The supply of polyester staple fiber has increased significantly in recent years. In 2020, the industry still plans to put into operation more than 600,000 tons of equipment. However, the follow-up of traditional downstream demand is not as strong as the increase in supply. The contradiction between supply and demand in the industry may be intensified again. , the market competition situation is also becoming increasingly fierce.
Specifically, in 2019, the direct-spun polyester staple fiber industry put into production a total of 620,000 tons, with a total production capacity of 7.901 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.52%. The newly added production capacity is mainly based on conventional cotton staple fiber and filled staple fiber. The specific details are as follows:
From the perspective of actual output, in 2019, The actual output of domestic direct-spun polyester staple fiber was 6.2526 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.46%. Because since 2019, as private large-scale refining and chemical companies have been put into operation one after another, polymerization costs have continued to decline during the year, resulting in a very obvious price advantage for direct-spun polyester staple fiber. The market has replaced part of the recycled staple fiber market in many areas, especially filled staple fiber. Fiber replacement is more obvious.
As shown in the figure above, due to the high existence of direct spinning polyester staple fiber and high-strength and low-elongation imitation Dahua in the downstream fields Generally speaking, when the price difference between the two exceeds 2,000 yuan/ton, the substitution advantage of recycling is more obvious; and when the price difference between the two is less than 1,000 yuan/ton, the substitution advantage of recycling will diminish.
In 2019, the development of large private refining and chemical companies has caused the cost of polyester to drop significantly. The price of direct-spun polyester staple fiber has been falling. However, the actual decline of recycled staple fiber is limited due to cost constraints, and the price difference between the two has dropped to 500 yuan again. / ton or less, and there is almost no price difference in certain time periods. Especially in the field of filling, due to the narrow long-term price difference, the operating load of recycled hollow companies continues to be low, and the inventory pressure continues to be high, which also prompts some companies to start thinking about transformation or switching to the original hollow market.
So although the continuous increase in supply has gradually revealed the contradiction of oversupply in the market, the average profit of enterprises in 2019 is still around 200 yuan/ton, and the overall ending inventory is relatively large. Low, so the direct spinning polyester staple fiber industry is still expected to have some new production starts in 2020.
As shown in the above table, the direct-spun polyester staple fiber industry still has more than 620,000 tons of new production capacity planned to be put into production in 2020. By then, the industry will have new production capacity It will reach 8.521 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.85%. However, the new production capacity may tend to be mainly filled and differentiated short fibers, while for conventional varieties, in addition to price advantages, the competitiveness in other aspects will weaken significantly.
Taken together, the macro situation in 2020 will still be complex and changeable, with many uncertain factors. The polyester staple fiber industry will still face the backdrop of an uncertain trade environment and another change in the domestic supply and demand pattern. Bigger challenge. </p
