According to feedback from relevant departments, as of early March, the vast majority of supervised warehouses in Xinjiang can handle railway shipments and online businesses, but there are still few warehouses that handle road shipments (or limited highway shipments). Although two warehouses stated that they can enter and exit the warehouse, due to road control, it is unknown whether vehicles can leave Xinjiang (carriage vehicles require a letter of commitment, epidemic health certificate, vehicle and driver information and activity trajectory, etc.). Therefore, road transportation in February Basically at a standstill.
According to statistics from the Cotton Logistics Branch of the China Cotton Association, as of the end of January, the turnover of commercial cotton in 43 warehouses in Xinjiang The inventory is 3.8551 million tons, a decrease of 165,300 tons from the end of December, and lower than 81,000 tons in the same period last year (excluding reserve cotton, Zheng cotton warehouse receipts and effective forecasts). So how much Xinjiang cotton is waiting to be shipped as of the end of February? The author’s rough calculation is as follows:
The amount of Xinjiang cotton warehoused in January and February was about 10,000 tons. According to data from the China Fiber Bureau, the cumulative number of public inspections of Xinjiang cotton on January 31 and February 29, 2020 were 4.8674 million tons and 4.8807 million tons respectively. That is, the increase in public inspections in February was only 13,300 tons. Considering that Xinjiang’s cotton inspections in February Due to the need to implement strict control due to the epidemic, warehouse inbound and outbound operations are suspended, so the actual warehousing volume is expected to be around 10,000 tons.
The out-of-stock volume of Xinjiang cotton in February was approximately 170,000 tons. The Wuhan Railway Bureau and warehouses have also been greatly affected by the epidemic. Cotton railway shipments have been affected to a certain extent, and the shipment volume is expected to be less than 150,000 tons. In February, Xinjiang’s cotton textile enterprises and wadding enterprises’ purchases decreased significantly, and the outbound volume in Xinjiang is expected to be 10,000-20,000 tons. The quantity of highways leaving Xinjiang in February is basically negligible, and is calculated here as 5,000 tons.
As of the end of February, the inventory of commercial cotton in Xinjiang was approximately 3.8551 million tons + 1-15-1.5-0.5 = 3.6951 million tons. Judging from the survey, the current resumption progress of large and medium-sized cotton textile enterprises in Xinjiang has been accelerated, but the resumption of production situation is not ideal (constrained by multiple factors such as personnel movement, epidemic prevention materials, logistics, etc.), and the proportion of small enterprises resuming work or production may be less than 30% , overall it takes 15-30 days for production capacity to reach normal levels (orders are another uncertain factor), so Xinjiang’s cotton consumption is expected to shrink to less than 400,000 tons from March to August, and the total amount of Xinjiang cotton to be shipped is nearly 330 tons Thousands of tons, railway and road transportation in the later period can be described as “high pressure”. </p
