At present, the foreign epidemic is showing an outbreak trend, with no turning point in sight, and market sentiment has fallen to the bottom. Chicago’s investor panic index VIX has reached 80.85, the highest in the past 10 years. The impact of the epidemic on the U.S. stock market, which leads the global capital market, is self-evident.
An interesting phenomenon is that against the background of the wave of layoffs and salary cuts by global companies and the continuous meltdown of the stock market, the stock of Wal-Mart, one of the three major retail giants in the United States, bucked the trend and rose. Wal-Mart, which was originally under pressure for performance, was pushed off the stage overnight. Why is this? The rush to buy daily necessities and the continued performance growth of retail giants indicate that the severity and urgency of the epidemic in the United States are greater than market expectations. The American people are ready for a long-term war against the epidemic, so it will be difficult for the capital market and U.S. cotton to get ahead. In Japan, the tax cuts agreed between China and the United States last year had an extremely weak effect on boosting the market. Market procurement expectations for US cotton have also evaporated under the influence of the epidemic, and recovery remains to be seen.
Zheng Cotton fell by the limit at the opening yesterday. With the development and spread of the foreign epidemic, the CF2005 contract broke down to a low of 10,570 yuan/ton, and the CF2009 contract broke down to a low of 11,020 yuan/ton. Many companies may not know whether they will continue to explore further. Now 3128B has reached 11,859 yuan/ton, and the main futures basis has returned to the high of 1,200 after the Spring Festival on February 3. This is a good opportunity for futures traders who are optimistic about the later period of the epidemic and need to purchase at a lower price, but it is a disaster for investors who do not stop losses in time or even go long.
At present, the value of commercial cotton has fallen far below the cost range. Based on historical market conditions and bottom support level operations, Zheng Cotton needs to be revalued. Although industrial investors can spot spot prices in batches that have fallen below the historical bottom, the demand from textile companies will not be too strong at this stage, so speculators should strictly control risks, control positions, beware of unexpected crashes, and be patient We will wait for the turning point of the international epidemic and external macroeconomic improvements before making a decision. </p
