According to statistics, the correlation between crude oil prices and PTA’s internal market is as high as 81.62%. Affected by the sharp drop in crude oil, PTA futures have continued to fall recently and fell to the limit again on the 18th. In 2020, PTA has entered the production cycle, its fundamentals have deteriorated, and the weak future price of PTA is difficult to change.
Hit a record low
PTA futures entered a technical bear market after the Spring Festival. On February 3, affected by the spread of the new coronavirus epidemic, the main PTA futures contract opened at the lower limit. Subsequently, as the price of raw material PX rose steadily, the PTA futures price stabilized at 4,400 yuan/ton. However, as the overseas epidemic continues to ferment, the cost side is under pressure, coupled with the slow resumption of downstream work, the price of PTA has fallen again against the background of high inventory. Since March, international crude oil prices have plummeted, and domestic chemicals have followed closely. On March 19, the main PTA futures contract fell to the limit again, hitting a record low of 3,452 yuan/ton.
Under the impact of the epidemic, asymmetric work stoppages and logistics disruptions have caused an imbalance in supply and demand in the PTA market. In the context of the crude oil price war, downward pressure on PX has increased, and PTA prices have changed with upstream costs.
The supply and demand side is weak
In 2020, domestic PTA plans to put into production 18.7 million tons, and polyester production capacity will increase by 5.7 million tons, which can only absorb PTA production 4.8735 million tons. In March, the PTA supply and demand side improved, and the accumulation range narrowed. However, PTA social inventory is still at a high level of more than 3 million tons, and the supply and demand side is still weak.
In terms of supply, PTA equipment maintenance increased in mid-March. Pengwei 900,000 tons, Fuhua 4.5 million tons, BP 1.25 million tons were planned maintenance, Hengli 2.2 million tons, Xinfengming 2.2 million tons temporary Parking, the operating rate of domestic PTA equipment has recently dropped to the lowest post-holiday level of 69.7%. On the demand side, polyester load rose to 81%, the highest post-holiday level. With the resumption of production of PTA maintenance equipment in late March and the deceleration of polyester load increase, PTA inventory in March will plummet from 1.1 million tons in February to 200,000 tons. In addition, with the spread of the overseas epidemic, some planned export orders from terminal weaving companies have been cancelled. Downstream production and sales are generally light, and there is no large-scale dip hunting in the market. If it is difficult to increase production and sales in the short term, the increase in load will aggravate the accumulation of polyester products.
The picture shows the daily line of PTA2005 contract
In short, the cost has moved downward and the supply and demand sides have been weak. In the background, short-term PTA prices mainly change with crude oil. Because the absolute price of crude oil is at a low level, we should pay attention to market dips. However, the negative effects of accelerated PTA production expansion have not yet been fully priced in, so be cautious when buying dips. In terms of operation, rebound short selling is the main focus. </p
