After the tragic end of February, global risk assets had another dismal start in March. Global risk aversion is still clouded, and crude oil and the epidemic have become key changes in determining the market.
On Friday, OPEC+ and Russia collapsed and were unable to reach an agreement to further reduce production by 1.5 million barrels per day. On Saturday, Saudi Arabia immediately launched a “comprehensive oil price war”: it significantly lowered the pricing of its main crude oil of different grades. The extent of the reduction was the largest in at least 20 years, which means that it will increase production in an all-round way to seize the market and bring as much crude oil to the market as possible. On March 9, Brent crude oil futures opened sharply lower, falling 25% at the opening, and then fell more than 31% to US$32.14/barrel; WTI crude oil futures fell rapidly to 27% to US$30.07/barrel.
The market is generally pessimistic about the next trend of oil prices. It is understood that the last time OPEC negotiations broke down was in 2015. At that time, OPEC insisted on competing with shale oil, intending to strangle shale oil in the market. In the cradle. But we all know the result afterwards. The price of crude oil fell further from US$50 to US$27, and the market was full of panic. Although we cannot say that the current oil price will still fall to the US$30 range or even fall below US$30, the short-term downward trend is already there. establish.
Even when the Federal Reserve suddenly cut interest rates by 50 basis points this week, we did not see a decline in macro market risk appetite. Instead, the Fed’s interest rate cut increased the degree of self-doubt in the market. The only thing that can provide a bit of benefit to the oil market now is the stabilization of the macro environment, but even so, the substantial bearishness of fundamentals has made future crude oil prices full of pessimism.
So the short-term oil price is still relatively pessimistic. First, there is no obvious long logic at the macro level. Second, the fundamentals will be in a situation of oversupply for a long time. Third, the technical aspects of oil prices A breaking trend has formed. Of course, oil prices may experience an oversold rebound this week, but before the broken production reduction alliance returns to negotiations, where will the bottom of the market be? Only the market knows.
As the international oil price has suffered a bloodbath, PTA and ethylene glycol have been unable to survive alone, and there has been a larger decline. of decline. Commodity futures closed generally lower, with crude oil, PTA, ethylene glycol and many other products hitting their daily limits.
The historic low opening is the brewing of weekend emotions and a direct manifestation of the war between Russia and Russia. This extreme market situation is beyond the reach of anyone. Those who have taken on huge amounts of inventory may have a A batch of bankruptcies can be expected to affect the entire industry! my country’s crude oil processing industry will usher in a huge low-cost dividend, which will be a great benefit to my country’s overall cost of imported crude oil.
At the same time, as the overseas epidemic intensifies and spreads, import and export trade are also hindered. There are currently four major marine oil markets in the world, namely the Asian region (Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, China), accounting for 28.57% of the total global marine oil market; the European ARA region (Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp), accounting for up to 6.25%; the Mediterranean region (Fujairah) accounts for 8.25%; the American region (East Coast of America) accounts for 5.93%. The epidemic has broken out in some of the above-mentioned areas. In order to prevent the spread of the global epidemic, countries have begun to introduce policies prohibiting ships from berthing in “epidemic areas”, which has suppressed the demand for marine oil. Judging from Singapore’s residual oil inventories, inventories are currently accumulating, and the accumulation rate is significantly faster than in previous years.
In fact, before the new round of crude oil plunge, the polyester raw materials after the plunge had actually stabilized. However, if the city gate catches fire, Chiyu will inevitably suffer, and the already precarious market will Oil prices have once again led to a downward spiral. Taking 2015 as an example, due to the impact of falling oil prices and sluggish downstream demand, the average operating rate of the domestic PTA industry was only 67.17%, and the average product price fell by 28% year-on-year. Therefore, the future market situation of polyester raw materials is not optimistic.
Crude oil collapsed again, the trade situation was tense, and the terminal market also experienced a cliff-like cooling, which intensified the bearish sentiment and caused the market atmosphere to suddenly cool down. Terminal demand continued to be weak, and downstream replenishment enthusiasm was extremely low. The transaction volume of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was light yesterday, and the average production and sales were estimated to be around 30% to 40% by around 3 pm. The main contradiction facing the current market is not the price, but the lack of confidence. There are not many orders and it is difficult to increase demand.
The plummeting price of crude oil has not only led to the decline in the prices of raw material products such as PTA and ethylene glycol, but also the price of polyester fiber products has gradually collapsed due to the collapse of costs. For example, the price of POY150D has reached below 7,000, and the decline has already Up to 20%. At present, polyester factory inventories continue to rise and accumulate, and downstream demand is sluggish and insufficient. If the cost line of defense is also lost, polyester and polyester products may continue to find new lows.support point. </p
