2018/19, affected by the sharp decline in US cotton and periodic imports A large amount of cotton arrives in Hong Kong, coupled with the high cost of printing yarn caused by the high price of Indian cotton, India’s exports are hindered: India exported 799,000 tons of cotton yarn from January to October, a year-on-year decrease of 22.7%; India’s domestic cotton yarn inventory has accumulated, resulting in the Indian market Demand fell, and cotton prices fell. By October, a large amount of new cotton has been launched, and the price of Indian cotton has continued to decline. The current spot price of S-6 in India is 39,500 rupees/kander, which is a discount of 70.2 cents/pound.
India’s domestic textile industry has been in a state of stable development in recent years, and terminal garment manufacturing is in a growth period. The textile production link is in stable operation; from January to October this year, the total export of clothing was US$13.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. Indian garment manufacturing is constantly improving and developing. At the same time, the manufacturing of textiles such as yarn is relatively stable, so the consumption of cotton and cotton yarn in India is relatively optimistic in the later period.
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