Fabric Products,Fabric Information,Fabric Factories,Fabric Suppliers Fabric News Sleepless nights! Global panic spreads, European and American stock markets plunge, and external commodity futures almost all closed down…

Sleepless nights! Global panic spreads, European and American stock markets plunge, and external commodity futures almost all closed down…



Yesterday, affected by the global spread of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, the international financial market suffered a “Black Monday”. Not only is the global stock market a “green s…

Yesterday, affected by the global spread of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, the international financial market suffered a “Black Monday”. Not only is the global stock market a “green sea”, crude oil and other commodity prices have also fallen sharply, and gold and other safe-haven assets have soared, even gradually rushing towards the price of 1,700 US dollars per ounce.

The South Korean stock market, which is severely affected by the epidemic, fell nearly 4% on the 24th. European and American stock markets fell across the board. Except for precious metals, almost all other commodity futures ended lower. As of the close, the U.S. S&P 500 index fell 3.35%; the European Stoxx50 index fell 3.96%; the U.S. dollar index fell 0.04%; WTI crude oil fell 3.97%; Brent crude oil fell 3.67%; London copper fell 1.33%; gold rose 0.97%. U.S. soybeans fell 1.37%; U.S. soybean meal fell 0.81%; U.S. soybean oil fell 3.21%; U.S. sugar fell 2.45%; U.S. cotton fell 2.61%; the CRB index fell 2.34%, and the BDI index rose 1.81%. Offshore RMB CNH rose 0.00% to 7.0364; Deutsche Bank’s X-Trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-share ETF fell 2.18%. The U.S. stock fear index VIX rose 46.55% to 25.03, and the options market became more concerned about the future of U.S. stocks. The GVZ (precious metal VIX) index rose 11.34%. The OVX (VIX crude oil ETF) index rose 10.20%.

亚 European stock markets plummeted across the board, U.S. stocks suffered their largest one-day decline in two years, and commodity futures were also affected

Yesterday, the global financial market encountered “Black Monday.” In the Asian market, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, Korea Composite Index and FTSE Singapore STI closed down 1.79%, 3.87% and 1.22% yesterday afternoon. European stocks then opened sharply, with Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC40 and Italy’s index closing down 4.01%, 3.94% and 1.24% early this morning. In terms of U.S. stocks, the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Index closed down 3.35%, 3.71% and 3.56% respectively. The S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Index both recorded their largest one-day declines since February 2018, while the Nasdaq Index recorded its largest one-day decline since December 2018. The VIX panic index even rose by more than 50% that day.

Under such circumstances, in addition to treasury bonds and precious metals, major Some futures varieties fell simultaneously. Especially crude oil futures, both WTI and Brent, have fallen by more than 4% on the day. The price of gold continues to rise. Even though the current international gold price has risen to a ten-year high, it has not stopped the market’s enthusiasm for continuing to do more.

It is understood that considering that most countries where the epidemic has already occurred have banned large-scale activities, closed schools, and worked remotely like China , these measures will lead to a sharp decline in refined oil consumption. Tai Won, head of metal derivatives trading at Bank of Montreal, said that after all, “investors are buying gold crazily as concerns about the epidemic drive investors to safe-haven assets.”

The spread of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic is accelerating in many countries

According to the official website of the National Health Commission, from 0 to 24:00 on February 23, 31 The province (autonomous region, municipality directly under the Central Government) and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 409 new confirmed cases, 150 new deaths (149 in Hubei and 1 in Hainan), and 620 new suspected cases.

Compared to the fact that the spread of the epidemic has been effectively controlled in my country, there is a trend of further outbreaks and spread in many overseas countries. The World Health Organization reported on the 24th that this disease has been found in at least 28 countries besides China. Among them, South Korea has surpassed Japan and become the country with the most confirmed cases after China.

In fact, according to the South Korean health department, as of 16:00 local time on the 24th, South Korea had 833 confirmed cases of new coronavirus infection and 7 deaths. Compared with 4 p.m. the day before, there were 231 more cases in one day. According to the South Korean Ministry of National Defense, the total number of infected active-duty soldiers in South Korea has also risen to 13, involving various military services. In addition, according to the U.S. Forces Korea Command, a family member of the U.S. Forces Korea living in Daegu has also been diagnosed with the new coronavirus. It is understood that the vast majority of confirmed cases are related to “super-spreading events” that occurred in churches in Daegu City. In addition, a local outbreak of infection also occurred in a hospital in Cheongdo County, North Gyeongsang Province, near Daegu City.

In Japan, according to reports from Japan Broadcasting Association TV, on February 24, 10 new cases of new coronary pneumonia were reported in Hokkaido, Tokyo, Kanagawa Prefecture, Ishikawa Prefecture and other places in Japan. A staff member of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare and a quarantine officer who were quarantined on the “Diamond Princess” cruise ship were confirmed to be infected. So far, Japansaid. Taking the European Union as an example, the impact of the epidemic on business confidence has begun to be felt. The latest survey by the Center for European Economic Research shows that the German economic confidence index dropped sharply to -15.7 in February, and the economic confidence index of the entire EU was 10.4. From a macro perspective, if China’s economy does not improve in the short term, the downside risks to the Eurozone economy and the weakness of the euro will continue.

In addition, Xu Ying said that after the first phase of the Sino-US trade agreement was reached, it has now been implemented into the specific implementation stage. The basic judgment is that the country will try its best to achieve the promised scale of commodity purchases. But the purchase progress may be affected by the epidemic. She said that the current technological friction between China and the United States and the trade friction between the United States and Europe have increased. The Federal Reserve is also assessing the potential downward risks caused by the epidemic to the economy. Short-term monetary policy is on the sidelines, and the possibility of an interest rate cut within the year still exists. Moreover, the Federal Reserve will gradually withdraw from repurchase market operations, and liquidity fluctuations deserve attention. She believes that the rise in gold volatility has just begun. In the medium and long term, the bullish view of London gold at $1,800 per ounce and Shanghai gold at $400 per gram remains unchanged.

Zhang Chen, a senior macro analyst at Yide Futures, said that the strength of precious metals in recent times is still supported by risk aversion, while another traditional safe-haven asset, the Japanese yen, has been affected by the spread of the local epidemic and The economic downturn has continued to depreciate, and it has lost its safe-haven function in the short term. Considering that the new coronavirus is more contagious than SARS, and the epidemic prevention and control work is more complex and arduous, the accelerating development of the epidemic in Japan may still put pressure on U.S. bond interest rates in the short term, but the intensity and persistence of the impact may be difficult to match that of China Compared to when the epidemic broke out. Considering that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the first half of the year is low, the support of the 10-year U.S. bond interest rate of 1.5% will still be effective.

He said that the continuous influx of funds has become an important supporting factor for gold prices. At present, ETF SPDR holdings have reached a new high since last year, New York gold holdings and CFTC long and short positions have both reached record highs. Long positions are more crowded than ever before, and short selling risks are higher. However, once the epidemic is effectively controlled globally, the pressure on U.S. bonds and gold will increase. You can pay attention to changes in positions to find the long-short critical point.

A-shares: The final “redemption”?

Although overseas was affected by the epidemic, the overall stock market plummeted. But it is worth noting that the A-share market has developed a relatively independent trend. On the 24th, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index closed down 0.28% to close at 3031.23 points; the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index rose 1.23% to close at 11772.38 points; the GEM Index rose 1.68% to close at 2263.97 points. After withstanding the pressure of the stock market opening in the Year of the Rat on February 3, the A-share market gradually recovered, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has returned to 3,000 points.

From the market’s perspective, this is mainly because although the domestic epidemic situation is still severe, the epidemic prevention and control situation is improving. In fact, the current disruption of the domestic market due to the epidemic has gradually diminished, and external disruptions have become the main factor affecting A-shares.

Market participants believe that under the current circumstances, the emotional impact is unavoidable, but the probability of systemic risks is still low. First of all, judging from the financial situation, the market is still very rich in funds. The 10-year treasury bond yield is currently as low as 2.88%, and the Shanghai interbank offered rate has continued to decline for most periods. The stock market is very active, with transaction volume exceeding one trillion for four consecutive days.

Secondly, from the perspective of market structure, the money-making effect is still very prominent. There are endless themes. Although the market index is suppressed, individual stocks rise more than they fall, and the daily limit of 100 stocks continues to appear on the market. On the 24th, 168 stocks reached their daily limit in the two cities.

Thirdly, from the perspective of market support, if the current trading volume can continue, then the brokerage sector is very likely to become one of the few super bright spots this quarter. The brokerage sector is the sector that can drive the index and popularity the most. Analysts believe that the central government has made it clear that it will introduce corresponding monetary policies in a timely manner. The central bank also stated that it will maintain reasonably sufficient liquidity. Under this situation, the market is not short of money and should continue for some time.

In addition, Fu Peng, chief economist of Northeast Securities, believes that the impact of overseas epidemics on the financial market will be relatively small. “Behind the rise of A-shares is the logic of falling risk-free interest rates and rising valuations. Overseas epidemics will have an impact on our stock market, but it will not be as obvious as overseas stock markets.” Fu Peng said. </p

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Author: clsrich

 
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