For the financial community and those who care about the economy, the night of March 9 is destined to be a sleepless night. The epic plunge in international oil prices and the U.S. stock market has left people stunned, and the global economy is on the verge of a financial crisis. At night, the super moon rose in the sky, but the editor’s circle of friends had no intention of admiring the moon.
The COVID-19 epidemic has exceeded the world’s imagination and is currently accelerating its spread outside China. However, misfortunes never come singly. Before the stock market crashed yesterday, the oil war suddenly started, and oil prices collapsed first. After seeing a price comparison chart of water, oil, beverages, etc. posted online, the author suddenly realized that the oil price of US$30/barrel is already lower than the price of water!
After experiencing “Black Monday”, the opening of the domestic futures market this morning was not too bad. Cotton spinning companies have started production one after another, supporting domestic cotton prices to a certain extent. However, there are currently several Optimistic realities that may last for some time are before us. First, textile companies generally lack new orders, the sales progress of spring clothing is hindered, and there are many companies with product backlogs. Although domestic enterprises have started operations one after another, orders for downstream gray cloth clothing have dropped sharply, which has also weakened consumer demand for cotton raw materials; secondly, the mystery of textile and clothing export data in recent months, and the customs’ suspension of updates has inevitably triggered pessimistic speculation in the market; thirdly, although cotton is currently Most of the market trends have jumped out of the fundamentals, but whether cotton farmers can sow as scheduled still needs attention. Under the epidemic, it is difficult to say whether Zheng Mian has hit the bottom.
Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the state has provided assistance in terms of policies, including tax exemptions and fee reductions for enterprises, and the continued increase in Xinjiang cotton imports to Japan to 15,000 tons. However, the cotton market is still shrouded in the epidemic, and the current performance Still not good. In addition, the price of PTA fell sharply due to the “black swan incident”, which undoubtedly dragged down the price of cotton.
There are no eggs left in the nest, and cotton may not be able to survive alone. The negative impact on global financial markets will continue to exist. However, we don’t need to panic too much. Oil prices that fall below the cost line and are cheaper than water will not always be so lower than their own value. Over time, they will eventually return to the basics. As domestic textile companies resume work and production, they will gradually return to normal. According to the current situation, cotton consumption will increase slowly, and it is believed that the country will introduce more supportive policies. The more bearish the market is, the more you need to think calmly. It is better to take a longer view, just like the moon last night will slowly set, and the sun will eventually rise slowly tomorrow. </p
