Data shows that the Christmas holiday affects the PX trading window to advance, with one order for February goods It rose to US$832/ton and was traded at US$822/ton. An order for March supply was sold at US$822/ton. The intraday valuation was US$831/ton CFR. The daily increase was as high as US$14/ton. Affected by this factor, PTA futures opened sharply in the afternoon, and the price instantly rose from around 4885 to 4964.
Although the cost side has strong support for PTA, the industry is still not optimistic about the mid- to long-term PTA market trend, and the futures market still maintains a bearish attitude.
New equipment is put into operation intensively, and PTA is expected to be in oversupply
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
Since 2019, domestic PTA production capacity has been released intensively. As of now, there are 1 million tons of Sichuan Energy Investment Chemical equipment during the year. He Dushan Energy’s 2.2 million-ton unit is put into operation; I heard that near Christmas, Zhongtai Chemical’s 1.2-million-ton unit will be put into operation, and the production capacity will reach 54.005 million tons. Although the Hengli Petrochemical Phase IV PTA 2.5 million tons unit has been delayed from being put into operation, it is expected to be put into operation in January 2020. With the current operating rate continuing at a high level of 89%, the haze of PTA oversupply still hangs over the market. Therefore, the entire PTA market is expected to perform sluggishly and there is insufficient motivation for price increases.
In the traditional off-season, textile orders are scarce and demand is weak
As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream polyester and Textile companies have concentrated on reducing production and overhauling. The load of polyester has dropped significantly, and the load of weaving factories has also dropped. At the same time, orders from weaving factories are scarce, and the textile market is relatively weak. In addition, the stocking of gray fabrics is much less than in previous years. In the case of overcapacity and falling prices of gray fabrics, many traders in the market are not optimistic about the market next year, and the volume of gray fabrics in the market may further decrease.
On the whole, new PTA equipment is put into operation intensively, and market supply pressure is expected to increase; downstream polyester demand continues to be weak, coupled with the scarcity of orders from textile mills, the production restrictions of printing and dyeing plants will have an impact on this industry. The sluggish gray fabric market has further impacted orders, and the overall supply and demand performance has been weak. However, the surge in PX has provided support to current prices. If a large PTA manufacturer continues to purchase raw materials at high prices, PTA prices may continue to rise to a certain extent, but the height is limited. However, the mid- to long-term PTA market may still be weak. </p
