Recently, the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association released a briefing on the operation of China’s chemical fiber industry in 2019 and its forecast for 2020. The report pointed out that in 2019, the domestic and international economic situation remained complex and severe, the global economic growth slowed down, and the domestic and foreign risks and challenges faced by the development of the chemical fiber industry increased significantly.
The industry is operating stably but under pressure. Affected by various factors such as the crude oil market and international trade disputes, the prosperity of the chemical fiber industry has declined, but the resilience of industry development has increased. In 2020, there will still be many uncertain and unstable factors, and the external environment will remain severe. Chemical fiber companies must gain insight into some of the forces that may cause change, which will both profoundly change the present and drive future development.
The economic performance of the chemical fiber industry in 2019
The demand side continues to weaken, and the pressure of the contradiction between supply and demand in the industry has increased. According to statistics from the China Chemical Fiber Industry, China’s chemical fiber output in 2019 was 58.27 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, of which viscose fiber increased by 2.8% year-on-year, polyester increased by 8.3% year-on-year, and nylon increased by 5.9% year-on-year. Compared with 2015, chemical fiber output increased at an average annual rate of 4.8% during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period, which was slightly higher than the estimated value of the “13th Five-Year Plan”, but basically within a reasonable range.
The layout of the global textile industry has been adjusted, and my country’s exports of chemical fiber products have continued to increase. According to China Customs statistics, my country’s chemical fiber export volume in 2019 was 5.06 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, and the growth rate was 8.3 percentage points higher than in 2018. Affected by the Sino-US trade war, the structure of my country’s chemical fiber export market has been adjusted. In 2019, chemical fiber exports to the United States decreased by 39.0% year-on-year, and the proportion of my country’s total chemical fiber exports dropped by 4.0 percentage points. During the same period, exports to ASEAN and the “One Belt, One Road” The export volume of major countries along the route has increased significantly, reflecting the adjustment of the global textile industry layout.
In general, because my country’s chemical fiber export market is relatively fragmented, and the United States’ share is less than 5%, so although the Sino-US trade war has led to a sharp decline in my country’s chemical fiber exports to the United States, it can basically be replaced by seeking other alternatives. The market will compensate. However, the Sino-US trade war has a greater impact on certain products with the United States as the main export market, such as polyester staple fiber. In 2019, my country’s exports of polyester staple fiber to the United States dropped significantly by 35.1% year-on-year.
The chemical fiber market is under pressure and has fallen to historical lows. After experiencing in-depth adjustments in the fourth quarter of 2018, the chemical fiber market gradually stabilized in the first quarter of 2019, and the prices of some products even increased. However, after April, affected by multiple factors such as crude oil and the Sino-US trade war, the prosperity of the chemical fiber industry declined. decline, the chemical fiber market mainly fluctuated downwards. Although there was a small rebound during this period, it was difficult to reverse the downward trend. The market prices of major products hit new lows in the past three years. The main reasons for the continued market decline are the sharp drop in raw material costs, the decline in terminal demand growth, and the periodic excess production capacity in some links.
The scale of fixed asset investment has shrunk, and the growth rate of new production capacity has slowed. Due to the decline in industry prosperity in 2019, corporate investment has also tended to be cautious. Based on the rapid growth of fixed asset investment in the previous two years, the investment scale has declined rapidly, and the investment scale has been reduced, and the production capacity of some projects has been delayed. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, fixed asset investment in the chemical fiber industry decreased by 14.1% year-on-year in 2019. There is an obvious tendency for new production capacity in the chemical fiber industry to be concentrated in advantageous enterprises. In particular, the pace of endogenous growth and mergers and reorganizations of key enterprises in the polyester and polyester industry has accelerated, and industry concentration has further increased.
Operation quality and efficiency have fluctuated, and the industry is facing arduous tests. As the prosperity of the chemical fiber industry declines, market prices continue to decrease, and the price difference between products and raw materials gradually narrows, resulting in a significant contraction in industry profits.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the chemical fiber industry achieved main business income of 857.12 billion yuan in 2019, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%; a total profit of 31.10 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.8%; the industry’s loss rate was 22.1%. It expanded by 3.9 percentage points compared with 2018, and the losses of loss-making enterprises also increased significantly by 73.2% year-on-year; the operating income profit margin was 3.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1 percentage points. When the industry is in difficulty, it forces companies to improve their operating capabilities to ensure cash flow and reduce risks. The turnover rate of accounts receivable and finished goods turnover rate have accelerated year-on-year. At the same time, the ratio of three fees has decreased by 0.18 percentage points year-on-year.
In general, under the complex situation of significantly increasing domestic and foreign risk challenges, the downward pressure on China’s chemical fiber industry has increased since 2019, but there are also bright spots in the operation of the industry: the three major private refining and chemical companies Projects have been put into production one after another, and the “integration” process of the industrial chain has accelerated; the first 5G smart workshop was born, and the industry is one step closer to intelligent development; the CV Alliance has gained international recognition, and the green development of the industry has been fruitful; leading companies and companies in differentiated subdivisions Still maintain strong competitiveness. These have enhanced the resilience of the industry’s development, improved its ability to resist risks, and further promoted the high-quality development of China’s chemical fiber industry.
Prediction of the trend of the chemical fiber industry in 2020
2020 is the final year of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way and the “13th Five-Year Plan”. At the beginning of the new year, we have experienced With the outbreak of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, we have witnessed the plunge of crude oil and the second circuit breaker that has not been seen in the US stock market for decades. An unusual start indicates that the situation facing my country’s textile and chemical fiber industry will become more complex and severe, and the development prospects will become more uncertain. .
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated on March 5 that it will lower its global economic growth forecast for 2020 due to the impact of the epidemic. The global economic growth rate in 2020 is expected to be lower than the 2.9% in 2019, but now StillHow low can be expected and how long-lasting the impact will be. China’s economic growth will inevitably be affected in 2020, but the long-term fundamentals of China’s economy have not changed. China’s industrial economy is still making progress. The COVID-19 epidemic has caused us tremendous pain. But it also freed up a new space for China’s further reform and opening up. By strengthening confidence, insisting on deepening reforms, and tapping the potential of the domestic demand market, China’s economic growth is still promising.
Looking forward to 2020, it will be a difficult winter for the chemical fiber industry. The epidemic crisis has combined with the plunge of crude oil, the risk of global economic turmoil has increased, and the pressure on the operation and development of the chemical fiber industry has increased. However, at the same time, positive factors still exist, and the industry The resilience to resist downward risks is increasing day by day, and there is no room for further long-term sustained decline. In response to the impact of the epidemic, the state has begun to introduce various support policies to help companies gradually ease operating pressure.
Based on a comprehensive analysis and judgment of macroeconomic trends, industry production, price trends, structural adjustment changes, and the COVID-19 epidemic, the chemical fiber industry is expected to gradually recover from the impact of the epidemic in the second half of the year, and will show positive trends throughout the year. Low and then high, stabilizing and recovering. It is initially estimated that the annual chemical fiber output will increase by about 3% year-on-year, and the total profit will be the same as the previous year or increase slightly. Imports were the same as or slightly lower than the previous year, and exports increased by about 5%.
To develop after the epidemic, the chemical fiber industry should think carefully about what to do in the future and prepare for a rainy day. The epidemic will give rise to new business formats and benefiting industries. The chemical fiber industry must carefully study and judge, discover opportunities, study how to make good use of the tools of the new business format, and adjust business structures and processes in a timely manner to better adapt to the new business format and new economy after the epidemic. We need to gain insight into some of the forces that may cause change, which will both profoundly change the present and drive future development.
The stable development of the chemical fiber industry is still a major trend. We must focus on the long-term development of the industry, enhance the overall competitiveness of the industry, seize new opportunities such as industrial optimization and upgrading, enhance technological innovation capabilities, and accelerate green development, and strive to resolve risks. , strengthen industry self-discipline, avoid unhealthy competition, concentrate on doing our own things well, do a good job in the domestic market, and turn external pressure into a powerful driving force to accelerate the deepening of reform and opening up and promote high-quality development of the industry. </p
