Introduction: Raw materials are high, PTA processing range remains high, profits continue to be marginalized, PTA factory operations remain at a high level, while downstream polyester demand is gradually entering the off-season, and as the Spring Festival approaches, the polyester load continues to decrease. It means that the PTA market may gradually accumulate risks, and many industry players have cautious bearish expectations on the current market.
PX is tight: As of this week, December 6, Sinopec’s PX has been running at a reduced load, Xianglu PX Line 1 has restarted, the domestic supply of PX is at 297,800 tons, and the average TA start-up is at 85.48% , the weekly output is 897,300 tons. Based on the PX import dependence of 45.2%, the PX weekly gap is 44,300 tons, and raw material support still exists. It is expected that with the realization of the mass production of Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 2 million PX devices as planned on December 10, the PX supply may improve.
PTA supply tends to be loose: As of December 6 this week, Xinfengming is operating stably, Pengwei Petrochemical Unit is operating at full capacity, and Hengli Petrochemical is running concurrently, and the PTA load has increased slightly. According to statistics from Longzhong Information , this week the comprehensive load of PTA is at 85.48%, the output is at 897,300 tons, the social inventory is at 1.33 million tons, and 40,000 tons have been destocked month-on-month. The accumulated inventory has not yet been realized, but since last week, multiple sets of PTA devices have restarted, and the operating rate is expected to be Maintaining a high level, although Hanbang Petrochemical and Sanfangxiang have equipment maintenance plans in the later period, with the decline in demand, PTA is more likely to cash in and accumulate inventory.
PTA profits are squeezed: From the analysis of the current PTA processing range of around 500 yuan/ton, PTA production PTA manufacturers are already in a state of small profits or losses, and with the recent relative strength of upstream crude oil and PX and the weak trend of downstream polyester weaving, the profits of PTA manufacturers will continue to be compressed, and the market may be supported, but the demand is sluggish, and the downstream demand for PTA The ability to bear price increases is poor, and price increases cannot be transmitted to the terminal and can only be treated with production cuts, and the supply and demand side will gradually weaken as a result.
The demand for downstream polyester is weakening: the operating load of downstream polyester dropped from 87.14% to 86.05%, and the overall demand is declining Trend, and both polyester and weaving are currently in a state of low profits and losses, and their ability to bear cost increases is limited. Once profits are compressed again, production cuts will be stepped up.
To sum up, recently affected by the strength of international crude oil and favorable data, domestic chemicals have been supported by costs and mentality, and PTA has continued to rebound. However, due to poor demand, month changes and hedging intervention, within the day The increase narrowed rapidly. Longzhong Information believes that with the large-scale expansion of PTA equipment in the later period and the gradual off-season of downstream demand, PTA will gradually experience a process of accumulation of inventory. Against the background of weakening supply and demand, the rebound will be limited, and it is expected that it will still show a trend of being easy to fall but difficult to rise. , the probability of maintaining a downward trend in the medium and long term is relatively high. In terms of operation, the futures market continues to maintain a short thinking. The main contract is under 4850 first-line pressure. In terms of arbitrage, the price difference (around -40) is currently 5-9 for counter-arbitrage operations, with a target of -100.
Attachment: Polyester factory maintenance plan before and after the Spring Festival in 2020
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