Fabric Products,Fabric Information,Fabric Factories,Fabric Suppliers Fabric News The market opens today! The “black swan” of the epidemic strikes: How will the futures market go? Where should the chemical fiber industry chain go? (Rise and fall of chemical fiber product prices during the Spring Festival and prediction of subsequent trends) ​

The market opens today! The “black swan” of the epidemic strikes: How will the futures market go? Where should the chemical fiber industry chain go? (Rise and fall of chemical fiber product prices during the Spring Festival and prediction of subsequent trends) ​



During the Spring Festival, foreign commodity markets are “green”. The prevention and control of the new coronavirus epidemic continues, and the global market has also been widely affected. Due to t…

During the Spring Festival, foreign commodity markets are “green”.

The prevention and control of the new coronavirus epidemic continues, and the global market has also been widely affected. Due to the impact of the new coronavirus, the global commodity market was green during the Spring Festival. Due to the impact of the epidemic, market expectations for commodity demand are relatively pessimistic.

(Source: ccf)

Learning from history, how previous epidemic events have affected the global financial market

On January 20, the National Health Commission decided to include pneumonia infected by the new coronavirus into the management of Class B notifiable infectious diseases, and adopted Prevention and control measures for Class A infectious diseases. This level is consistent with the SARS level in 2003.

It is worth noting that on January 24, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that it would not temporarily identify the epidemic as a “public health emergency of international concern.”

Since 2009, WHO has declared a total of five “public health emergencies of international concern”, namely:

The outbreak of influenza A H1N1 in 2009;

The polio epidemic in 2014;

The Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014;

The “Zika” epidemic in 2015-2016 ;

The 2018 Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (announced in July 2019).

A review of institutional analysis shows that the emergence of previous global health risk events has had mixed impacts on global financial markets, including A-shares. Among them, according to the analysis of CICC, further comparison of the performance of the MSCI global market and the markets as the main outbreak places during the epidemic period found that the impact of the epidemic on the markets of the main outbreak places was generally greater than other markets in the world.

Prediction after the chemical fiber industry chain: Inventory accumulation may be higher than expected, and the weakening market after the holiday has become a Inevitable trend

The epidemic has had a strong impact on the chemical fiber industry chain. From the perspective of the entire industry chain: the upstream products of chemical fiber are mostly integrated and polymerized devices, with large-scale intensive production, and the impact on supply is small; while terminal textile enterprises are intensive enterprises and tend to have a lot of parking and holidays, which has a considerable impact. At the same time, many provinces and cities have issued emergency notices stating that all types of enterprises (except those related to the operation of public utilities, epidemic prevention and control, people’s daily necessities, and other important enterprises related to the national economy and people’s livelihood) must not resume work earlier than the Lantern Festival.

Therefore, terminal textile enterprises have no plans to start up their devices before the Spring Festival in the short term, and the overall terminal demand has declined significantly. For the upstream raw materials PTA and MEG, weakening demand has further dragged down the market, and inventory accumulation may be higher than expected. A weakening market after the holiday has become an inevitable trend.

1. PTA ethylene glycol: The resumption of work of downstream polyester industry and terminal weaving industry factories has been postponed, and the weakening demand has further dragged down the market

There has been little change in the start-up of PTA companies. Affected by the plummeting international oil prices, the cost side has loosened support for PTA. At the same time, due to the delay in the start-up of companies in many places across the country, the holidays for workers in PTA downstream factories have been extended, and the start-up time of various factory equipment has been delayed. Therefore, PTA downstream Terminal demand will decline significantly, PTA market inventory will increase, supply pressure will increase, and the supply and demand pattern will continue to weaken, which will have a greater impact on the post-holiday PTA market, and the PTA market is expected to face weakening pressure.

Oil prices have fallen, and negative factors on the cost side of ethylene glycol have intensified. Due to the rapid spread and wide spread of the epidemic, large-scale traffic suspensions and road blockades occurred across the country, which caused certain disruptions to the shipment and transportation of ethylene glycol and its downstream products. At the same time, affected by the government’s policy of delaying the start of operations, the resumption of work of downstream polyester industry and terminal weaving industry factories has been postponed, and the weakening demand has further dragged down the market. During the Spring Festival, the operation of ethylene glycol companies remained normal, and the time for companies to accumulate inventory was extended. Social inventory accumulation may be higher than expected. The contradiction between supply and demand of ethylene glycol is gradually deepening, and it is expected that ethylene glycol will face greater downward pressure after the holidays.

2. Polyester market: The normal recovery cycle of the market has been delayed, and it may be difficult for both domestic and foreign sales.

This round of epidemic has affected PET It also had an impact. Due to the extensive time and scope involved, domestic consumption of bottled drinking water has been relatively reduced. Many large beverage companies such as C’estbon have voluntarily donated large quantities to the epidemic-stricken areas, but the overall beverage inventory consumption is relatively limited; while small beverage companies In response to the call to postpone the start of construction, the domestic consumption of bottle-grade PET will be significantly reduced. However, domestic bottle tablet companies are all in operation during the holidays. Faced with the delay in downstream operations, the inventory accumulated by companies during the holidays will increase significantly, and they will face greater sales pressure after the holiday. Dalian Yisheng and Chenggao units both have start-up plans in February. , which will have a greater impact on the later market. In addition, in the face of the continued decline of international crude oil, this has put pressure on the polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol markets. In the absence of raw material support, the bottle-grade PET market will face greater weakening pressure after the holidays.

This fierce epidemic has affected many industries in our country.This has caused a huge impact, and the polyester fiber industry is no exception. The panic and negative effects it has brought to the market cannot be underestimated. Among them, polyester staple fiber is used downstream in three fields: spinning, non-woven and filling. Spunlaced non-woven fabric can be used as an isolation layer in masks.

However, for the polyester staple fiber industry, there are fewer companies that can produce spunlace non-woven fabrics, and even fewer can be used for medical purposes. Therefore, the epidemic will be beneficial to the polyester staple fiber industry. limited. In particular, the major chemical fiber provinces of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Fujian have announced that their working hours will be postponed to February 9, which will inevitably delay the normal recovery cycle of the polyester fiber market. And I heard that some export orders have begun to have refunds. By then, the polyester fiber market will have difficulties in both domestic and foreign sales. Affected by this, the polyester fiber market will be weak after the holiday.

3. Terminal textile market:There are many companies shutting down in the market, and the export market will face considerable pressure

The epidemic will have a negative impact on the textile industry Enterprises have also had a considerable impact. Although my country’s industrial textile industry has actively responded to the national call, on the first day of the first lunar month, more than 30 enterprises in the industry contacted by the China Industrial Textiles Industry Association have resumed production one after another, rushing to supply national materials. The first line of protection. It is understood that other manufacturers of masks, protective clothing and other commodities have also resumed operations from the fifth to the seventh day of the first lunar month. For manufacturing companies that started operations early during the Spring Festival, the current order volume is equivalent to the normal order volume of 2-3 months, but the proportion of comprehensive polyester usage is relatively small.

In addition, my country’s civil textile industry has also actively responded to the national call. Most textile factories and printing and dyeing factories have decided to postpone the start of operations to the fifteenth or seventeenth day of the first lunar month, while textile trading markets such as China Textile City have also postponed their operations to the first lunar month. After the 15th, the specific time is to be determined. According to Jin Lianchuang’s understanding, civilian textile factories have a large inventory of finished products before the holiday. After delaying production and transactions, shipment pressure may increase in February.

Affected by the new coronavirus in China, the flow of civilian textiles may weaken in the short term, and domestic demand may remain sluggish. At the same time, the World Health Organization still determines the risk level of the epidemic faced by China as “very high”, and my country’s civilian textile export market will also face considerable export pressure. The effective control of the new pneumonia epidemic will continue to affect the trend of the textile industry in the first quarter.

Taken together: The control of the epidemic and the resumption of downstream work are still the focus of attention at present. As there are many companies shut down in the current market, especially labor-intensive textile companies, and the export of clothing and textiles is blocked, the overall demand for the chemical fiber industry has shown a clear weakening trend. In the case of little change in the supply of chemical fiber raw materials, it is necessary to continue to accumulate inventory. It is an inevitable trend that the chemical fiber industry chain market may not be able to escape the weak market after the holiday.

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Author: clsrich

 
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