PTA operating rate remained high last week, while polyester load rate continued to decline, causing PTA to continue to be in overstocked inventory. At present, the PTA load gap has been positive for several weeks, and supply and demand are relatively loose. But why did the PTA price continue to fluctuate upward last week?
Mainly because the upstream PX is very expensive. With the current overall load of PTA equipment on the high side, and the expectation that some new PTA factories will be put into operation, and at the time of long-term PX contract negotiations next year, PX itself is in a slightly tight supply context, and the delivery volume of individual PTA factories in the market this week is The trading action further promoted the strengthening of the price of PX. Sellers were reluctant to sell, and bids gradually followed suit. PX was in a situation where the price was high but the price was high. As the price of PX bids increased, the transaction price of PX continued to rise, rising from 817 US dollars at the beginning of the week. to $861, an increase of 5%.
With the rapid rise in PX prices last week, the PX-naphtha price difference has risen to US$255/ton. The price difference is already high. You should pay attention to it later. Short opportunity.
Back to PTA, on the supply side, the load of Zhouchufu Chemical Industrial and Trading Equipment declined, and Yisheng announced its first quarter equipment maintenance plan, and PTA ushered in a short-term recovery. However, as polyester has been undergoing maintenance one after another and the accumulation cycle of PTA has remained unchanged, the positive promotion of maintenance during the week has been relatively limited. The futures price has fallen back again. PTA fell below the cost line and the processing fee was once reduced to 400 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the raw material side ushered in a sharp upward trend due to the warming of negotiation atmosphere. PTA, which was under the pressure of losses, was more susceptible to cost-driven, and futures and spot prices fluctuated upward.
While PTA operating rates remain high, polyester production and sales appear very deserted. As the Spring Festival approaches, polyester production is reduced and demand is expected to decrease. From the perspective of market transactions, except for urgent replenishment, the market transaction atmosphere is weak.
Changes in domestic PTA factory equipment
Downstream In terms of polyester production, the current operating load of polyester is stable at around 83%. The price of mainstream polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has generally shown an upward trend. As of now, polyester FDY (150D/96F) is reported at 7350-7600 yuan/ton.
In the gray fabric weaving market, the rapid expansion of weaving production capacity has resulted in overcapacity, resulting in a bleak market. First of all, conventional products such as pongee, polyester taffeta and nylon fabrics have been reduced from “Internet celebrity” products in the past two years to “bad cloth”. It is difficult to have “enthusiasm” in the textile market, and there is no market response such as the traditional textile peak season of gold, nine, silver and ten. Fierce in imagination. It is also worth noting that the prices of almost all fabric varieties have dropped to varying degrees: for example, 75D weft-twisted imitation memory was 2.8 yuan/meter at the beginning of the year, and is now quoted at 2.3 yuan/meter; 75D 24T chiffon, the price has dropped from previous years. 3.3 yuan/meter dropped to 2.6 yuan/meter; 380T nylon silk dropped from 4.5 yuan/meter to 3.3 yuan/meter… In addition, statistics show that the current inventory of gray fabrics in Shengze is concentrated at about 37 days. Near the end of the year, the finishing work has gradually begun, and demand follow-up is slightly cautious, focusing on collecting payment. In addition, logistics and transportation have gradually entered a holiday trend, and order follow-up has decreased. The comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has dropped to 65 compared with the beginning of the week. %nearby.
We believe that the strengthening of the cost side will be beneficial to PTA in the short term. However, at present, downstream polyester factories have successively announced maintenance and production reduction plans before and after the Spring Festival. The overall demand side has weakened, and PTA has entered The inventory accumulation stage. The terminal textile market gradually enters the year-end closing stage, with accelerated parking in late December and cautious procurement of raw materials. At the same time, new PTA production capacity has begun to be put into operation one after another, and PTA supply pressure will continue to rise. On the whole, negative factors still exist, and PTA lacks motivation to continue to rebound. It is expected that PTA will be mainly volatile and weak before the Spring Festival, and the motivation for polyester filament to continue to rise will not be too strong. </p
