As expected by the market, most futures trading varieties were all green on the first trading day after the holiday, or even dropped to the limit.
Various emotions, but no need to panic. It should be said that this is the concentrated release and catharsis of various amounts of energy accumulated over a long period of time. It is the result of multi-frequency resonance of multiple factors at home and abroad. It is a market pricing process in which multiple investors fully participate.
The futures market is originally an open pricing platform where various information and forces work together and collide together. The more fully the information accumulation and power are involved, the more fair and reasonable the prices it creates will be, and the higher the market recognition and authority will be. In this price generation process, as objective entities, rational and irrational factors often go hand in hand. Understanding the unique price formation mechanism of the futures market can help greatly reduce unnecessary worry or panic.
We should believe in the market, its flexibility and self-healing capabilities, and the industry’s composure and effective response.
After the baptism of the SARS epidemic in 2003 and the severe test of the global financial crisis in 2008, the domestic futures market Already possessing a lot of confidence that “a light boat has crossed a thousand mountains”, real industry enterprises have also effectively reaped the benefits of participating in the futures market.
In fact, the “green, fat, red and thin” disk also provides optimistic information: although many varieties The trend opens low and moves low, but it does not lose its “assertion” and maintains a stable rhythm of market interpretation. There are even varieties that resolutely go out of independent market, or even open low and move high. This should be understood as a manifestation of the domestic futures market becoming more mature. At the same time, this can also be regarded as an inevitable result of the integrated development of the futures market and the real economy.
Of course, in the face of more extreme market conditions, we must also have a calm mind and respond appropriately. After all, the futures market is a professional market for managing risks. We need to correctly guide investors’ behavior in participating in the market, accurately predict the effects of risk control measures introduced, and provide more meticulous customer service to ensure that systemic risks do not occur.
Winning the battle to prevent and control the epidemic is a major political task at present. While the futures industry is making every effort to ensure the smooth progress of transactions, We are also making active efforts to help the whole society overcome the epidemic.
There is no doubt that the impact of the epidemic on our country’s economy is temporary. The fundamentals of long-term positive and high-quality growth of my country’s economy have not changed. Positive factors in economic development continue to increase, and the inherent resilience of the economy continues to increase. This has laid a solid foundation and formed a strong support for the stable operation of the futures market.
As extreme market conditions subside and calm down, the futures industry still needs to firmly pursue the direction of innovative development and not forget to serve the real economy. The original intention is to accelerate the supply of varieties and systems to further promote the in-depth integration of industry and finance, actively introduce industrial institutions and value funds to rapidly expand market scale and capacity, and accelerate the pace of opening up to significantly increase the weight of international pricing.
Spring is here and everything will get better and better.
On the first trading day of the Year of the Rat, A-shares fell more than 8% at the opening, more than 3,000 stocks fell by the limit, and many types of commodity futures fell by the limit at the opening. In contrast, northbound capital inflows from the stock market reached 18.191 billion yuan, setting a single-day record.
As of the close of the day , the Shanghai Composite Index fell 7.72%, rubber, crude oil, iron ore and other futures fell to the limit throughout the day but did not open. The ten-year government bond futures rose 1.37% to close at 100.970 yuan, a new high in 3 years. The price of gold futures, which has hedging properties, rose 2.68%, closing at 359.68 yuan/gram.
Current situation: Most of the worries have been digested
Worries have continued throughout the Spring Festival holiday, and the external market has plummeted. No illusions were left to the domestic market. As expected, emotions were released intensively on the first trading day after the holiday.
Would it be a different story if there was no new coronavirus-infected pneumonia epidemic? During the long holiday, Xu Kai (pseudonym), general manager of a private equity fund in Shanghai, sat at home and thought over and over. The products he managed did not adjust or reduce positions before the holiday. “It will all pass,” he comforted himself and the team many times.
“Some of the products managed by our company use hedging tools, and some are pure long positions. Pure long positions will bear the risk. The pressure is very high.” Xu Kai’s decision was not to close the position and let the team use Singapore A50 stock index futures to do some hedging. “We are very confident in the stocks we hold.”
Measure gold assets, taking into account the Spring FestivalMore than 20 varieties including � have dropped their limits. Some market participants said that the futures market may still face significant fluctuations in the coming period.
In fact, during long holidays, domestic futures exchanges will increase the trading margin ratio of some products. In order to prevent and control market risks during the long holiday, the “guarantee increase” before the Spring Festival has eased the risk control pressure of futures companies.
Zhao Weixia told reporters that increasing the trading margin ratio and clarifying the rules in advance before the holiday will help futures companies predict market risks. judgment and preparation.
Xu Danliang also said that during special periods, the probability of significant market fluctuations is higher, and it is very important to maintain a high margin ratio during holidays. If necessary, it will help futures companies reduce risk control pressure.
“Faced with the long Spring Festival holiday and the market fluctuations caused by the epidemic, the company’s risk control pressure is relatively high, and high-risk customers A sharp increase. In this regard, we have formulated an contingency plan for trading risk control and market opening, and have made deployments in terms of staffing and epidemic response, pre-market risk calculation and notification, intraday liquidation plan, and post-market risk calculation. Market opening On the first day, the company’s risk control was generally stable and controllable.” The above-mentioned person in charge of Guosen Futures said that although there were many high-risk customers, the company was fully prepared and dealt with them in a timely manner, and no short positions or customer complaints occurred.
Qi Hongen said frankly that he was the “lucky one” in this market, “because our branch is newly established , the number of customers is small, and we can track them in place. As early as a year ago, we reminded customers point-to-point to light up their positions for the holidays. After the holidays and before the market opened, we notified customers who held long orders to remind them to make a response plan after the market opens. Therefore, On the first trading day after the holiday, our customers are generally less affected.”
Zhao Weixia also said that on February 1, Yide Futures conducted a review of the company’s potential risk customers based on the overall situation of the external market. After sorting out the situation, stress tests were conducted on some risk control indicators, and customers with potential risks were also reminded through text messages and phone calls. With the active cooperation of customers, they were handled in accordance with established risk control measures. The company has no risks beyond its expected range. The company has also prepared late-stage risk response measures and plans.
As for the market outlook, Qi Hongen suggested that investors need to have a clear understanding of the current market situation. Although futures companies are currently coping effectively, the epidemic will not improve in the short term, and the impact on social and economic activities will be difficult to dissipate in a short period of time. Investors must be fully psychologically prepared and make long-term operational plans. They must neither be overly pessimistic nor overly pessimistic. Don’t take any chances, it’s better to be light in the near future.
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