The end of the year and the beginning of the year are important times for people in the textile industry to review the market situation of the previous year and judge the trend of the new year. Looking back on 2019, the development situation of the textile raw material industry is relatively severe. Sino-US trade friction, slowdown in domestic demand, and structural adjustments of downstream textile enterprises have profoundly affected the trend of the raw material market. These factors have led to “undercurrents” in the industry, and the main raw materials have shown a The trend of increasing volume and falling prices. This article will analyze the textile raw material market situation in 2019 from five aspects: output, price, profit, operating rate, and inventory, and help companies analyze and judge the market trend in 2020.
The overall volume of the textile raw material industry in 2019 Increase in price and decrease in price
The development situation of the textile raw material industry in 2019 is relatively severe. Judging from the full-year data, the textile raw material industry can remain stable and grow in quantity; however, the price has fell sharply. Judging from the annual average prices of major textile raw materials from 2018 to 2019, the annual average prices of all varieties fell by more than 12% year-on-year, and the annual average prices of some varieties fell by more than 20% year-on-year. The annual average operating rate of nylon and viscose staple fiber is below 80%; the viscose staple fiber industry has experienced gross profit losses throughout the year.
The main reasons for this situation are: 1) In the second half of 2019, China and the United States entered a stalemate in their trade war negotiations, and China and the United States imposed tariffs on each other. , the trade between China and the United States began to weaken, and China’s textile exports to the United States experienced a decline in both volume and price. 2) Chinese textile raw materials and textile exporters are actively exploring markets in the Middle East, Africa, Southeast Asia, Central Asia and other regions. However, due to the influence of politics and border disputes in countries in these regions, trade with them is progressing slowly. 3) As China’s GDP growth rate declined in 2019, domestic demand was limited, and consumers’ purchasing power for textiles was generally limited. 4) Downstream textile factories are undergoing the second structural adjustment after 2000, and textile raw materials, especially chemical fiber and other products, basically completed structural adjustment from 2014 to 2018. Although the output of chemical fiber and other products increased steadily in 2019, However, downstream textile mills have devoted themselves to the reform of their own business management and the adjustment of equipment and processes, resulting in limited overall purchasing power, resulting in oversupply of chemical fiber products and accumulation of inventory.
The chemical fiber industry deepens supply-side structural reform
In 2019, The chemical fiber industry continues to deepen the supply-side structural reform of the entire industry, which is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:
1) The release of new production capacity is accompanied by the elimination of backward production capacity. In 2019, the new production capacity added by factories in the viscose staple fiber industry in 2018 was basically released. At the same time, during the year, the viscose staple fiber segment business of Zhejiang Fulida, Hengtian Hailong and other groups was temporarily stranded or due to relocation, which affected the production capacity of the viscose staple fiber industry. Old production capacity has been eliminated. In the polyester staple fiber and filament industries, some small-scale polyester factories have also gradually withdrawn, while some intelligent production lines will be officially put into operation in 2019.
2) Production bases are gradually developing in a centralized manner. Large-scale groups in various sub-industries have begun to increase, and some companies in the industry have begun to actively deploy overseas production bases. Taking the viscose staple fiber industry as an example, in 2019, it has gradually formed a gathering place mainly in Xinjiang, Hebei, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Shandong and other provinces. Zhejiang Province will expand viscose staple fiber production this year. The province’s scale is 900,000 There are already two companies producing more than 1 ton.
Hengyi Industrial (Brunei) Co., Ltd.
3) Large-scale enterprises in the chemical fiber industry in 2019 The group’s overseas projects were successfully put into production. On July 12, 2019, all refining units were commissioned. Hengyi Brunei Company took only 2 and a half months to effectively get through the entire process and produce all qualified products. It has now entered trial operation status, and the factory load is around 85%.
The product structure adjustment of the cotton spinning industry is accelerating
In 2019, with the With the further escalation of the Sino-US trade war and some worldwide geopolitical impacts, textile foreign trade personnel have shown a certain degree of caution in accepting foreign orders. The demand for cotton textile products has been weak, further suppressing the price of cotton.
In the domestic market, the variety structure of cotton textile products has been adjusted frequently. Throughout 2019, there were few popular varieties as in previous years, such as “core-spun yarn” products. The product fashion cycle has also been shortened sharply. The “imitation mink” yarn, T/R and T/C series that were popular in the market in 2018 are only short-lived and it is difficult to form a long-term fashion trend.
Production and sales of six major textile raw materials in 2019
Main textile raw materials Including chemical fiber, cotton, linen, silk, wool, etc. This article mainly selects six categories of textile raw materials that are widely used in the market and have certain production capabilities, such as spandex, nylon, viscose staple fiber, polyester, acrylic and cotton, to interpret the operating status of the textile raw material market in 2019.
The output of major textile raw materials has increased significantly
2018~2019 Changes in the output of major textile raw materials
Note: The production data in 2019 is from January to November 2019 Month base��’s viscose staple fiber factories were shut down during this period. The annual average operating rate of the polyester filament industry and the spandex industry is around 85%, among which the operating rate of the polyester filament industry is slightly higher than that of the spandex industry. From a time perspective, after entering the third quarter, the operating rate of the entire chemical fiber industry has declined to varying degrees. This is mainly because after entering the third quarter, the inventory in the downstream textile market was relatively high, which slowed down the purchase of textile raw materials. As a result, the inventory in the chemical fiber industry also began to increase, which eventually caused some factories in the industry to limit production and reduce operating rates.
Two-level differentiation of spandex and polyester inventories
Main chemical fibers in 2019 Variety inventory index
From an inventory perspective, in 2019, the annual average spandex yarn inventory was 46 days, 1~2 The average value from July to September is more than 50 days. The high inventory of spandex yarns is mainly due to the gradual decline in spandex prices this year. Although the output has remained stable and increased, the amount of spandex used by downstream weaving factories and circular knitting mills is limited, resulting in high spandex inventories throughout the year. The annual average inventory of the viscose staple fiber industry is around 23 days, of which the inventory days were relatively low in May and August. After entering the fourth quarter, the inventory days gradually increased to more than 30 days. This is mainly because after entering the fourth quarter, the production of viscose staple fiber began to increase, but sales volume was limited. The annual average inventory of the nylon industry is around 24 days. The annual average inventory of the polyester staple fiber industry is around 6 days. Among all chemical fiber varieties, it is operating at a low level. This is mainly because the polyester industry accounts for a large proportion of the entire chemical fiber industry and the sales policy of this industry is relatively flexible. , and each company actively controls its production and sales rate, so the inventory in this industry basically remains low.
The price of textile raw materials will continue to be low in 2020
From 2019, textile Judging from the operation of the raw material industry, chemical fiber products are currently in a period of inventory growth. During this period, if the structural adjustment speed of the downstream textile sector is limited, the inventory of chemical fiber products will still show growth in 2020. It is expected that in the first half of 2020, the entire textile raw material market price will continue the downturn in the fourth quarter of 2019.
Since my country’s current macro-economy is still in an “L-shaped growth” state, although some textile raw material varieties are in a state of gross profit loss, as the prices of related raw and auxiliary materials have increased at this stage There may be a corresponding decline within the period. By then, even though the market price of chemical fiber products may be in a downturn, the industry’s losses are expected to gradually shrink.
In short, in the first half of 2020, the operation of the textile raw material industry needs to achieve “intensive cultivation, Deepen management and accurately target the actual market demand.” In this way, some products that are on the verge of gross profit loss will come out of the margin of loss, while some products with larger gross profit losses will gradually reduce the loss value. At the same time, in the operation work, it is necessary to accelerate the process of equipment automation and intelligence in the product production process, lay a solid foundation at the time of the textile economic switching cycle, and let China’s textile raw material industry move from a big country to a powerful one. </p
