Introduction: The 2008 financial crisis caused a sharp decline in chemical products. Now the new coronavirus epidemic and the collapse of the crude oil production reduction plan have once again triggered market panic. The PX market cannot escape doom, and the price is about to hit the lowest point in 2008.
The two-day OPEC+ meeting ended without reaching any agreement to reduce production. New York crude oil futures saw a shocking scene just after the opening of the night. The opening price was only US$32.43/barrel, a drop of 21.99%, a record A four-year low since February 2016. Crude oil is not only the leader of international commodities, but also one of the barometers of the world economy. Behind the decline in crude oil is the concern about the decline in global economic demand due to the epidemic. This year’s epidemic is like a trigger, sounding the alarm on the global economy. The price of crude oil has plummeted in an eye-catching manner. It is like a pot. Like cold water, it awakens our understanding of the current economic situation.
PX, as a product that is closely related to crude oil, cannot escape misfortune. The main raw material of PX is naphtha. The naphtha market trend closely follows crude oil. Affected by the plunge of crude oil, the CFR on the 9th Japanese naphtha closed down $97.78/ton to $310.975/ton, and Asian PX closed down $100/ton to $583/ton CFR Taiwan/China, a single-day drop of 14.46%, the largest single-day drop in history. PX prices fell back to the price during the 2008 financial crisis.
As can be seen from the trend chart, the current PX price is at a low level in more than ten years, with the lowest point being November 6, 2008 At US$571/ton CFR Taiwan/China, the current PX price is only US$12/ton away from the lowest in history. PX is mainly suppressed by the weak general environment. Due to the double blow of the pneumonia epidemic and poor performance of crude oil, the cost side and demand side restrict the market.
However, the editor believes that there is no need to be overly bearish on the market outlook. The epic drop in crude oil has basically made a one-time correction. Similarly, PX fundamentals have gradually stabilized. Due to the long-term losses of PX companies since the second half of last year, the operating rate of PX Maintaining an above-average level, Hainan Refinery’s 1 million tons/year PX unit is currently delayed in restarting due to profit issues, Fuhai Chuang’s 1.6 million tons/year PX unit has no clear restart time, and downstream PTA companies are basically between breakeven and small losses. , the demand for PX remains normal, the domestic epidemic situation is improving rapidly, and terminal polyester factories will gradually return to pre-Spring Festival operating levels. On the whole, PX’s continued downward space is very limited, and it may consolidate at a low level and wait for opportunities. </p
