Beginning on December 12, the price of polyester filament began a new round of upward trend. On the 18th, polyester yarn from a large factory in Jiangsu increased by 100-300 yuan/ton, FDY from a factory in Wuxi increased by 100-150 yuan/ton, and FDY from a factory in Wujiang increased by 100 yuan/ton.
As of December 18, within one week, various varieties of polyester filament products have different Among them, FDY has the largest increase, reaching 400 yuan/ton.
Recently, Zhejiang Tiansheng FDY (600,000 tons/year) has been shut down for maintenance, superimposing the former Zhou Tongkun Hengsheng and Xinfeng Ming and many other manufacturers have stopped operations and reduced their workloads. The oversupply situation has improved slightly, and polyester filament manufacturers have been destocking more. The inventory days of polyester filament companies are POY 7.5 (-1.0) days, FDY 8.5 (-3.5) days and DTY 18.0 (-3.5) days.
The current profit per ton of the polyester filament industry is POY-127 (-97) yuan/ton and FDY -210 (-64) yuan/ton and DTY 39 (-197) yuan/ton.
Polyester price It has gone up. How will the market react next?
The Spring Festival is gradually approaching. In order to ensure smooth production after the festival, weaving needs to replenish raw materials before the festival. At present, polyester filament is trading time for space. Under the operation of advance equipment maintenance Choose a price increase strategy. At present, the overall purchasing mentality of the downstream is relatively contradictory. Downstream spinning companies also have certain differences in their later purchasing habits.
1. Fund occupation problem
Since this year, the weaving factory’s raw materials Procurement policies have begun to become more cautious, and are subject to the restrictions on the use of funds under the weaving credit sales model. Therefore, before the Spring Festival, it is necessary to consider the progress of the recovery of accounts receivable of textile companies and their ability to purchase polyester filament. However, if there is a weak recovery of receivables, Compared with the situation in previous years, companies may be restricted in their replenishment efforts.
2. Cost issues for textile enterprises
Since this year, downstream profits The situation has not been very optimistic. According to the current cash flow of gray fabrics, the current machine rate of water-jet looms is only 20-30 yuan/day. Judging from the results of the visit, weaving companies are still relatively resistant to the increase in raw material prices. .
On the one hand, because the inventory of gray fabrics is too high, the capital chain of weaving enterprises is very tight at the end of the year, product homogeneity is serious, fabric profits cannot increase, and raw materials are small. If the price rises a little, the fabric that was originally profitable may turn into a loss; on the other hand, weaving bosses generally say that they cannot see clearly what the market will be like at the beginning of next year. This year’s situation has made many past experiences no longer applicable. In the future, raw materials It is difficult to judge whether it is going up or down right now, so I choose to wait and see just to be on the safe side.
A person in charge of a weaving company that specializes in pongee spinning and owns 50 looms, but its inventory has reached 1 million meters, said that the price increase of polyester filament is now completely They are all hyped by upstream polyester manufacturers, and the market is not that good at all. If polyester prices continue to rise like this, they will have no choice but to advance their holidays.
3. Determination to support the price
Polyester filament “micro When losing money, they always want to follow up with the rise of PTA or crude oil futures, rather than choosing to compromise with the price. Faced with downstream replenishment before the Spring Festival, polyester factories are more likely to choose timely and appropriate maintenance during the Spring Festival instead of large price discounts and promotions. During this period, they will even frequently take advantage of the opportunity to raise prices to drive waves of short-term transactions.
In summary, polyester factories maintain cash transactions on the one hand, and support and stabilize prices on the other. If it stimulates downstream Another way to prepare large quantities of goods before the Spring Festival is to take advantage of the market’s psychology of “buying up, not buying down” to create strong market expectations now and even after the Spring Festival. However, the market has long been silent in the expectation of large-scale production of polyester dual raw materials. Public psychological expectations are difficult, so it is expected that the industry will still or not be active in the overall stocking of polyester before the Spring Festival, and will still mainly maintain multi-frequency and small batch purchases. </p
