1. Price Trend
According to data from the SunSirs bulk list, after experiencing a sharp decline, caprolactam The rising mode has started and it has continued to rise by 5.96%. The average ex-factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 11,100 yuan/ton on January 6, and the average ex-factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on January 10 was 11,266 yuan/ton. The price increased by 1.50% during the week. As of now, the caprolactam commodity index on January 12 is 56.67, the same as yesterday, a decrease of 43.33% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.00 points (2017-03-02), and an increase of 5.96 from the lowest point of 53.48 points on December 5, 2019. %. (Note: The cycle refers to 2017-03-01 to the present)
2. Market analysis
Product: Caprolactam rose slightly this week. As of now, the caprolactam liquid price of Shandong Luxi Chemical Industry is 11,000 yuan/ton, ex-factory in cash, the manufacturer’s production capacity is 300,000 tons, and the actual transaction can be negotiated. The caprolactam liquid price of Nanjing Oriental is 11,700 yuan/ton, the 400,000 tons/year unit is running normally, and the caprolactam unit is operating normally. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 11,150 yuan/ton. The 450,000 tons/year device is in normal operation and the acceptance is delivered. The caprolactam liquid price of Baling Petrochemical is 11,150 yuan/ton, and the 300,000 tons/year device is in normal operation and the acceptance is delivered. Fujian Tianchen Yaolong caprolactam liquid price is 11,600 yuan/ton, contract order, 280,000 tons/year device is operating normally.
Industrial chain: The cyclohexanone market stabilized this week, and the mainstream price in Shandong was 7,300-7,450 yuan/ton (spot ex-factory), which was stable compared with last week. The situation in the Middle East suddenly became tense, crude oil rose, spot prices in the pure benzene market rose, and cyclohexanone cost pressure increased. Due to the heavy snow in the north during the week, logistics and transportation were affected, and the demand for solvents was limited. Affected by the situation in the Middle East at the beginning of the week, oil prices rose sharply, driving the external market price of pure benzene to rise and the domestic market prices to rise. However, in the later period, oil prices plummeted and the support surface weakened. In addition, downstream trading has been light and profits were insufficient, and the market fell back.
Industry: According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there are 27 commodities in the chemical sector that have increased month-on-month in the commodity price increase and decrease list in the first week of 2020 (1.6-1.10), among which a total of 27 commodities have increased by more than 5%. 3 types, accounting for 3.5% of the number of monitored products in this sector; the top three products with the highest increase are bisphenol A (9.65%), ethylene glycol (7.92%), and ammonium chloride (5.09%). There were 18 commodities that declined month-on-month, and one commodity that fell by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of monitored commodities in this sector; the top three products with the largest declines were caustic soda (-5.22%) and chloroform (-4.55 %), sodium metabisulfite (-3.79%). The average increase or decrease this week was 0.35%.
3. Forecast of the market outlook
Caprolactam analysts from Business Insider believe that: with the recent support of raw material prices and the insufficient supply of products affected by weather in the north, manufacturers are interested in Prices are rising, caprolactam prices have begun to rise, and downstream demand is acceptable. Caprolactam is expected to maintain an upward trend in the later period, and it is recommended to pay attention to changes in raw material prices.
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