The epidemic has been suspended, and the factories of textile bosses have gradually returned to normal production. I believe that this epidemic has been a heavy blow to many companies. They have just faced a suspension of work and production, and they have also suffered from the resumption of work and isolation of epidemic prevention materials. The preparations, no matter which item it is, are a lot of expenditures. Before any money is made, the expenditures are quite a lot.
According to statistics from industry authoritative departments, the impact of the new coronavirus infection epidemic on textile and garment enterprises Larger, let’s take a look at the specific analysis.
(Photo: China Service Network)
The impact of the epidemic on the development trend of the industry
During the SARS period, the cyclical impact of the clothing industry and the development of the epidemic were basically synchronized: SARS was in March and April It is most severe in the first half of May, and the impact is particularly severe in early May. It begins to weaken in June and gradually recovers in July. According to the analysis of Zhang Wenhong, leader of the Shanghai Medical Treatment Expert Group, the new coronavirus epidemic: With a high probability, except for a few areas in Wuhan, the epidemic will end in two to three months. The country is confident and capable of winning the battle against the epidemic! In In this case, the impact on the garment industry will be the most serious from February to March, and it will gradually recover in April, and it is optimistically expected to return to normal in May to June.
The impact of the epidemic on domestic clothing consumption demand
The clothing industry is Necessities for daily life, but under the epidemic, according to Maslow’s hierarchy of needs theory, short-term consumer preferences for the clothing industry are changing. At present, consumers’ demand for clothing is at the top of the list. Safety needs are at the top of the list. Moreover, many people work from home and rarely go out for shopping. In the short term, the basic demand for clothing to keep warm and cover the body is relatively high. They also have high requirements for aesthetics, showing off, scenes, etc. Psychological demand is weakening, and the epidemic is bound to affect consumers’ income, so consumption expectations will naturally decline.
After the epidemic is over, consumption will generally rebound with retaliation. According to optimistic analysis, clothing consumption will also rise in stages. After all, after the epidemic, disasters will affect people’s consumption outlook to a certain extent, and their pursuit of health, aesthetics and quality of life will increase.
Analysis of the epidemic’s impact on the clothing industry’s cycle consumption
① Destocking in winter Missing the peak consumption season
According to the clothing industry consumption cycle, the Spring Festival is a key node for winter clothing inventory consumption, and inventory is profit and cash flow. The epidemic caused the apparel industry to miss the peak consumption season in spring, which will incur time costs and opportunity costs and reduce cash turnover rates. Conservative estimates show that in distribution channels, winter inventory in 2019 will increase by more than 10% compared to 2018. We need to know that the net profit of the clothing industry is only about 10%.
② It is difficult to grasp the golden cycle for spring clothing sales
According to the rules of clothing sales, spring clothing is generally sold before the year It will be put on the shelves, generally from January to March in the south and from February to April in the north. For e-commerce, most of them have been put on the shelves before the year. In other words, spring clothes are in stock in the early stage of the epidemic. Nowadays, due to the impact of the epidemic, from February to March, before the epidemic is lifted, even if physical stores open, not many customers will visit them. Even if the epidemic is lifted, consumers’ panic will continue for a while, which is also a big enemy for spring clothing, which only has a one-month prime consumption period. For e-commerce companies, before the epidemic is over, they are in the same boat as offline stores. After the epidemic is over, some offline stores will be transferred to online stores. Life will be easier, but it will be difficult to grasp this golden cycle. Therefore, spring inventory also increases, and we can only rely on selling spring inventory in the autumn after the epidemic.
③ The response online and offline during the summer clothing consumption peak season is different
The core sales time in summer is 4 By June, July and August were mainly consumption of inventory. According to the epidemic cycle prediction, the summer sales of offline physical stores due to the epidemic will be weak in the first half and will be better in the second half. However, due to the economic downturn and periodic decline in consumer demand, it is difficult for physical stores to have strong summer sales.
The summer sales season is more favorable for e-commerce channels. Originally, the epidemic would have affected customers to shift to online purchases, and there would be a short-term retaliatory rebound in consumption after the epidemic. , which is a good period for e-commerce.
During the epidemic, physical space is isolated, and cyberspace is also connected. More than 40 million people watched the construction of Huoshenshan Hospital through live broadcast, which means that the epidemic is a catalyst, accelerating Attention and use of webcasting. After the epidemic, consumers’ consumption behavior will be further changed and cultivated. Therefore, consumption in the clothing industry can only slowly recover in traditional offline channels and is difficult to explode. The clothing industry through e-commerce channels is good news, especially It is the transformation of e-commerce and live streaming that is gradually cultivating consumption habits. The clothing industry will usher in an explosion in the second half of summer. We also believe that this will inspire everyone to yearn for a better life!</p
