PTA continued its weak downward trend last week. The main contract 2005 dropped to as low as 3452 and closed at 3538 last Friday, down 314 yuan/ton from the previous week. The cumulative weekly decline was 8.15%, and the position increased by 26,500 lots to 766,900 lots. In terms of spot prices, mainstream PTA prices fell by a cumulative 315 yuan/ton last week to 3,415 yuan/ton.
International oil prices fell across the board last Friday, with NYMEX crude oil futures falling 26.38% for the week, the highest level since 2008 The largest weekly decline; Brent oil fell 17.18% on the week, falling for four consecutive weeks. The collapse in crude oil prices was caused by a sudden drop in demand due to lockdowns around the world. Crude oil traders expect global crude oil demand to fall further, with crude oil demand expected to fall by 10-20 million barrels per day in March-April.
PTA price hits new low on the market
Judging from the lows of crude oil and PTA prices in 2016, PTA prices have hit a new low since its listing. The crude oil above is still slightly higher than the low in 2016, and PTA is already in an oversold state. Moreover, the added value of industries above designated size nationwide from January to February 2020 has been further confirmed. From January to February, the added value of industries above designated size actually fell by 13.5% year-on-year. In February, the added value of industries above designated size decreased by 26.63% from the previous month. Among them, the textile industry dropped by 27.2%, and the manufacturing industry of chemical raw materials and chemical products dropped by 12.3%. From a data point of view, the decline in the textile industry is nearly twice that of chemical raw materials, which is at a low point in recent years.
PTA production fell into losses, and polyester prices fell rapidly
Up The weekly mainstream PTA price has fallen by 315 yuan/ton to 3415 yuan/ton, while the price of the upstream raw material PX has fallen relatively sharply due to the drop in oil prices. The current dynamic production of PTA is still at a loss, with a loss per ton of 150 yuan/ton, which is at a medium level. .
International oil prices ended lower, dragging down chemical product costs and market sentiment. Some downstream polyester devices have restarted, and the comprehensive load has increased to 82.43%. This year, under the influence of the epidemic, weaving factories began to gradually recover in mid-to-late March, and demand lagged behind by about a month. With the introduction of resumption of work policies and government support policies in various places, polyester production started to show a slow upward trend in March. However, in terms of price, quotations from mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have fallen sharply due to cost drag. As of March 23, the average market price of polyester POY150D/48F was 5,894 yuan/ton, down 14.38% from the beginning of the month. The terminal textile market has a cautious wait-and-see attitude. Many companies said that after the start of production, there was a lack of large orders, the number of orders was significantly reduced, and the willingness to purchase was weak to maintain rigid demand.
External demand has been frustrated and domestic demand has been sluggish
As the new coronavirus epidemic continues to Overseas spread has intensified, and global panic has increased. Currently, many countries have declared a state of emergency and introduced a series of measures such as country closures and city closures. Affected by this, the number of domestic and foreign trade orders has dropped sharply, and manufacturers’ production enthusiasm has been suppressed. The main problems currently faced are the following two points. First, after the terminal source of goods is exported to the destination port, the efficiency of customs clearance and transshipment is greatly reduced, the transportation time is extended, and a lot of additional terminal storage and other costs will be incurred. Secondly, due to the impact of the epidemic, downstream receivers may not pick up the goods or abandon the goods. And in the short term, the export problem will be difficult to solve.
The domestic market demand is sluggish, and it is difficult to see a significant improvement in the short term. At present, the inventory of weaving manufacturers is about 38 days. Although the domestic epidemic has been well controlled, there has been no major improvement in the downstream market so far, and the destocking cycle in the later period is relatively long. Moreover, according to a survey conducted by the China National Garment Association on the resumption of work and production of garment companies, most of the surveyed companies reported that orders have decreased due to factors such as sluggish market demand and order cancellations, and some companies reported that domestic orders have fallen sharply.
PTA load rate dropped sharply
Domestic PTA operating rate last week It fell sharply by 16.89% to around 69.94%, and the overall operating rate dropped to a medium to low level. In view of the poor overall demand at home and abroad, major PTA manufacturers have begun joint maintenance to alleviate market inventory pressure. Pengwei Petrochemical’s PTA unit with an annual output of 900,000 tons was shut down on the night of March 9 and is expected to be inspected for one month. Hengli Petrochemical’s 2.2 million tons PTA unit began maintenance on March 12, and the maintenance is planned to last about 15 days. Dushan Energy’s 2.2 million-ton PTA unit was shut down for maintenance on March 15, and the maintenance is expected to last 15 days. Many units such as Luoyang Petrochemical, Tianjin Petrochemical, Shanghai Petrochemical and Hanbang Petrochemical are still not operating at full capacity. But judging from the feedback from the disk, the effect is minimal. The destocking speed of PTA is slow. From January to February alone, the social inventory of PTA exceeded 1.5 million tons. The overall social inventory reached more than 3 million tons, which is a historical high in the past five years. The contradiction between market supply and demand is still prominent.
Future trend prediction
Cost On the other hand, in response to the recent sharp decline in oil prices, the struggle for oil supply has been long and difficult, and the search for a bottom in oil prices may not be over in the short term; from now on.From a balanced perspective, the global glut may intensify, and crude oil may still be sold in the short term and is expected to maintain a weak downward trend in the near future. It is expected that PTA will be dragged down by the panic of falling oil prices in the short term. However, profits at the cost end and in all links of the industrial chain have been suppressed near the break-even point, and it is expected that there will be room for continued decline. </p
