Introduction: Entering 2020, the polyester market has risen moderately, and the overall polyester factory inventory is at a reasonably low level. The mentality of the industry is slightly relieved, but the number of new downstream orders after the year is not large. The hidden dangers are still there, so the maintenance intensity of polyester factories this year is still greater than the same period last year!
Today will usher in the Lunar New Year. No matter how the upstream polyester raw materials fluctuate, the polyester market remains flat. In addition, polyester factories have officially entered the inventory accumulation period, so multiple sets of polyester factory equipment After successive maintenance, the operating rate of the polyester factory also dropped significantly to around 77% that day. According to statistics from Jin Lianchuang, there are still 4.7 million tons of polyester devices that will be inspected one after another, which will affect the polyester operating rate by 7-8%. At present, the maintenance intensity of polyester factories has reached 10.58 million tons. Together with the 1.06 million tons of production capacity that has been restarted, it is close to the total maintenance capacity of the polyester market during the Spring Festival last year of 13.7 million tons. During the Spring Festival last year, the lowest daily operating rate of polyester was Around 72%. Please see Table 1 for details.
Table 1 List of polyester enterprise maintenance before and after the Spring Festival in 2020
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
Taken together, although the current maintenance intensity of polyester factories is approximately 2.84 million tons more than the same period last year, the maintenance intensity of mainstream polyester factories has not increased significantly. For example, Tongkun and Xinfengming each only overhauled about 750,000 tons of production capacity, and all of them were concentrated before the Spring Festival; Shenghong planned to overhaul a total of 500,000 tons of production capacity, one before the Spring Festival and one after the Spring Festival; Hengyi Group only involved The production capacity is about 650,000 tons, which has not yet been implemented; Hengli Group has a production capacity of 600,000 tons, all after the Spring Festival. Compared with their own total production capacity of one million tons, these maintenance production capacities are very rare.
According to statistics from Jin Lianchuang, the maintenance of polyester factories this year has been intensive. First of all, the maintenance of factories in Fujian has increased its production capacity by about 1.55 million tons compared with previous years. In addition, the ancient towpath polyester equipment has lost capacity due to factory expansion. The transformation requires all overhauls, which will increase the production capacity by about 900,000 tons compared with previous years. However, this is also the original transformation plan for the second half of 2019, which has been postponed until after the Spring Festival. The remaining small part is caused by the pressure of losses on some factories. Of course, the growth of the production capacity base of the polyester market cannot be ignored. Overall, before the Spring Festival in 2020, the supply and demand fundamentals of the polyester market are acceptable, and the maintenance intensity of polyester factories before the Spring Festival has been significantly higher than the same period last year. In addition, after the Spring Festival, there are still many sets of mainstream polyester factory equipment planned for maintenance, and No new polyester plant capacity has been released yet, so after the Spring Festival, there may be some positive support for the supply side of the polyester market. However, after the Spring Festival, the resumption of work of downstream factories may not be ideal, and throughout the first quarter, the supply pressure of the upstream raw material market is high, and hidden dangers such as international trade disputes cannot be ignored. 2020 is destined to be a year when polyester factories will face more challenges! </p
