On the 2nd, Xinjiang Korla Zhongtai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. (abbreviated as Zhongtai Petrochemical) successfully put into operation the 1.2 million tons annual PTA project and produced qualified products. On the same day, the Tongkun polyester integrated project held a groundbreaking ceremony in Yangkou Port Economic Development Zone, Rudong County, Nantong City. It plans to invest 20 billion yuan to build an annual output of 5 million tons of PTA and 2.4 million tons of new functional fibers. The latest progress of these two projects has kicked off a new round of production capacity expansion. According to statistics, a total of 3.2 million tons of new production capacity was released in 2019.
Specific details include: Sichuan Shengda’s 1 million-ton PTA device was put into operation in May, and Xinfeng The 2.2 million-ton PTA device released 1.1 million tons of production capacity at the end of October and November respectively.
Concentrated production capacity deployment in 2020
Do not consider the withdrawal of production capacity in 2020 A total of 17.2 million tons of PTA production capacity is planned in China this year, and the estimated PTA output in 2020 is between 48.46 million and 51.92 million tons. The PTA supply and demand structure will be reversed in 2020. After new PTA devices are completed and put into operation, my country’s PTA production capacity will be further concentrated in Hengli, Yisheng and related enterprises, Tongkun and other enterprises.
Table 1 2020-2022 PTA device production plan
According to public disclosure Data shows that PTA is expected to usher in a new production capacity launch cycle from 2020 to 2022. By the end of 2022, PTA has a total production capacity launch plan of 29.3 million tons. The new production capacity will mainly come from the raw material matching of leading downstream companies and the main supply of PTA. With the expansion of businesses, the era of high prosperity for PTA will come to an end.
Oversupply is a foregone conclusion
From the perspective of the production cycle, in 2019 PTA production capacity growth rate is 7%, and is expected to be 22.3% in 2020. Downstream polyester production capacity grew by 6.54% in 2019 and is expected to grow by about 7% in 2020. Overall, the growth rate of PTA production capacity is greater than the growth rate of downstream polyester production capacity, and the oversupply situation is obvious.
Looking specifically from Table 1, the 1.2 million tons of Zhongtai Petrochemical, which has just been put into operation, and the 2.5 million tons of Hengli Phase 4 PTA, which is just around the corner, require a total of more than 4.3 million tons of polyester. The new production capacity is matched by this, and polyester is expected to put into production more than 4 million tons of equipment throughout this year. After the PTA equipment was put into operation in January, the oversupply pattern is relatively clear. Moreover, it is relatively certain this year that Hengli Phase 5 with 2.5 million tons will be put into production in September, Yisheng Ningbo with 3.3 million tons is planned to be put into production in July, and Xinfengming Phase 2 with 2.2 million tons is expected to be put into production in September. The concentrated deployment of these production capacities will intensify surplus situation.
Future development suggestions
At present, domestic companies such as Tongkun and Rongsheng Large enterprises such as , Hengli, Hengyi, Shenghong, Sanfangxiang and Xinfengming are still adding or acquiring polyester production capacity. At the same time, they are extending their industrial chain to the upstream raw material industry, and their ability to be self-sufficient is increasing. powerful. However, the equipment scale, technical level and scale of traditional enterprises (except for individual equipment) are obviously lagging behind private enterprises in all aspects. Their competitiveness is at a disadvantage and they have eliminated production capacity.
The continuous commissioning of new production capacity by private enterprises will rapidly reduce the market share of polyester raw materials (PX, PTA, MEG) of traditional enterprises. Therefore, the future development strategy must be laid out from the following points:
1. Control the pace of PTA project production
The concentrated release of PTA production capacity will make it difficult for the market to digest in the short term, which will affect the PTA industry; on the other hand, it will lead to tight supply of PX raw materials, push up PTA costs, and even cause the PTA industry to fall into Total loss.
2. Encourage the linkage between PTA projects and PX projects to promote the coordinated development of PX and PTA
At present, the domestic PX self-sufficiency rate is only about 60%. With the successive commissioning of large-scale domestic refining integration, the self-sufficiency rate of PX will be greatly improved, which will enhance the domestic bargaining power for PX and have a significant effect on the release of PTA production capacity. In addition, for new PX projects, we should also consider optimizing regional resources and reducing the potential impact of long-distance PX transportation on the environment.
3. Take advantage of regional and integration advantages to occupy the market share of imported products and even prepare for the development of overseas markets.
In order to maintain the balance between domestic supply and demand, especially those PTA projects without vertical integration background, the convergence plan of PTA production and sales should be completed as soon as possible to cope with the fierce competition in the PTA market.
4. The industrial layout of domestic PTA should be coordinated with the trend of the textile industry developing towards the mainland
Under the pressure of rising labor costs and land costs, many coastal textile companies have shown a tendency to move inland. As the main upstream raw material, PTA should also consider migrating inward from the coastal and Yangtze River Delta areas that were originally concentrated. Optimize the layout of the PTA industry, rationalize transportation methods, coordinate the balance of the industrial chain and the balance of regional raw materials, and further enhance the comprehensive competitiveness of enterprises and industries.
Enterprises should strengthen the overall coordination and linkage of the industrial chain to further form competitive synergies! </p
