In recent times, due to the impact of contaminated cargo and less-than-expected arrivals at the port, inventories at the main port have continued to decline. With the spot volume being tight, the market has It is difficult for traders to deliver contracts as scheduled, causing the spot market to continue to rise. Can this round of market conditions continue?
Polyester maintenance plans are being introduced one after another
Although the overall finished product inventory of polyester companies is not high at present, the terminal weaving operating rate has increased significantly. In order to better manage inventory, polyester factories have also successively announced maintenance plans during the Spring Festival. As of the current data, the comprehensive operating rate of domestic polyester has dropped to 85.07%. With the implementation of polyester factory maintenance, the comprehensive operating rate of domestic polyester is expected to further drop to around 70% during the Spring Festival.
There will be more new devices next year
Recent domestic ethylene glycol plant overall There has been little change, with the load remaining at around 64.01% and domestic supply stable at around 650,000 tons. In the next period of time, there is a large amount of domestic ethylene glycol production capacity planned to be built. Inner Mongolia Rongxin and Hengli Petrochemical started commissioning in December, and Zhejiang Petrochemical, Sinochem Quanzhou, Zhongke Zhanjiang and other units have also been put into operation. By the middle of next year, new domestic production capacity will reach 3.5 million tons, which will make things worse for ethylene glycol, which already has a sharp contradiction between supply and demand.
Ethylene glycol inventory turning point is difficult to find
East China main port inventory trend chart
In recent times, due to cargo pollution accidents, weather and other reasons, the turning point of ethylene glycol inventory has been difficult to reach. As of December 12, the inventory at the main port in East China was 324,100 tons. The market Spot volume continues to be tight. In addition, there are rumors in the market that it is difficult to deliver a certain merchant’s contract, making it difficult to find spot goods.
Overall, the current domestic ethylene glycol spot volume remains tight, and the short-term pattern is difficult to improve. However, the terminal weaving situation is not optimistic, the polyester load is slowly declining, and the poor performance on the demand side suppresses rigid demand. In addition, there is a significant increase in the forward domestic supply side, and the contradiction between supply and demand is expected to be pessimistic. The current game of tight spot and weak forward is still sharp, and the market will gradually turn to pessimism as time goes by.
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