After the US air strike killed a senior commander of the Iranian army, everyone in the international energy market was “uneasy.” Some analysts said on January 3 that international oil prices could soar to $80 a barrel if escalating geopolitical tensions disrupt crude oil supplies in the Middle East.
For those in the polyester industry, taking this opportunity, is it possible for oil prices to soar to 80 With the US dollar high, polyester has taken the opportunity to get rid of oversupply, and the situation of low prices has become the focus of many people’s attention!
Analyst: If the United States and Iran go to war, international oil prices may rise to US$80 per barrel
As soon as the news came out, international oil prices rose. Oil prices rose by more than 4% after the attack on January 3. As of January 6, Brent crude oil was quoted at US$70.66/barrel, an increase of 3%; WTI crude oil was quoted at US$64.53/barrel, an increase of 2.5%. In addition, China’s crude oil rose by more than 4% in the last period, reaching the 500 yuan/barrel mark. Some analysts believe that oil prices may soar to as high as $80.
Regarding the impact of the air raid, Valentin Marinov, managing director of the French bank Agricole, said on Friday The reporter said, “Perhaps it is too early to draw truly limited conclusions about the overall impact on oil. After all, the OPEC meeting was just held not long ago, where they reiterated further production cuts.”
Marinov said: “In addition, we also expect that oil production will really peak this year, so this (rising) trend may continue.”
The International Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the non-OPEC alliance of major oil producers – sometimes known as OPEC+, agreed to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day starting from January 1 this year. Cut production by another 500,000 barrels.
For the global market, the recent series of events can be said to be the first “black swan” in 2020, and this “black swan” is getting darker and darker. This incident led to more intense unrest and even civil war in Iraq, which in turn led to the interruption of Iraq’s oil production and exports. The United States and Iran were already in a state of confrontation amid Trump’s severe sanctions, which greatly affected the instability of the global crude oil market. Certainty.
According to market analysis throughout 2019, it is expected that the average Brent crude oil price in 2020 will remain around US$58/barrel, and the crude oil price in 2021 will be US$53/barrel. up and down. But analysts at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group said Brent crude could remain around $70 a barrel in the short term, but if the conflict spreads to oil fields in southern Iraq or Iran harasses ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz Fleet, Brent crude could rise to $80.
The strong rebound in international oil prices has injected a shot in the arm into the already declining polyester market!
As the east wind blows, who is afraid of the United States or Iran? But for people in the polyester industry, taking this opportunity, whether oil prices are likely to soar to a high of $80, polyester will take the opportunity to get rid of oversupply, and the situation of low prices has become the focus of many people’s attention!
Industry insiders analyze that this incident is the “starting point” of the whirlpool in the Middle East in 2020. Once an extreme situation occurs, oil prices are very likely to explode at some point in 2020. growth situation. The impact on the reserves and prices of the domestic petroleum industry, as well as the price trends and market conditions of many industries such as the downstream chemical industry of petroleum, is difficult to estimate.
The chemical fiber industry has a very close relationship with petroleum. More than 90% of the products in the chemical fiber industry are based on petroleum raw materials. The raw materials of polyester, nylon, acrylic, polypropylene and other products in the industrial chain come from petroleum, and the demand for petroleum is increasing year by year. Therefore, after the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the prices of naphtha, PX, PTA and other products followed suit, and the prices of downstream polyester products were also indirectly driven up. Historically, for every 10 USD/barrel fluctuation in crude oil prices, the corresponding fluctuation in polyethylene production costs is 100-110 USD.
From the perspective of polyester production and sales, on January 6, the production and sales of polyester factories exceeded 200%. It is relatively rare for the overall textile market situation to be poor in the first half of the year, especially when the market is declining at the end of the year. It can be said that the last wave of market trends in the polyester weaving market this year has arrived!
Preparing for the last stocking before the Spring Festival?
The U.S.-Iran crisis has affected the market. The phased upward momentum of crude oil is irreversible, and the central oil price may rise widely in the next cycle. The continuation of OPEC’s crude oil production reduction plan will affect the price of crude oil, keeping crude oil prices at a high level, and causing related chemical raw materials to skyrocket across the board. The news is strong support. In the short to medium term, crude oil is less likely to fall, and may continue to rise until the end of the year. In this case, we may have to buy raw materials at high prices after the new year. Do we need to prepare in advance?
The editor believes that as for the operating methods of polyester companies before the holiday, even if the international oil price fluctuates again in the future, as long as it does not fall sharply, the polyester filament yarn will not fall sharply.It is unlikely that prices will fall in the future. At present, the inventory of polyester companies is at a reasonable level, and it is unlikely that they will reduce prices to suppress market enthusiasm.
For weaving companies before the holiday, there is a tradition of stocking up and the inventory of raw materials is still low. If you want to stock up on raw materials, the next week may be the last time of the year. Opportunity. At the same time, according to price statistics, although prices have increased in recent months, the current price of polyester filament is still low compared with the previous two years, and is within the acceptable range of enterprises.
Summary: Crude oil futures have risen for several consecutive days, and the polyester filament market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continues to maintain a steady and rising trend.
The main reasons are as follows:
First, international oil prices tend to rise, which has a positive impact on polyester-related products.
Secondly, there are centralized maintenance plans for PTA and MEG production equipment, which in turn will reduce the market supply level and help improve the market supply and demand pattern.
Thirdly, the current market price of polyester-related products has fallen to the bottom of the cycle, and the raw material reserves of downstream factories are not high. There is a traditional demand for pre-holiday stocking in the market.
To sum up, we predict that the market for polyester-related products will maintain an upward trend before the holiday. However, terminal textile orders have declined sharply due to the Spring Festival. At the same time, the high inventory in the weaving industry will take time to digest, and the market price may remain stable with an increase! </p
