Recently, the news that polyester factories have reduced production has affected the hearts of textile people.
As early as the beginning of this month, many maintenance and production reduction plans for polyester factories before and after the Spring Festival have been introduced. In the polyester maintenance forecast at that time, polyester yarn POY accounted for the highest cumulative proportion, while FDY was due to start work. It is relatively low. Therefore, further reduction in production is limited, and its effect on the market in raising prices and destocking is relatively limited. As polyester products suffer serious losses and terminal weaving and texturing operations have been stopped one after another, in order to seize the last opportunity to clear inventories before the year, polyester factories can no longer sit still!
On the 12th, according to news, after the early polyester factory production reduction plan had little effect, the recent joint production reduction action by major polyester manufacturers has begun again: a consensus has been reached on production reduction, and production is planned to be reduced during the Spring Festival. About 30%.
As we all know, the centralized maintenance of polyester equipment means a reduction in supply. However, affected by the news of joint production cuts by polyester factories and multiple positive factors, In the past two days, the overall polyester industry chain has been stable and improving. There is still nearly one and a half months until the Spring Festival.
So, will the centralized maintenance at this time bring about a new round of rising stock prices?
1. Stocking up by weaving companies will help polyester factories destock
In addition, a large number of downstream weaving companies have already entered During the product development period, due to the limitation of the payment cycle, it is difficult to pay back the orders received in time before the Chinese New Year unless the payment is received, so the number of orders on the market is getting smaller and smaller.
For downstream weaving companies, what they are most concerned about is not the production and sales of polyester factories, but the price of polyester filament, which is related to the cost of their cloth. As the price of polyester filament enters the lowest price period in three years, there will be less likely to fall in the next year. Therefore, most weaving companies will stock up on raw materials before the holidays. This wave of market prices will help polyester companies clean up. part of the inventory. From the perspective of weaving demand for polyester, there is indeed some support in the short term.
2. With the positive help from the easing of Sino-US trade, foreign trade textile confidence may rebound
On the other hand, on Friday, a piece of news detonated the circle of friends. According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump has signed a U.S.-China trade agreement, and the U.S. proposes to cancel the December 15 tariffs to avoid tariffs in December. Affected by this news, global risk assets rose collectively, and major textile commodities in the stock market and futures market also rose in tandem. In the short term, it also strengthened the support of the polyester market.
At the same time, as the biggest black swan this year, the textile trade market is greatly affected by Sino-US trade. At present, with the continuous development of my country’s textile industry, my country’s textiles are in It has very strong competitiveness internationally. With the easing of Sino-US trade frictions, the current foreign trade order season may bring greater confidence to the textile market. It is not ruled out that more textile factories will receive more large international orders in the future. .
3. Overcapacity is a negative obstacle, and production cuts at the end of the year are difficult to reverse the overall market decline
The level of inventory is the basis for polyester factories to increase or support prices. After this week’s intensive inventory destocking, polyester factory inventories have dropped significantly. It can be seen that high inventory has been resolved to a certain extent, and polyester factories have a certain degree of confidence in raising prices. However, as the end of the year approaches, looking back at downstream actions, the weaving market, which is under high inventory pressure, will become increasingly cautious about stocking up. The intention to stock up at the end of the year is less than in previous years. Therefore, although there are enough favorable conditions in the near future to support a slight rebound in the polyester market.
However, in the long term, the expectation that new upstream raw material equipment will soon be put into production is still a big negative. In addition, the recent recovery in polyester production and sales is also based on the market overdraft and the last wave of pre-holiday stocking up this year. As the weaving industry faces a large-scale shutdown at the end of the month, inventory will inevitably accumulate again. Therefore, in the long run, the future growth of polyester filament may be difficult to continue.
The editor predicts that in order to reduce inventory, polyester manufacturers will find it difficult to reduce the price of polyester filament significantly during this period of time without major fluctuations in fundamentals. , there is a high probability that it will be in a stable but rising situation. Weaving companies can also purchase raw materials carefully according to their own needs. </p
