Since February 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic has affected the resumption of work in the viscose staple fiber industry, and also affected the normal operations of related companies and markets. The epidemic has not yet completely ended, and the global epidemic continues to ferment, so this comment The impact of the epidemic on the viscose staple fiber market is too early. However, we can find out the impact of epidemics on the viscose staple fiber industry from historical epidemics and predict the industry trend.
Five epidemics in the past 20 years
In 2019, the price of the viscose staple fiber industry was in a downward cycle, with four consecutive declines during the year, and the low support points hit new lows repeatedly. Until December 23, 2019, the industry averaged The price dropped to 9,400 yuan/ton, setting a new low in the viscose staple fiber market after 2000. This price resulted in an average loss of 1,500-2,000 yuan per ton in the industry. Most viscose staple fiber factories have reduced or restricted production to varying degrees. Originally, these viscose staple fiber factories that had limited production were preparing to resume normal production after the Spring Festival in 2020. However, due to a sudden epidemic, the production plans of most companies in the industry were disrupted.
The main characteristics of this new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic are: 1) The epidemic has broken out, but most people are not aware of it; 2) The scale of the epidemic has expanded, and most people have protection, the government intervenes in control and treatment; 3) the epidemic is stable and gradually controllable; 4) the epidemic disappears and social order returns to normal; 5) the epidemic is declared a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) by the World Health Organization (WHO).
The author sorted out five PHEICs announced by WHO since 2009, namely: 1) the H1N1 influenza outbreak in 2009; 2) the spinal cord outbreak in 2014 Polio epidemic; 3) Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014; 4) “Zika” epidemic in 2015-2016; 5) Ebola epidemic in Congo (DRC) in 2018 (in July 2019 Announce).
Among these five major epidemics: SARS in 2003 was the first large-scale epidemic encountered by China after 2000. Its development process has great impact on this epidemic. The epidemic has a certain reference effect. Three major epidemics, including influenza A (H1N1), Brazilian Zika virus infection, and the Ebola virus epidemic (affecting the United States), were selected as research subjects, mainly because these three major epidemics have a certain impact on the Americas and Southeast Asia, and the Americas and Southeast Asia are our country’s An important source area of dissolving pulp and an important consumption area of viscose staple fiber and finished products. This article mainly reviews these five major epidemics and the viscose staple fiber market trends during the epidemic, with a view to allowing viscose staple fiber practitioners to find appropriate decision-making solutions during the development of the epidemic.
1. Review of the SARS epidemic and viscose staple fiber price trends during the period
1.1 SARS Epidemic Review
SARS is an infectious disease that has an acute onset, rapid spread, and high mortality rate. Most of the infected patients have direct or indirect contact with the patient. or live in an endemic area. The SARS outbreak occurred from November 16, 2002 to September 2, 2003, with the peak period from November 16, 2002 to July 16, 2003. According to statistics from relevant departments, the epidemic is estimated to have caused US$40 billion in losses to the global economy in 2003.
In order to facilitate the study of the impact of the epidemic on the viscose staple fiber market, we divided the 2003 SARS outbreak into five stages, namely the initial stage, the diffusion stage, and the outbreak. stage, stabilization stage and closing stage.
1) Starting stage: November 16, 2002 – March 11, 2003
November 15, 2002 , the first case of SARS appeared in Heyuan City, Guangdong Province. As of February 9, 2003, a total of 305 cases of SARS had been found in Guangdong Province. Then, SARS quickly spread to the rest of the country. On March 6, 2003, Beijing received its first imported case of SARS.
2) Diffusion stage: March 12, 2003 – April 14, 2003
On March 12, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a global warning, followed by a health warning from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; on March 15, the World Health Organization officially named the disease It’s SARS (severe respiratory syndrome). On March 27, Hong Kong announced a ban on visiting SARS patients and the closure of primary and secondary schools; on April 3, the Ministry of Health held a press conference announcing that there were only 12 cases in Beijing; on April 14, the number of suspected cases reached 1,418. Since then, reports of SARS have appeared in many parts of the world, spreading from Southeast Asia to Australia, Europe and North America. Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, the United States, Canada and other countries have successively reported multiple cases of SARS.
3) Outbreak stage: April 15, 2003 – May 9, 2003
On April 15, WHO listed Guangdong, Shanxi, Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, Toronto, Canada, Singapore, Hanoi, Vietnam and other places as epidemic areas; on April 17, the central government began to respond with all-out efforts and took multiple measures. emergency measures; on April 20, the central government held a press conference and announced that the number of cases in Beijing had increased significantly from the original 37 cases that had been concealed to 339; on April 23, the Beijing governmentLooking at the time period, it is mostly from November of that year to September of the following year. During this period, according to the country and region where the epidemic broke out, the local government carried out different levels of treatment and control work according to different epidemic levels. Due to the epidemic control, delivery delays or the inability to ship goods caused by inconvenient transportation will cause a short period of tight supply in the viscose staple fiber market. This has been verified in the three major epidemics of SARS, H1N1 and Brazilian Zika virus. Judging from the viscose staple fiber market price increases at the beginning and end of the three major epidemic periods, they were all above 25%.
2) If the epidemic outbreak area is not the main area of viscose staple fiber production or use, then viscose staple fiber The market operation has little impact. This can be seen mainly from the market price movement of viscose staple fiber during the Ebola virus epidemic in West Africa. It did not generate a large demand for viscose staple fiber due to the outbreak, nor did it trigger the market price of viscose staple fiber. large fluctuations. Although the fifth round of H7N9 avian influenza occurred in China, there were not many fluctuations in the viscose staple fiber market during this period. This also shows that if the epidemic occurred not in the main viscose staple fiber production area, or the epidemic did not trigger government departments With first-level response and related control, the epidemic will have less impact on the operation of the viscose staple fiber market.
3) To explore the impact of the epidemic on the operation of the viscose staple fiber market, it is necessary to combine the basic principles of the viscose staple fiber industry chain The analysis cannot be metaphysical. It needs to first analyze the fundamentals of the industry and then add the impact of some factors caused by the epidemic on the viscose staple fiber industry.
Written at the end
In the history of human development, major epidemics It is one of the common disasters encountered along with the development of human society. Every occurrence of a major epidemic will have a profound impact on the development history of human society. It will change some people’s daily habits and also change the development path of some industries.
Although this article analyzes the impact of the five major epidemics after 2000 on the viscose staple fiber market, and extracts some common elements. On the surface, there are certain regularities, but Since the development of the epidemic does not depend on human will, and the socio-economic background of each epidemic is different, the key points summarized above cannot be mechanically used to analyze the current COVID-19 epidemic.
During the development of the epidemic, the author recommends that viscose staple fiber production companies, while carrying out normal and safe production, take good care of their office areas, production areas, public areas and employees. Epidemic prevention work; at the same time, operators need to track whether the supply of raw materials required for production is normal; whether the logistics of finished products to customers is normal. If we can do these daily tasks under the epidemic situation, then the entire viscose staple fiber industry’s employees will receive a systematic improvement in psychology, physiology and behavior. With this spirit of overcoming the epidemic and maintaining normal and safe production, the author firmly believes that after this round of epidemic passes, the viscose staple fiber market will show healthy operation and get rid of the industry’s nearly full-year loss in 2019. </p