The COVID-19 epidemic has continued to this day and has had a profound impact on the polyester industry. Although preparations for resumption of work began in mid-February, the actual resumption process is slow and the short-term market Or maintain a stalemate.
The overall inventory is much higher than the same period last year
The domestic polyester industry starts before the Spring Festival It is lower than the level of the same period last year, and the inventory level is within a controllable range. Taking polyester filament as an example, POY inventory is around a week, FDY inventory is basically more than ten days, and other varieties, such as polyester chips and polyester staple fiber inventory are at low levels. . However, due to the impact of the epidemic, except for a few medical-related industries that resumed work after the Spring Festival, all other companies were on vacation. To avoid risks, companies continued to expand the scale of maintenance, and industry starts continued to decline, with the polyester industry falling to around 68%. In the first trading week after the holiday, most polyester sales staff work remotely, while most polyester factory operators are migrant workers who are delayed in arriving at work, which has a certain impact on the operation of the company’s equipment. In addition, other reasons include the lack of auxiliary materials, such as wooden frames, foam boards, cartons, etc., inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, logistics restrictions due to road closures, delayed resumption of downstream weaving operations affecting demand, and the industry’s bearish expectations for the market outlook. This is the reason for the decline in industry starts.
It is difficult for personnel to return to work
In terms of polyester filament, After the Spring Festival, enterprises have expanded their maintenance efforts, and the equipment that was originally planned to restart after the Spring Festival has been repeatedly postponed. Except for areas with severe epidemics, most of the resumption time announced by various regions is no earlier than February 10. However, the actual situation is that in order to alleviate inventory pressure, various polyester varieties continue to expand the scale of production cuts. In the second trading week after the holiday, domestic polyester production started dropped to 59.14%, among which the start-up of polyester filament dropped significantly, from 72.44% to 60.89%. Downstream texturing and weaving companies are expected to postpone their resumption of work until the end of February. In March, the industry will be able to return to normal levels and demand will gradually increase. Although various places have introduced measures to resume work, they require non-local personnel to undergo at least a 14-day quarantine period, and the costs during the quarantine period are relatively high, which need to be borne by the personnel and enterprises themselves. Therefore, even if they are approved, the situation of enterprises resuming work is still low. It is understood that the Fujian region resumed work relatively early. Among them, the Changle region started driving in early February. However, it is still difficult to return to work manually, so the industry’s operating rate is not high.
Relevant policies have been introduced to actively promote the resumption of work
In order to stabilize economic development, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other places have recently introduced measures to resume work. In order to allow migrant workers to return to the city quickly, Hangzhou announced Charter special trains, and open special trains to areas where the epidemic has stabilized to organize employees to return to work, and the first batch is free;
Haining area guides enterprises to charter cars, charter flights, and charter special trains to pick up new and old employees to return to work, and the government provides subsidies 2/3 of the travel expenses, Haining City has opened 1,094 enterprises that have resumed work, with a resumption rate of 51% and more than 60,000 employees who have resumed work;
Huzhou region has invested 100 million yuan, It is specially used for the resumption of work and production of enterprises, and a one-time living subsidy of 1,000 yuan per person will be given to newly recruited employees;
Ningbo area encourages enterprises to expand the scale of recruitment. Ningbo stipulates that when the epidemic is lifted In the following month, for each additional person participating in social insurance in the enterprise compared with the same period last year, the enterprise will be subsidized at the standard of 500 yuan per person.
The actual resumption of work in various industrial clusters
However, the actual resumption of work is not satisfactory. Although after the middle of the month, except for the areas where the epidemic is more severe, logistics in other areas has gradually recovered. , Restrictions on highways and highways have also gradually eased. On the downstream side, few companies in yarn mills, weaving, printing and dyeing and other industries have actually resumed work, and demand has not been effectively improved. Taking polyester filament as an example, since the holiday, only a few companies have effectively completed transactions, and the daily maximum production and sales are around 30%. Most companies have not yet “opened”, and the market is still in a state of price but no market.
Haining area:
The current start-up of Haining warp knitting is around 30%, with local workers mainly working. Non-local workers are returning one after another, but they need to be quarantined for 3-7 days. It is expected to recover to about 60-70% by the end of this month. The start-up and delivery of dyeing plants are generally delayed, and delivery of orders from the year before is expected to be delayed by about one month.
Taicang and Changshu areas:
Taicang and Changshu texturing operations are currently relatively sporadic, with local employees mainly producing fine denier yarn, but there is a lack of transactions , most of the production is inventory. In the production of some machines in the large warp knitting factory in Changshu, about 50% of the better factories are operating, and the comprehensive assessment ratio is about 10-20%, with local workers mainly working. Employees from other places are returning one after another, and some large companies are sending cars to pick them up and are required to be quarantined for 14 days. It is expected that further recovery will occur at the end of February and early March, but small factories are still expected to have difficulty resuming work.
Wujiang area:
Wujiang’s water spraying and bombardment resumption has slowly begun, and the comprehensive resumption of work is still around 10% , mainly local employees of large factories resume work. It is expected that the resumption of work by the end of the month will be around 30-40%. Shengze China Oriental Silk Market is scheduled to officially open on February 21. The inventories of some sprinkler plants are relatively high and there is expected to be a greater risk of depreciation.
Xiaoshao area:
Some enterprises in Xiaoshao and Shaoxing, such as Xinghui, are resuming work. Retail businesses still lack workers and have basically not opened; circular knitting machines have not yet been effectively restarted; the dyeing factory that was originally scheduled to resume work on the 18th will be delayed due to the impact of gas supply, and the time has not yet been determined. At present, the comprehensive texturing start-up is around 10%, and the circular knitting machine is still within 10%. It is expected that there will be a large concentration of factories where workers will return and resume work after the 20th, but it will take time to open to normal levels.
Cixi area:
Cixi Jiatan is mostly retail investors and has basically not yet effectively resumed work. The factory is willing to resume work. Not high yet. It is expected to be partially restored by the end of February.
Changxing area:
Changxing has fewer people spraying water and bombing machines, and the operating rate of factories has started. It is not full, mainly because there is a lack of workers. At present, the factory is expected to resume work in batches after the 20th, but normal operation is not expected to start until March. The depreciation pressure on local spray stocks is also relatively high.
The current operating rate of looms and texturing equipment in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is not high, with a comprehensive estimate of around 10-20%. From the 20th to the 29th, a wave of concentrated workers will arrive and equipment will resume work in various places. The current isolation operation for rework workers is relatively strict in Jiangsu than in Zhejiang. Zhejiang’s green code is promoting the conditions for rework, but it still depends on the conditions for allowing workers to return from other places. The pick-up arrangements for large factories are relatively smooth. It is expected that the comprehensive resumption of work by the end of the month will reach between 30-50%.
During the “epidemic” period, due to the absence of buyers, the polyester industry Inventory levels are high. Under the pressure of high inventory, even if the polyester and downstream areas resume work as scheduled, the market will face the risk of decline. Judging from the current situation, the downstream enterprises and industries will gradually return to normal levels as early as early March. Many downstream companies also have inventory before the holiday, and they will focus on digesting the inventory in the short term. The demand for polyester filament is difficult to change. At present, some polyester companies have launched low-price promotion models, but with little effect.
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