Ethylene glycol, under the influence of the continued bad news during the holidays, opened sharply and opened lower, but the panic only lasted two transactions. After the Spring Festival, U.S. crude oil briefly fell below 50 US dollars per barrel, and then emerged from the bottom. The rebound trend has been recorded for eight consecutive trading days, and the cumulative rebound has reached about 8%. However, ethylene glycol did not show obvious performance during this period, but showed a sideways trend. This makes the current ethylene glycol The support on the cost side of glycol is once again obvious. Today, starting from the third trading day, the market has fallen into a stalemate and sideways trend. The spot price has been trading sideways around the range of 4300-4400 yuan/ton. However, there has been an end to ethylene glycol in the near future. In sideways trading, there are signs of a breakthrough rise. Let’s analyze the logical support for the above judgment.
The darkest time is over, The bottom support level of ethylene glycol has been proven
The first two trading days after the Spring Festival are the darkest period for ethylene glycol. During the Spring Festival, international crude oil continued to decline, with a cumulative decline of After the domestic financial market opened after the holiday, stock market futures were flooded with grief, and most futures products showed a downward trend. Against this background, ethylene glycol dropped to a price near 4250, and did not continue to fall, indicating that The important support level of 4,200 yuan/ton has obvious support in this year’s market. Without extremely negative circumstances, it will be difficult to break through during the year.
International crude oil prices continue to rebound, and ethylene glycol cost support has been strengthened
Ethylene glycol plants are operating at a loss in all processes. As costs rise, if ethylene glycol maintains its current price, the cost pressure on ethylene glycol plants will increase significantly.
The post-holiday inventory accumulation phenomenon has not occurred anywhere. The inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port has dropped sharply compared with last year. Although this year’s Spring Festival holiday is super long, the public health year has led to the start of terminal weaving operations. With continuous delays, the operating rate of polyester continues to decline. According to Longzhong data, the current operating rate of polyester is only 58%, a decrease of 30% from the same period last year. However, even under this background, ethylene glycol has not shown any obvious signs. The inventory accumulation phenomenon. As of the 20th, the inventory in the main port of East China was around 580,000 tons, while the inventory in the same period last year was around 1.1 million tons. The inventory dropped by 47% year-on-year. Under the ultra-low inventory base, even Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemicals are in normal mass production, with monthly supply increasing by about 100,000 tons, and it will be difficult to reach the level of the same period last year within two months.
The relatively low price is the biggest temptation for funds
As of the close of trading on the 20th, the closing price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,400 yuan/ton, while the price of ethylene glycol in the same period last year was 4,900 yuan/ton. Compared with the same period last year, the price of ethylene glycol dropped by 500 yuan/ton. More than 10%, and we also mentioned above that the bottom support of ethylene glycol is 4200-4300 yuan/ton, and the current price is only around 200 yuan/ton from the bottom. In such a small space, short sellers want to make profits. It is more difficult, but on the contrary, it is easier to attract the interest of long funds. Once the trend is formed, ethylene glycol may have greater room for imagination
To sum up: After ethylene glycol has been trading sideways for nearly 10 days, there are already signs of a short break. The current spot price has exceeded the 4400 box upper track suppression, and the main futures contract has also shown a trend of increasing positions and breakthroughs. Although the breakthrough The effectiveness remains to be tested, but an effective breakthrough is a high-probability event. </p
