On Tuesday, Beijing time, the General Administration of Customs released the latest import and export data.
In December 2019, the scale of foreign trade import and export, export and import all hit monthly historical peaks. At the same time, imports, exports, and imports all hit record highs throughout the year.
In December, China’s import and export reached 3.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%. Among them, exports were 1.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 9%; imports were 1.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.7%.
In 2019, China’s total import and export value of goods trade was 31.54 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. Among them, exports were 17.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 5%; imports were 14.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6%; the trade surplus was 2.92 trillion yuan, an increase of 25.4%.
As for the record performance of December’s data, Huang Guohua, head of the Statistical Analysis Department of the General Administration of Customs, explained that there are mainly the following reasons:
First, since November 2019, China’s manufacturing PMI has expanded for two consecutive months, driving an increase in imports of some raw materials and energy products. For example, in December, imports of iron ore, copper ore, and refined oil increased by 17.2%, 31.9%, and 10% respectively, pushing up the import scale.
Second, affected by the rise in international market prices, the average import price of some bulk commodities has increased. For example, the average price of iron ore imports rose by 18% in December, driving the overall import growth by 1.5 percentage points while the import volume increased by 17.2%.
Third, Sino-US economic and trade consultations have released positive signals and business confidence has increased. In December, exports of toys, plastic products, and furniture increased by 26.1%, 22.7%, and 14.2% respectively. The General Administration of Customs conducts online questionnaire surveys on 3,000 foreign trade companies every month. The survey data in November and December show that the number of companies that are optimistic about the export situation in the next two to three months is increasing, and the number in December reached 2018 The highest value since the second half of the year.
In addition, there is another reason. China’s import and export dropped in December 2018, down 1.4%. In other words, the year-on-year base in December 2018 was relatively low, and foreign trade in December 2019 was in the nature of restorative growth.
“The Sino-US economic and trade agreement is beneficial to both parties”
Zou Zhiwu said that after China and the United States signed the first-phase economic and trade agreement, China will not be able to increase its imports from the United States. It will affect the import of products from other countries, because China has a huge market and its trade is also diversified. The signing of the agreement by both parties will make Sino-US trade achieve new progress on the basis of mutual benefit and win-win results, which will be beneficial to both countries and the world.
As for the main reasons for China’s foreign trade growth against the trend, Zou Zhiwu said that he believes that there are mainly the following three aspects:
The first is the stability of the domestic economy. The basic trend of China’s economy being stable and improving in the long term has not changed.
The second is that the overall resilience of the Chinese economy is relatively strong, and this resilience is also reflected in the field of foreign trade. The Chinese economy has strong resilience, potential and room for maneuver, and this resilience is also present in the field of foreign trade.
The third is the continued release of the effects of stabilizing foreign trade policies.
As for the foreign trade situation in 2020, Zou Zhiwu said that the current world economic growth continues to slow down and is still in a period of deep adjustment after the international financial crisis. Global economic uncertainty and risks Challenges have increased significantly, and the external environment faced by foreign trade development remains severe and complex. However, with the deepening of supply-side structural reform, the domestic “six stability” policies and measures continue to be implemented and bear fruit, the business environment continues to improve, the vitality of market entities continues to increase, the foreign trade structure continues to optimize, and the long-term trend of accelerating power conversion has not changed. It is expected that China’s foreign trade will continue to maintain an overall stable growth trend in 2020, and high-quality development will reach a new level.
Import and export trade will benefit at the end of the year. Will the textile business be good in 2020?
The foreign trade market in 2019 was relatively stable, and even the traditional peak season lacked some heat. The main culprit for this situation can be said to be the Sino-US trade war.
Due to the ongoing trade war between China and the United States, and the recurring relationship, it has shown an unstable state. Based on this background, it has affected the orders received by textile companies and greatly reduced the number of fabric orders received. In particular, every time news of additional tariffs comes out, it directly affects textile companies, and in serious cases they are even forced to cancel orders.
The person in charge of a large foreign trade company in the Shengze area said that the Sino-US trade war has a profound impact on our company. Sometimes we encounter customers canceling orders. , Sino-US trade relations are unstable, and the relationship with American customers is equally unstable, which will affect subsequent orders.
Since 2019, affected by the uncertainty of Sino-US trade relations, the production of the textile industry chain has slowed down and industry profits have declined. Many textile foreign trade bosses said that when the trade war first started, the impact of orders placed by American customers was relatively large. Large, the other party is more cautious in placing orders. However, in December 2019, the good news of Sino-US trade came out again, and the market did usher in a wave of concentrated orders. However, feedback to the weaving market now everyone basically accepts this status quo, and is not satisfied with the news. Digestion and reactions are also relatively calm.
“U.S. customers have canceled several orders this year, and some orders have…I had already knitted it on the machine, but it was canceled temporarily, which caused a certain amount of losses. So I didn’t dare to stock up more at the end of this year, for fear that the policy would be reversed next year. “A foreign trade boss in the Wujiang area said.
But it is undeniable that although the easing of Sino-US trade will greatly boost the future market, China’s textile and apparel share squeezed by Southeast Asian countries has gone nowhere. Now!
In the past two or three years, the textile industry in Southeast Asia has developed rapidly, especially Vietnam, which has become the world’s largest textile exporter. In the first nine months of this year, Vietnam’s textile and clothing exports were approximately US$29.24 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.23% %.
How the additional tariffs will be borne has troubled Sino-US trade. No matter who bears it, and no matter what the proportion, it will weaken the competitiveness of Chinese textiles and clothing in the US market. Chinese textiles and clothing The market share in the United States will be partially squeezed out by the rising Southeast Asian textile industry.
A foreign trade textile manager said: “One of my main customers had an order volume of US$1.5 million last year. This year’s order volume But it’s less than $500,000. According to customers, they were hesitant to choose Chinese manufacturers or Southeast Asian manufacturers this year, so they placed part of their orders with Southeast Asian manufacturers. “Another foreign trade textile salesman said: “One of my customers got a price from Cambodia this year that was 3% higher than my quotation, but there is zero tariff on Cambodian imports, and 12% tariff on Chinese imports, which is 9 points. The customer chose Cambodia without hesitation. ”
In general, foreign trade companies in 2019 were greatly affected by external factors, with a small volume of orders and a large decline in profit margins. After a dull year In 2020, cloth bosses are full of expectations for the market sentiment in 2020. The editor believes that whether the foreign trade market will improve next year depends largely on the Sino-US trade situation. Although judging from the current foreign trade order volume, companies are receiving The single numbers have improved to a certain extent, but it is not enough to drive the entire market. Therefore, textile companies still need to pay close attention to the Sino-US trade war in the future.</p
