The PTA market was weak and volatile before the holiday, and the market price was under pressure due to expectations of spot surplus. However, the restart of Yishenghua’s 2.2 million tons/year PTA device was delayed, and the 1.25 million tons/year PTA device in Hengli Phase 4 was put into operation later than As expected, and with January futures delivery imminent, PTA spot prices are relatively resilient.
At the end of December, Zhongyu Information once estimated that the theoretical surplus of PTA in January was 650,000-680,000 tons. However, some PTA devices experienced new problems in January. After re-estimation in mid-January, it was found that the actual excess of PTA in January was lower than previously expected.
Sichuan Energy Investment’s 1 million tons/year PTA device was postponed to be put into operation after the Spring Festival. In January, the new loss was about 23 days and the output was about 63,000 tons. Yisheng Hua’s 2.2 million tons/year PTA unit was originally planned to restart around January 12. The restart is currently postponed and there is no specific official restart time. There are rumors that it may be around the Spring Festival. If the restart is delayed by 10-20 days, new losses will be added. The output is about 60,000-120,000 tons; Yisheng Ningbo No. 1 650,000 tons/year PTA unit was unexpectedly shut down on January 1 and there is no specific restart time. There will be an additional loss of about 54,000 tons in January. Overall, January The total new lost output of Yisheng is about 114,000-174,000 tons, which mainly depends on the restart time of Yisheng Hua’s 2.2 million tons/year PTA device. Of Hengli’s 2.5 million tons/year new production capacity, 1.25 million tons/year will be put into operation on January 8 and about 85% will be started on January 14. The other 1.25 million tons/year PTA device is planned to be put into operation in late January. In January, it will be 85% The start-up load is estimated based on the operation of one set of 1.25 million tons/year for 21 days and the other set of 1.25 million tons/year for 10 days. The theoretical output of Hengli’s fourth-phase PTA device in January was around 100,000 tons, which was higher than that at the end of December based on 20- After 23 days of full-load operation, it is estimated that the new lost output will be 100,000-130,000 tons. Zhuhai BP’s 1.1 million tons/year PTA unit was overhauled for about 14 days around January 3, with a theoretical loss of about 33,000 tons of output. Fuhaichuang’s 4.5 million tons/year PTA unit was operational at about 65% in early January. The operating load increased to 90% from around January 10, which is an increase of about 10,000 tons compared with the estimated output at the end of December based on the operating load of 80% in January.
Based on the known operation conditions of the PTA device in mid-January, it is estimated that the new PTA loss output in January is about 300,000-390,000 tons (Sichuan Energy Investment – about 63,000 tons, Yisheng – about 11.4/174,000 tons , Hengli -10/130,000 tons, BP -33,000 tons or so, Fuhaichuang +10,000 tons), as of January 14, Zhongyu Information estimates that the actual PTA surplus in January is about 290,000-350,000 tons.
Terminal printing and dyeing factories began to enter holiday mode around January 7. On January 14, the starting load of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang dropped to about 30%. Terminal factories ended pre-holiday stocking, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere increased. In mid-January The average daily production and sales of polyester filament are around 20%-40%, and the overall production and sales are light. The operating load of polyester has dropped to about 75%-76%, and the demand for PTA continues to decline. The pressure of PTA surplus is still high, and the market continues to be under pressure.
With the Sino-U.S. trade Negotiating a phased settlement, the United States removed China’s label as a currency manipulator, and the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar appreciated from 6.96 on January 1 to 6.88 on January 14, an appreciation of about 11.5%. Due to the rapid appreciation of the RMB and PX falling by about US$26/ton in mid-to-early January, the theoretical processing fee of PTA was about 580 yuan/ton on January 14, rising back to near the cost line. If PTA production no longer loses money in the short term, the PTA operating load will pick up again. However, in the long term, the PTA market will continue to face excess pressure. Zhongyu Information Anguang speculates that PTA factories will reduce production from time to time in 2020 based on actual losses to support the market. . </p
