Under cost support, the PTA market hit the bottom in December. However, in the later period, faced with negative expectations of the commissioning of new PTA production capacity and declining demand, the market is still lacking. confidence.
Zhongyu Information statistics as of December 10, PX and naphtha in December The average monthly oil price difference is 251 US dollars/ton, and the average monthly production loss of PX continues to expand. Although the PX market continues to be under pressure under the expectation that Zhejiang Petrochemical will put into production another 2 million tons/year of PX in the future, the overall decline in PX production has slowed down due to excessive PX production losses. As of December 11, the average monthly PTA processing fee in December was 492 yuan/ton, which was the lowest since November 2018 (the average monthly processing fee in November 2018 was 482 yuan/ton). Currently, all PTA factories are operating at a loss, especially old and small PTA factories, which are under greater cost pressure. Cost support has inhibited the PTA market from continuing to fall. Coincidentally, the main futures funds changed months, and some profitable short funds reduced their positions, which also helped the PTA market to temporarily stop falling to a certain extent.
The launch of new PTA production capacity is negative and suppresses the market mentality. At the end of December, Hengli and Zhongtai’s new PTA devices with a total capacity of 3.7 million tons/year are likely to be put into production, and PTA supply will increase significantly. At present, almost all operable PTA units are in normal operation except Hanbang’s 2.2 million tons/year and Jialong Petrochemical’s 600,000 tons/year units, which are shut down. However, Hanbang’s 2.2 million tons/year is only shut down for 10 days. Most PTA units are in 9- It has been overhauled in November, and there may not be another PTA device overhaul in December. In the later stage, attention will be paid to whether the two sets of 1.2 million tons/year devices in Sanfangxiang are being inspected. The two sets of devices have been operating normally for several months, but the factory said there is no specific maintenance schedule.
We have now entered the window period for terminal factories to stock up on the eve of the Spring Festival. However, the macro environment is not good and the PTA new Factors such as production capacity deployment and high inventory of gray fabrics may lead to an overall lackluster stocking market this year. Judging from the current situation, the United States may postpone the tax increase on Chinese goods again on December 15, but there will be no new macro negative effects. The new production capacity of PX and PTA was put into operation, and the market prices of PX and PTA fluctuated and fell, which led to a strong atmosphere of fear of a fall in the market. Under the mentality of chasing the rise and killing the fall, the intention of terminal factories to buy bargains and replenish goods decreased. In mid-December, the inventory of gray fabrics in the Shengze area was still at a high level of about 38 days. As terminal textile and garment factories began to take holidays in the later period, Zhongyu Information speculated that the inventory of gray fabrics would continue to rise from late December to January, occupying a large amount of funds in the weaving factories. Influence the weaving factory to purchase raw materials.
Unless there is an unexpected surge in crude oil or an unexpected shutdown of large-scale PTA equipment, the PTA market will rebound weakly. Zhongyu Information believes that it will resist the decline temporarily under cost support, and the mid-term market outlook will be volatile and slightly lower.
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