[Introduction] The cotton harvest in 2019/2020 has basically come to an end. Due to the implementation requirements of Xinjiang target price subsidies, the subsidy time for Xinjiang seed cotton this year is subject to delivery before January 31, so there is basically no remaining seed cotton in Xinjiang. The pace of seed cotton sales in the mainland is relatively slow, and some cotton farmers still hold a small amount of cotton. Overall, this year’s seed cotton sale has come to an end. Looking back on this year’s seed cotton sale, how is it different from previous years, and what inspiration does it have for the future market?
First of all, from the comparison of Xinjiang seed cotton price trends this year and last year Look, the price of seed cotton in 2019/2020 is significantly lower than last year. According to monitoring, the average price of machine-picked cotton at the beginning of the scale this year was 4.6 yuan/kg, compared with 6.1 yuan/kg last year. The main reason is that China and the United States imposed tariffs on each other on July 6, 2018, and the trade war officially broke out. After the new cotton was launched that year, the price of seed cotton also continued to decline due to the escalation of trade friction between the two countries. After this year’s new cotton hits the market, the trade war between China and the United States continues to ease, providing opportunities for cotton prices to rebound.
Therefore, it can be clearly seen from Figure 1 and Figure 2 that the price of seed cotton opened high and moved low in 2018, while the trend of opening low and moving high in 2019 was obvious (due to the mining trend in northern Xinjiang). The collection is before mid-November, and after December, due to the decline in seed cotton delivery quality and subsequent price decline, the trend here is mainly compared with the data before mid-November).
Figure 1
Secondly, from the comparison of the price difference between hand-picked cotton and machine-picked cotton, the difference this year is smaller than last year. In 2018, the price difference between hand-picked cotton and machine-picked cotton lasted for more than 1 yuan/kg for nearly a month. According to monitoring, during the sale of seed cotton this year, some ginners made preparations to expand their profit margins. After the price of hand-picked seed cotton increased, they turned to purchasing machine-picked cotton, making it difficult for hand-picked cotton to enjoy the exclusive upward advantage. At the same time, after experiencing a sharp decline in the first half of 2019, the cotton ginners were extremely cautious at the beginning of the opening of the scale, and they were still uncertain about the purchase price, which also led to a delay in cotton processing this year compared with last year.
Figure 2
Furthermore, during the peak sales period of seed cotton this year, it is common for ginners to rush to harvest. At the same time, there are rampant talks about reducing cotton production. However, as of the 14th of this month, the cumulative processing volume of cotton in Xinjiang has reached 4.94 million tons. Some institutions predict that a significant production reduction may be Market “illusion”. According to research, the purchase of seed cotton by some ginners in Xinjiang this year has indeed decreased compared with previous years, but more of the reasons may be due to the increase or transfer of production capacity in Xinjiang.
Since the Xinjiang Corps began to cancel the Five Unifications in 2018, a large number of Xinjiang Corps ginning companies have transferred the processing and sales of lint to some large-scale companies through outsourcing and other forms. enterprise. In addition, some industry players are optimistic about the profits of the machine-picked production line in Beijiang. At the beginning of the year, the contracting fees of some ginneries rose sharply. In order to ensure the realization of processing profits, the contractors had to set the target processing volume as the standard. In addition, cotton farmers in some areas did give feedback that cotton Yields per unit area dropped significantly, leading to another rush to harvest seed cotton.
Yesterday, the first phase of the Sino-US trade agreement was officially signed, and it is expected that the two countries will continue to reduce mutual tariff rates in the future. The impact of Sino-US trade friction on the cotton market next year may weaken. , In addition, the impact of the XPCC’s restructuring continues to deepen, with peripheral enterprises carving up production capacity in Xinjiang, and competition among all parties will increase in the later period, making it more likely that seed cotton will be harvested again. </p
