Introduction: The polyester circle was booming yesterday. First, TA took advantage of the PX device problem to quickly pull up, and then EG took advantage of the tight supply. It went on and on, closing at 4,835 yuan/ton and 5,650 yuan/ton respectively. The downstream polyester quotations rose by about 200 yuan/ton this morning. Behind the carnival, it is worth thinking rationally and guarding against potential risks. The following A brief analysis from macro and micro aspects.
In the evening, the U.S. PPI in November was less than expected, and the number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week increased more than expected. However, the British Conservative Party overwhelmingly won the election to temporarily lift the hard Brexit crisis, and the market released Very strong trade optimism has alleviated concerns about additional tariffs on December 15. Overall, macro market news has stimulated market sentiment, and funds have used the news to speculate, causing a huge shock in commodities.
International oil prices have maintained a volatile and strong trend in recent days, and may further rise in the short term. The upward trend will continue. The market is waiting for the verification of the implementation of production cuts and the substantive news of the weekend trade negotiations. In the short term, Domestic chemical products are supported by costs and mentality. However, judging from the recent commodity trends, the trend of product independence is relatively strong. With the completion of the main contract month change, commodities will inevitably enter the shock accumulation stage, and the market fluctuations will increase. This is normal, and PTA is no exception. Positions need to be effectively controlled to avoid risks.
According to Longzhong Information statistics, the PTA comprehensive load increased from 83.51% to 85.06% this week. Jiangyin Hanbang 2.2 million tons is expected to restart next week, and Xinjiang Zhongtai’s new 1.2 million tons unit is put into operation. It is expected that the average load of PTA next week will be 86%, and the operating rate will remain high. The operating load of downstream polyester dropped from 86.42% at the weekend to 85.19%. The overall demand is on a downward trend, and both polyester and weaving are currently in a state of small profits and losses. The ability to withstand cost increases is limited. With the decline in demand, PTA or Fulfill expectations.
In short, the current market situation is more about the game of macro preference and micro supply and demand. Unless the macro benefits continue, PTA futures or rebound are expected to be limited. In terms of operation, the market continues to maintain the idea of selling short on highs, and the trend order patiently waits for opportunities. The pressure is 4950-5000. In terms of arbitrage, the safety margin is around -40, and the logic of 5-9 counter moves still exists. In the early stage, 1-5 counter moves have reached the profit stop. position, you can build 1-5 positions near -100 in the short term.
Attachment: Recent polyester maintenance plan
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