PTA suddenly jumped straight up in the afternoon on Christmas Eve, jumping from below 4,900 yuan/ton to above 4,950 yuan/ton. When new production capacity is intensively launched, the market generally tends to be bearish, and the sudden rise is really unexpected. According to the current news, the main reason is the increase in the price of raw material PX during the day.
It is reported that due to the influence of the Christmas holiday, the buying enthusiasm in the PX market has increased significantly. Improvement, trading atmosphere is active. On the whole, the price of PX closed at US$831/ton on the 24th, an increase of US$13/ton. Since the PX units of Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengyi Brunei were successfully put into operation and successfully supplied raw materials to the downstream PTA units, the price of PX has been under pressure. However, due to the influence of the festival, the trading atmosphere has increased, and the increase in PX prices is expected to be a short-term behavior. Judging from the increase in PTA, the cost of PTA corresponding to $13 PX increased by 70 yuan/ton, which was consistent with the increase in the closing price. At present, the processing fee of PTA is less than 400 yuan/ton, so the price sensitivity to raw material fluctuations has increased. It can be seen that the unexpected rise in the afternoon is directly related to the increase in raw material prices.
Starting from the end of 2019, the first phase of Xinfengming will produce 2.2 million tons (already invested), and the fourth phase of Hengli will produce 2.5 million tons. (December 2019), Zhongtai Kunyu (1.2 million tons) and Hengli Phase 5 with 2.5 million tons (second quarter of 2020). A large number of giant devices have been put into production one after another. The rapid increase in supply will bring obvious pressure, and there will be new ones in the later period. Large-scale devices such as Fengming Phase II with 2.2 million tons, Fujian Baihong with 2.2 million tons, Honggang Petrochemical with 2.4 million tons, and Yisheng New Materials with 3 million tons will be put into operation one after another in the fourth quarter of 2020. Therefore, in the long term, PTA supply pressure will continue to rise. Prices are mainly weak.
Since December, the price of MEG front-month contract has been strong due to the support of warm macro, its own extremely low inventory and frequent force majeure events such as terminals and equipment. rose, and the spot basis expanded simultaneously. However, after experiencing a short-term retaliatory rebound, the MEG market has returned to calm in recent days.
It is reported that a new 900,000-ton/year MEG device in Hengli Dalian has basically completed the feeding process, and the load has increased to around 50%. In addition, its ethylene cracking unit is scheduled to be opened in late January, and another supporting 900,000 tons/year MEG unit is scheduled to be commissioned at the end of February. In addition, Inner Mongolia Yankuang’s 400,000 tons/year device is still under trial operation, and the temporary plan is to release products around New Year’s Day. Zhejiang Petrochemical’s ethylene cracking unit is initially scheduled to be put into operation around December 25/26, and there are still plans for ethylene glycol test runs in the future. New devices are being promoted one after another, new production will be gradually reflected in market supply, and supply ports are being released one after another.
In addition, the current domestic ethylene glycol operating load has increased significantly, among which the coal chemical sector has performed better. With Henan Energy (Anyang), Yangmei Shenzhou and Qianxi Coal Chemical The operation is normal, and the current operating rate of coal-to-ethylene glycol is close to 90%. From the perspective of output, the monthly output of coal-based ethylene glycol in December is expected to be around 290,000 tons, an increase of around 100,000 tons from the low level during the year. Judging from the port inventory, ships entering the river this week are relatively smooth. Large ships in Shanghai Port were unloading normally yesterday. It is expected that the port will accumulate about 80,000-100,000 tons this Thursday.
From the perspective of supply and demand pattern, the seasonal accumulation pattern of ethylene glycol is being implemented, and the polyester factory maintenance plan is approaching the Spring Festival More clear. However, the inventory of polyester products is currently running at a low level, among which POY inventory is around 8.2 days. Recently, polyester production and sales have been weak, and product inventories are accumulating at a low level. However, it will still take time for the overall contradiction to accumulate. This week, polyester production is mainly running smoothly. It is expected that the operating rate of polyester will weaken significantly in early January, and the support for the rigid demand for ethylene glycol will weaken significantly by then. The MEG inventory accumulation range is estimated to be at the level of 350,000-400,000 tons in the first quarter of next year, and the terminal inventory from February to March is expected to fluctuate widely around 800,000 tons. However, the current ethylene glycol port inventory and social inventory are at low levels, and there is still some support in the short-term spot market.
It is worth noting that the current inventory of ethylene glycol raw materials in polyester factories is at a low level. In the future, it is not ruled out that the adjustment of the center of gravity of ethylene glycol prices will trigger phased stock replenishment actions in factories. </p
