Introduction: Jin Lianchuang’s tracking data shows that the Christmas holiday affected the PX trading window to advance. One order of February goods rose to 832 US dollars/ton, and one order of March goods was traded at 822 US dollars/ton. Tons were traded, with an intraday valuation of US$831/ton CFR, with a daily increase of up to US$14/ton. Affected by this factor, PTA futures opened sharply in the afternoon, and the price instantly rose from around 4885 to 4964.
Although the cost side has strong support for PTA, the industry is still not optimistic about the mid- to long-term PTA market trend, and the futures market still maintains a bearish attitude.
New equipment is put into production intensively, and PTA is expected to be in oversupply situation
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
Since 2019, domestic PTA production capacity has been released intensively. As of now, a 1 million ton device of Sichuan Energy Investment Chemical and a 2.2 million ton device of Dushan Energy have been put into operation during the year; I heard that near Christmas, a 1.2 million ton device of Zhongtai Chemical It is about to be put into production and the production capacity will reach 54.005 million tons. Although the Hengli Petrochemical Phase IV PTA 2.5 million tons unit has been delayed from being put into operation, it is expected to be put into operation in January 2020. With the current operating rate continuing at a high level of 89%, the haze of PTA oversupply still hangs over the market. Therefore, the entire PTA market is expected to perform sluggishly and there is insufficient motivation for price increases.
In the traditional off-season, textile orders are scarce and demand is weak
As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream polyester and textile companies focus on reducing production and overhauling. The load of polyester has dropped significantly, and the load of weaving plants has also dropped. , at the same time, there are few orders from weaving factories and the textile market is relatively weak. In addition, the stocking of gray fabrics is much less than in previous years. In the case of overcapacity and falling prices of gray fabrics, many traders in the market are not optimistic about the market next year, and the volume of gray fabrics in the market may further decrease.
Overall, new PTA equipment is put into production intensively, and market supply pressure is expected to increase; downstream polyester demand continues to be weak, coupled with scarce orders from textile mills, the production restrictions of printing and dyeing plants will give rise to the already sluggish gray fabric market. The single order brought further impact, and the overall supply and demand performance was weak. However, the surge in PX has provided support to current prices. If a large PTA manufacturer continues to purchase raw materials at high prices, PTA prices may continue to rise to a certain extent, but the height is limited. However, the mid- to long-term PTA market may still be weak. </p
