The end of 2019 is about to come to an end. With the strong cost side, especially the “skyrocketing” of ethylene glycol, the last “crazy” of the polyester bottle flakes market is slowly coming to an end, as if it is unable to struggle. Downstream demand is weak, and the inventory of most bottle tablet manufacturers needs to be relieved. It is difficult to release the pressure quickly in the short term. At the same time, high costs have led to increased cash flow losses in the production of bottle flakes, and this state has lasted for more than a month. Coupled with slow on-site shipments, the losses are expected to continue.
PTA/MEG East China market price trend chart in 2019
In early December, the market price of ethylene glycol in East China once again pushed up to 4,725 yuan/ton. Terminal inventory was affected by cargo delays and the overall arrival was delayed, and the inflection point of the inventory accumulation cycle moved back again. On the polyester demand side, with the stable start-up of polyester production, the overall market demand is stable, which has certain support for the MEG01 contract and spot.
On the 12th, the supply of ethylene glycol contamination could not be resolved, resulting in a certain contract gap in some polyester factories. The focus of the East China market continued to rise to 5,650 yuan/ton. The actual arrival volume was less than expected, and the spot volume remained tight. On the afternoon of the 17th, the Yangtze River waterway was closed due to weather conditions, and the tight spot situation became more severe. It was difficult to find any goods in the spot market. The spot price of ethylene glycol in the East China market soared to 5,860 yuan/ton.
In December, the ethylene glycol market vividly played a “crazy” rhapsody, and its smooth replacement of PTA became the focus of the polyester market. What attracts the most attention in the industry is how high has the spot price of ethylene glycol risen?
Polyester bottle flake cash flow trend chart in 2019
With the spot price of ethylene glycol has been rising again and again, and the market for polyester bottle flakes has also been rising. At the beginning of December, the price of raw material ethylene glycol rose within a narrow range, and the price of bottle tablets did not change much. Most manufacturers stayed on the sidelines.
As downstream demand continues to be weak, most expectations in the industry are bearish, and the replenishment strategy is to buy as you use. On the 12th, Jiangyin Hanbang’s 2.2 million-ton PTA unit has entered maintenance. PTA spot prices are running warm, with the East China market rising to 4,835 yuan/ton. Coupled with the tight spot supply of ethylene glycol, prices jumped. The strong performance of polyester dual raw materials has pushed up the market focus of polyester bottle flakes. Manufacturers have raised their quotations, and the price of bottle flakes in the East China market has risen to 6,475 yuan/ton.
However, due to the weak demand on the demand side, the growth rate of bottle flakes is far less than that of the raw material side, and the cash flow loss of bottle flakes has intensified. The industry is skeptical about the conclusion of U.S.-China trade negotiations, and downstream stocks are being stocked appropriately. Subsequently, the first phase of the US-China trade agreement was reached, which greatly boosted confidence in the polyester market. The downstream industries of bottle flakes have become more enthusiastic about receiving goods, and the transaction volume was once high. Coupled with weather reasons, polyester raw materials continue to rise.
Bottle flake manufacturers are actively following the rise. The price of bottle flakes in the East China market has risen to 6,650 yuan/ton, and the price of high-end supply is 6,800 yuan/ton. Faced with the high bottle flakes market, the downstream market was cautious in chasing higher prices, and the transaction volume returned to the light level of the past. As of now, the average monthly profit of bottle flakes in December is -142.91 yuan/ton, the lowest level in 2019.
Taken together, although there is support from the cost side, the bottle tablet market also wants to follow the rise, but under the resistance of manufacturers’ high inventory and poor downstream demand, it is difficult to escape the dilemma of losses after all kinds of struggles. There is not much time left in 2019. I wish the bottle tablet market will turn its losses into profits as soon as possible! </p
