On March 3, at the 2020 Petroleum and Chemical Industry Economic Operation Online Press Conference, Fu Xiangsheng, Vice President of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation (hereinafter referred to as the “Petrochemical Federation”) stated that the preparation will be completed within the year “Petroleum and Chemical Industry “14th Five-Year Plan” Development Plan” and a number of special plans such as technological innovation, green development, new petrochemical materials, modern coal chemical industry, new chemical industry parks, etc., to establish the goals of the petrochemical industry during the “14th Five-Year Plan”, tasks and measures.
It is reported that the federation has been divided into five A team visited 64 petrochemical parks and nearly 200 companies in 25 provinces and cities to conduct research. The preliminary arrangement is to form a first draft by the end of June.
The “2019 China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Economic Operation Report” released that day showed that in 2019, my country’s petroleum and chemical industry achieved operating income of 12.27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, a new low in four years ; Total profits were 668.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.9%, which was unprecedented in the past four years. Among them, the profits of the oil refining industry fell by 42.1%, the largest decline in the past five years; the profits of the chemical industry fell by 13.9%, the largest decline in the past decade; The total export volume was US$722.21 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, the first negative growth in the past three years.
Affected by the epidemic, new problems have arisen in the production and sales of various chemical products. On the one hand, large upstream enterprises continue to produce, but downstream sales and logistics are blocked, the production load of enterprises decreases, and normal production is affected; on the other hand, various isolation measures have caused a cliff-like decline in market consumption, and a large number of terminal enterprises have suspended production or delayed the start of construction.
The “Report” predicts that overall, the production and sales of key products such as refined oil and chemical products will see a significant decline in the first quarter. However, after the epidemic, downstream consumption will rebound significantly. It is expected that the market will usher in new prosperity after the second quarter, and rising prices will increase industry profits. Based on the comprehensive analysis and judgment of macroeconomic operation trends, industry production, price trends, structural adjustment changes and other factors, the economic operation of the domestic petroleum and chemical industry in 2020 will show a trend of stabilization and recovery. It is expected that the operating income of the entire industry will increase by approximately 5% year-on-year, of which the operating income of the chemical industry will increase by approximately 7%; the total annual profit of the petroleum and chemical industry will increase by approximately 8% year-on-year.
However, it is worth noting that serious overcapacity has become a prominent problem in the development of the petroleum and chemical industries. Fu Xiangsheng pointed out that we are not only worried about the surplus of bulk basic products such as nitrogen fertilizers, soda ash, caustic soda, calcium carbide, tires, etc. “The most worrying thing is chemicals such as oil refining, aromatics, polyester, and even olefins, silicones, polycarbonates and other chemicals that were in short supply in the past. Overcapacity”.
In 2019, China’s oil refining capacity has exceeded 850 million tons per year, and the capacity utilization rate is approximately 76%. Typically, the operating rate of industrial units is between 80% and 85%. This shows that the current domestic refining and chemical production capacity utilization level is low.
The issue of overcapacity has attracted some attention. Starting from 2020, except for the national key bases and key projects planned and deployed by the State Council’s petrochemical industry planning plan, new and expanded refining projects as well as new PX and ethylene projects will be strictly controlled and no approval will be allowed in violation of regulations.
In fact, as early as November 25-27, 2019, the Petroleum and Chemical Industry Planning Institute held a solicitation meeting for the “Research Report on the “14th Five-Year Plan” for the Petrochemical Industry in Beijing. Let’s look back together↓
The research report predicts industry-related expected goals during the “14th Five-Year Plan”:
It is expected that 2019 ~2025, the petrochemical and chemical industry’s main business revenue will grow at an average annual rate of 5% to 5.5%, reaching 150,000 to 16 trillion yuan by 2025.
In terms of major industry scale, it is estimated that the annual production capacity of major products by 2025 will be:
Oil refining 930 million tons, ethylene 50 million tons tons, 43 million tons of PX, 66 million tons of synthetic ammonia, 20 million tons of phosphate fertilizer (pure), 27 million tons of PVC, 9.5 million to 10.5 million tons of coal-to-olefins, 10 million tons of coal-to-ethylene glycol, and various new chemical materials of about 45 million tons.
The research report puts forward the key tasks of the industry during the “14th Five-Year Plan”:
First, cut overcapacity, make up for shortcomings, and improve supply Quality;
The second is to adjust the structure, promote upgrading, and improve the quality of products and enterprises;
The third is to cultivate new momentum and enhance the industry Development potential;
The fourth is safety and green promotion of sustainable development of the industry;
The fifth is the “One Belt, One Road” initiative to promote the open development of the industry.
Focusing on key tasks, the research report further proposes to steadily promote the diversified development of petrochemical raw materials, enhance the ability to guarantee coal-based clean energy, promote new chemical materials to make up for shortcomings, and promote traditional chemical technology Key projects include route upgrading and product structure optimization, promoting optimization and integration to improve the quality of chemical enterprises, optimizing park layout to improve park quality, strengthening technological innovation and developing high and new technologies, and strict safety management of hazardous chemicals.
Previously, Vice Chairman Fu Xiangsheng summarized the performance of my country’s petrochemical industry during the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period in his speech at the “2019 Foreign Investment Committee Annual Meeting”. He pointed out that “the ten Since the “Third Five-Year Plan”, both the total revenue and total profits of the petrochemical industry, as well as the production and consumption of major petrochemical products, have maintained overall stability:
The main operating income of the entire industry remains stable:
In 2016, the main operating income was 13.28 trillion yuan.13.78 trillion yuan in 7 years, 12.4 trillion yuan in 2018, and is expected to be higher than 12 trillion yuan this year. In terms of sectors, the oil and gas sector has grown year by year, with 785.5 billion yuan in 2016, 920.1 billion yuan in 2017, and 1,014 billion yuan in 2018; the refining sector has grown year by year, with 2.88 trillion yuan in 2016, 3.42 trillion yuan in 2017, and 38,800 yuan in 2018. billion; the chemical sector has been decreasing year by year, with 9.2 trillion yuan in 2016, 9.1 trillion yuan in 2017, and 7.3 trillion yuan in 2018. It can be seen that the challenges encountered by the chemical sector are more severe.
Industry benefits remain stable
The total profit was 644.4 billion yuan in 2016 and 846.2 billion yuan in 2017 yuan, 839.4 billion yuan in 2018, and is expected to be higher than 700 billion yuan this year. In terms of sectors, the oil and gas sector fluctuated greatly, with -54.36 billion yuan in 2016, 32.97 billion yuan in 2017, and 159.8 billion yuan in 2018; the refining sector was relatively stable, with 170.36 billion yuan in 2016, 191.15 billion yuan in 2017, and 170.2 billion yuan in 2018. ; The chemical sector is basically stable, with revenue of 507.3 billion yuan in 2016, 605.07 billion yuan in 2017, and 500.65 billion yuan in 2018. It can be seen that the impact of oil prices on the benefits of the oil and gas sector is directly related.
The output of main products has grown steadily
Ethylene output was 17.81 million tons in 2016 and 18.218 million tons in 2017 tons, 18.41 million tons in 2018; propylene production was 25.42 million tons in 2016, 28 million tons in 2017, and 30.05 million tons in 2018; polyethylene production was 14.355 million tons in 2016, 14.72 million tons in 2017, and 14.02 million tons in 2018; Propylene production was 18.497 million tons in 2016, 19.005 million tons in 2017, and 20.419 million tons in 2018; PVC production was 16.69 million tons in 2016, 17.9 million tons in 2017, and 18.739 million tons in 2018; PX production was 9.46 million tons in 2016, 9.71 million tons in 2017 and 11.25 million tons in 2018; PC production was 630,000 tons in 2016, 790,000 tons in 2017, and 970,000 tons in 2018.
The industrial structure is further optimized
The industrial layout and concentration of the oil refining industry and product structure optimization process:
In 2016, 58.08 million tons of backward production capacity were eliminated. At the end of the year, the primary crude oil processing capacity was 804 million tons, the crude oil processed was 541 million tons, and the average capacity utilization rate was 67.2 %;
In 2017, another 23.55 million tons of backward production capacity were eliminated, and with the addition of two new production units in Huizhou and Yunnan, the primary crude oil processing capacity at the end of the year was basically the same as that of the previous year, and the amount of crude oil processed 568 million tons, with an average capacity utilization rate of 71%;
In 2018, 11.65 million tons of backward production capacity will be eliminated. At the end of the year, the primary crude oil processing capacity will be 813 million tons, and the crude oil processed volume will be 604 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate is 74.2%.
The growth rate of refined oil production in the refining industry has slowed down significantly, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.6% in 2018. In view of the continuous shrinking of the diesel consumer market, the diesel-to-gasoline ratio of refined oil products has also declined year by year. , the diesel-to-gasoline consumption ratio in the first nine months of this year is about 1.14;
From 2016 to 2018, organic chemicals such as olefins, aromatics and polyolefins (polyethylene grew at a rate of 2.6% to 4.9 % or above, the growth rate of polypropylene (growth rate 5%~9.7%) and its special materials (synthetic resin growth rate 4.2%~6.6%) has accelerated significantly;
The most obvious It is an engineering plastic polycarbonate, with a growth rate of 22.8%~26.0%; PX also has a growth rate of 2.6%~15.8%.
The level of green development continues to improve
The entire petrochemical industry places green development on the health and safety of the petrochemical industry In the prominent position of sustainable development, we will continue to increase the construction of new industrialization demonstration bases, continue to increase recycling transformation and comprehensive utilization of resources, and continue to use new green processes and new energy-saving and emission reduction technologies to carry out technological transformation and transformation and upgrading. The material consumption of the entire industry , energy consumption, water consumption and waste emissions have continued to decline, and the level of green development in the entire industry has continued to improve.
Since 2017, the Petrochemical Federation has evaluated a total of 125 green factories, 258 green products, 9 green petrochemical parks, 6 green petrochemical park establishment units, and 30 green processes. .
The industry-wide standard coal consumption per 10,000 yuan of income from 2016 to 2018 was 0.47 tons, 0.53 tons, 0.47 tons respectively, and 0.52 tons in the first nine months of this year. </p
