In recent years, the situation in the Middle East has had a subtle impact on international oil prices. On January 3, the Baghdad International Airport in Iraq was attacked, further escalating the conflict between the United States and Iraq. There is a gap in the supply of crude oil, PTA and MEG both have large increases, and the cost of polyester has been pushed up, which has provided an opportunity for polyester, whose inventory is at a low level after load reduction and whose cash flow is on the verge of loss, to rise.
As we are about to enter the traditional Chinese Spring Festival, affected by this incident, many cloth bosses have become restless again, worried that crude oil prices will continue to rise and chemical fiber prices will rise. As soon as the Spring Festival goods start production, the price still can’t come down. What should I do?
Weaving market: Farewell, farewell, take the first step
As time goes by, weaving companies continue to face unstable start-up, workers are anxious to take holidays, and warehouses are The problem of slow digestion of medium inventory. Even if the rise in raw materials slightly drives enthusiasm for downstream operations, continued speculation is unsustainable. In the early stage, weaving companies planned to have a holiday around the 10th. Now that Laba Festival has passed, weaving mills can still maintain their orders on machine, but it is difficult to find new orders. When the expected demand is not optimistic, some companies have taken the annual holiday in advance, and The return will be after the fifteenth day of the first lunar month.
Excessive inventory, difficult to collect receivables, and periodic “buying increases” in weaving “Weak”
“Raw materials have increased, by how much?” Every time we ask textile companies whether the price of gray fabrics can be implemented at the lowest price of previous orders, they often get this reply. Of course, there are also textile companies that have not yet raised their quotations, and there are also textile companies that have not raised the price for large single customers after raising the price, or have canceled rebates in disguise. The main purpose is still to worry about customer loss and market transfer, but the cost is a bitter fruit. It is too numerous to write down.
Although crude oil has a decisive impact on the entire industrial chain, crude oil is subject to too many uncertain factors. If it rises today, it may fall tomorrow. The editor believes that crude oil cannot be used as a factor to increase the price of polyester yarn. wind vane. In addition, PTA is expected to put new equipment into production in the first quarter of this year, and the pressure on the supply side will also increase, which will inevitably have an impact on prices and will not provide a strong assist for the price increase of polyester filament. But more importantly, weaving manufacturers actually have no money to pay.
For weaving companies, they need to face two very serious problems before the Chinese New Year. One is excessive gray fabric inventory, and the other is difficult to collect receivables. Excessive gray fabric inventory has accumulated a large amount of funds for the company, while difficult-to-collect receivables have made the money that could have been received “visible and intangible”, and the two together have greatly reduced the flow of weaving companies. funds. Generally speaking, companies with earlier holidays will face greater financial pressure. This is a vicious cycle, so they are unlikely to spend enough money to purchase raw materials in large quantities at this time.
In addition to having no money, some weaving companies with good operating conditions are choosing to wait and see. The market conditions this year are not as good as expected, and common experiences from previous years such as “buy up and not down” have lost their effectiveness this year.
In fact, for most weaving companies, the stocking of raw materials at the end of the year has been carried out one after another in the past month, and by now, it has basically come to an end. According to this year’s market situation, a large number of weaving companies are unable to stock up on too many raw materials before the end of the year. This has led to the inventory of polyester factories at the end of the year being a serious problem. Under the pressure of inventory, it is difficult for the price of polyester filament to rise significantly.
Once a favorable air strike strikes, the prices of raw materials that have finally risen may fall again. Under such circumstances, maintaining a wait-and-see attitude and maintaining a small inventory of raw materials as planned may be the best option at this stage.
Taken together, as the year-end approaches, demand power gradually decreases and the market is closed. It is expected that the continued good news will not be expected and the news hype will subside. However, the pressure from above will not be easily digested by the market. Companies whose quotations have already increased may not be likely to continue to rise as the industry gradually closes. Companies that have failed to increase their quotations but have cut rebates intend to make a stable transition before the year to avoid the loss of resources and customers and prepare for the market in the coming year. </p
