The scale and scope of this outbreak, the ups and downs of changes, and the breadth of its impact are beyond imagination. The U.S. stock market triggered the circuit breaker mechanism four times, triggering great turmoil in the global financial market. Although the main cause of the stock market turmoil is said by others, we can be sure that the epidemic has become a key factor in the scientific revolution, the fourth industrial revolution, and the industrial wave (Cons cycle). An important ups and downs in the non-equilibrium state caused by factors such as financial crises and financial crises, the biggest black swan, will affect whether the global social and economic structure can move from this chaos to a new pattern, structure and order.
In 2000, Dominique Couvery (France) published a book, facing the recent financial crisis in Southeast Asia, as well as the Internet revolution, virtual economic bubbles, dematerialization of consumption, anti-mainstream fashion, and the lack of dress symbols. , industrial transfer, the loss of manufacturing industries in developed countries and many other impacts, the fashion industry at a crossroads has asked: “Is fashion going to die?” (China Textile Publishing House, 2009 Chinese version)
The current situation is more complicated than 20 years ago. To face troubles and greater challenges, the textile industry must examine the impact of the epidemic from a comprehensive and multi-dimensional perspective and actively respond to long-term planning and precise policies. China is a major textile manufacturing and trading country in the world. The future development and response of China’s textile trade under the epidemic is the first question that must be answered.
The direct impact of the current epidemic on China’s textile and apparel trade
Like the aviation, tourism, catering, entertainment, and film and television industries, the textile and clothing industry has suffered direct and heavy losses. Moreover, as a long industrial chain of globalization and a labor-intensive industry, the textile and clothing industry has been hit hard. The deeper the damage, the more difficult and complex the short-term recovery will be.
The international textile and apparel trade has declined: The epidemic has spread to the world, and the world’s major fashion production and market centers have become epidemic areas. The epidemic has triggered a financial earthquake and the global economic downturn has led to a decline in international textile and apparel trade and export orders. Textile production and trading companies have been in trouble.
The industrial chain is blocked, and there is still time to restart: Textile and clothing is a long industrial chain, and the start-up conditions and timing of upstream and downstream industries are different and mutually constraining, making it difficult for companies to start operations and supply chain coordination. Unanimity is more difficult, which makes the garment industry an industry with a low resumption rate and slow normalization.
Economic systemic constraints: Isolation is an effective measure of last resort when the epidemic breaks out, but the economic shutdown triggers a series of reactions: interruption of production and circulation, abnormal unemployment of workers, loss of income The decline has brought additional pressure to the task of poverty alleviation. Fiscal and financial fluctuations have made it difficult for enterprises to operate capital chains. The above factors are intertwined with each other. Therefore, in order for the industry to recover as soon as possible, in addition to the effective application of enterprises, it also requires the coordination and cooperation of other industries. extraordinary government policy.
Recent countermeasures for the textile and apparel industry: Facing the direct impact and destruction of the epidemic, China’s textile and apparel industry has shown great ability to withstand pressure. At present, we mainly strive for time and energy to complete existing orders, deliver on time as much as possible, reduce losses, maintain customers, give full play to the foundation and advantages of “dualization”, and accelerate the promotion of intelligent manufacturing, industrial Internet, Internet of Things, big data, industrial cloud, etc. Reduce labor and combine online and offline operations to drive demand to reduce reliance on physical logistics, distribution, and retail channels.
Seize the sudden demand of the epidemic to meet the growing demand for functional textiles such as medical protective clothing and masks, expand or convert production capacity, and accelerate the development and marketization of new functional materials and products. , support domestic anti-epidemic strategies and help the global fight against the epidemic. Expand the development of corresponding post-epidemic high-tech professional medical products and civilian markets.
While pressing the pause button, powerful companies are warming up for Industry 4.0 and new retail, stepping up equipment and technology upgrades, and expanding new product development and reserves. In order to seize the rebound of domestic and foreign markets after the epidemic, grasp the changes in consumer lifestyles and fashion consumption concepts and orientations, and develop healthy and safe functional outdoor, home, leisure and smart wearable fashion products. The stay-at-home model is not over yet, and some outdoor fashion products are already selling so hot on e-commerce platforms that they are sold out, which is a sign.
The long-term impact of the epidemic on China’s textile and apparel trade
We are It is in the superposition period of multiple cyclical factors. If the spread of the new epidemic around the world triggers a new round of global financial crisis (about once every ten years), then global economic recession, market depression, and decline in world trade will become the biggest challenges facing the world’s textile industry, which will have a great impact on China’s textile industry. The medium- to long-term negative impact of trade is highly likely.
This is reflected in the simultaneous fluctuations of world textile trade and financial cycles: the 1998 Southeast Asian financial cycle (previously the 1987 US stock market crisis), the 2008 US subprime mortgage crisis and this time The ongoing global stock market shocks usually lead to a decline in global textile and apparel trade growth with China (see chart).
The SARS epidemic in 2003 reduced the number of on-site customers at the Canton Fair that year. and order volume dropped by more than 30%, but at this time the world’s textile industry has begun to recover. Moreover, because China joined the WTO in November 2001, the MFA (Multi-fiber Agreement) was terminated in 2004, and quotas were cancelled, China’s textile industry is on the rise., trade volume and growth are both at high levels, and the impact of the epidemic has not been reflected in export growth.
In 2008, the global financial crisis was triggered by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis. In 2009, global textile trade experienced negative growth, and the recession in textile trade lasted for almost seven years. China’s textile export industry Negative growth occurred for the first time in 2015. Therefore, before the emergence of this epidemic and the new financial crisis, the world economy and global textile trade were already in decline. Complex international political and economic factors, especially the trade war, Chinese textiles were already under great external pressure. Therefore, the COVID-19 epidemic has put The difficulties brought about by the world and China’s textile trade are severe.
On the other hand, the global spread of the epidemic has just highlighted the resilience of China’s textile and apparel industry and its determination to face a possible financial crisis. China will once again become the country to redeem itself and save the world. An important force of the crisis, the epidemic has also proved that global textiles are indivisible, and China’s textile and apparel industry will consolidate and enhance its dominant position in the world’s textile industry. This depends on whether China’s textile industry can deepen its sustainable and high-quality development strategy after the epidemic.
China’s long-term strategy for textile trade
With “One Belt, One Road” Initiatives are strategies to optimize domestic industrial layout. Establish a new core area and implement inclusive growth with countries and regions along the route, including establishing a new global fashion community with developed countries Italy and France.
Take the “CIIE” as an opportunity. Introduce advanced textile and clothing equipment, technology and high-end fashion products, promote industrial and consumption upgrading, adhere to a balanced trade policy, and give full play to China’s comparative advantages in textile and clothing.
Further promote and enhance the social responsibility of textile and apparel enterprises. Strengthen actions and actions in green environmental protection, cleaner production and poverty alleviation, build a healthy and co-prosperous economic and industrial ecology, synchronize industrial upgrading and social upgrading, and improve industrial core capabilities.
Use innovative technology to empower China’s textile comprehensive competitiveness, transform from a follower into a leader, and lead the sustainable growth of the fashion industry. The World Bank’s report has proven that labor costs are still one of the main factors in the growth of the apparel industry, but innovation factors provide two-thirds of the growth momentum of apparel (“The Way to Success in Apparel”, World Bank, translated by Yang Yixiong et al.). The epidemic has also shown that the low-cost model that relies solely on labor is fragile and unsustainable.
The global ecology of the fashion industry. The industrialization and modernization of fashion has been going on for more than 250 years, and if it has been more than 100 years since the invention of sewing and the assembly line, the design and innovation of the fashion industry based on industrial capital is centered on developed countries. The fashion industry has shifted from developed countries to developing and underdeveloped countries. Fashion trade is essentially driven by the markets and buyers of developed countries. This order and pattern looks beautiful. However, developed countries, on the one hand, profit from their technological trade brand advantages and low-cost products from the world’s factories. On the other hand, trade protection and anti-globalization are constantly used to tear fashion apart and provoke confrontation and decoupling.
This “epidemic” has proved the indivisibility of global fashion from the opposite side, and also exposed the terminal dilemma of unilateralism, protectionism and authoritarianism. New fashion forces and new regional centers emerged after the epidemic, forming a fashion home for co-creation, co-prosperity and sharing, as well as a fashion community of equality, mutual benefit, coordinated development, complementation and win-win. The hardest-hit areas of the epidemic are global fashion manufacturing centers, as well as traditional fashion centers such as Italy, France, and Spain, as well as the world’s high-end fashion and large-scale market centers. This is a problem and a metaphor.
Three or two branches of peach blossoms outside the bamboo, a prophet of the warmth of the spring river
Every economic fluctuation and crisis is always first reflected in the textile industry: the economic depression first hits the textile market trade, and the textile industry is the first to exert economic revival and prosperity. Most textile enterprises are small and medium-sized, with small entry and exit costs. Therefore, when the economy is in turmoil, a group of enterprises absorb the destructive energy of the shock with their own transformation. When the economy is normal, the world’s population and per capita income are growing, and The vibrant endogenous innovation of the textile industry provides sustained driving force for growth. The textile industry is a stabilizer, buffer, equalizer and accelerator of economic development.
Therefore, while the global epidemic is still spreading, China’s fashion industry should first do a good job in itself, eliminate backward production capacity, abandon outdated technologies and products, and seize new technology functional textiles Business opportunities in the market, steady resumption of work, meeting changes in market needs, filling vacancies in the international market, solidifying the foundation, accelerating the transformation of new technologies, and finding new growth points in the fashion industry. Accelerate the empowerment of fashion B-side and C-side by smart manufacturing, Internet of Things, Industrial Internet, 5G, cloud technology, etc., replace traditional factors such as physical capital and labor with new growth factors such as smart manufacturing and information, and use the “Belt and Road” as the fulcrum , the CIIE is the entrance to build a new connotation and new pattern of the global fashion industry, and create a new territory for Chinese fashion. </p
