World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus announced in Geneva on the 28th that the global risk level of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic has been raised from the previous “high” to “very high”.
South Korea has 2,931 confirmed infections and 17 deaths
Japan has 940 confirmed infections and 11 deaths
Some countries have adopted entry restriction measures against Japan and South Korea, including restricting domestic personnel from traveling to Japan and South Korea and restricting the entry of Japanese and Korean personnel. If the epidemic further escalates, more countries will impose entry restrictions and suspend trade, flights, and tourism.
If the epidemic in Japan and South Korea continues to spread, and other countries escalate their restrictive measures against the two countries, it is expected to have a significant negative impact on the global economy and trade.
Japan, South Korea and China have close trade relations, and their impact on the domestic industrial chain cannot be ignored.
The close trade between Japan and South Korea and China is mainly reflected in:
1. China is the largest importer of Japan and South Korea; 2. Japan and South Korea are also major exporters of intermediate goods. China is highly dependent on intermediate goods from Japan and South Korea; 3. From the perspective of the industrial chain, Japan, South Korea and China rely on each other in the upstream, midstream and downstream of the trade field, and are a link that cannot be ignored in the domestic industrial chain. If the epidemic escalates further, as China’s important trading partners, Japan and South Korea will have a direct impact on the supply side of my country’s upstream, midstream and downstream industries due to business shutdowns, logistics shutdowns and reduced exports. The impact cannot be ignored.
The epidemic affects the global supply chain
“If only one factory can produce a certain product, once any situation occurs, the entire production line will be affected.”
We have seen some reports that customers pay for air freight. Get some accessories while shipping is getting more and more expensive. Obtaining parts by air freight becomes expensive, increasing component costs by 10% to 30%.
But if air freight is not used, the situation will be worse – without parts and components, production cannot continue, and then customers will be lost and the company will go bankrupt!
Under the impact of the epidemic, large-scale flights have been suspended, and air freight prices fluctuate and increase on an hourly basis!
As the world’s largest iPhone mobile phone OEM, Foxconn is still in the process of resuming work.
The resumption rate of Foxconn Zhengzhou Park is only one-tenth, and the production capacity has only reached about 40%-60%. Obviously, this is not good news for Apple.
Although Apple mentioned in its statement that iPhone production plants have started operations one after another, the speed of operation has not yet reached expectations, which may affect the production capacity and sales of new iPhones in March. Some research institutions have pointed out that the epidemic will reduce Apple’s sales by at least more than 1 million units.
When SARS broke out in 2003, China accounted for 2% of global GDP, but now it is 20%.
The National Bureau of Statistics of China released the “2019 National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin” on the 28th. When interpreting the communiqué, Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in 2019, China contributed about 30% to world economic growth and continued to become the main source of driving force for world economic growth.
Russian experts said: “If the spread of the epidemic cannot be stopped quickly and the epidemic continues to spread to more countries and regions, the global GDP may be lost to US$1 trillion in 2020.”</p
