U.S. stocks opened last night, and the three major stock indexes continued to rise, driven by the economic stimulus agreement reached between the White House and the Senate overnight in the United States. The Dow rose nearly 700 points at one point, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both rose by more than 1%. After the three major stock indexes rose sharply during the session, they plunged rapidly within 15 minutes before the close. Among them, the Dow Jones Industrial Average once rose as much as 6%, but finally closed up only 2.39%; the S&P 500 index fell rapidly in late trading, and finally closed up 1.15%; the Nasdaq closed down 0.45%. The U.S. stock fear index VIX rose 3.70% to 63.95, and the options market became more concerned about the future of U.S. stocks.
The epidemic in the United States continues to escalate, with more than 10,000 new cases for the third consecutive day. According to John Real-time statistics released by Johns Hopkins University show that as of 7 a.m. Beijing time this morning, a total of 65,285 confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia and 926 deaths have been reported in the United States, with 12,017 new confirmed cases compared with the previous day. The U.S. Secretary of Defense has issued a cease-and-desist order to the U.S. military, requiring all U.S. troops stationed overseas to stop all travel and action plans. The order will be implemented for up to 60 days to prevent the spread of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic among US military forces.
In Europe, Germany began to implement unprecedented aid measures. Yesterday the German parliament approved a 1.1 trillion euro rescue package to protect the economy. The German parliament granted the government emergency powers, allowed unlimited debt issuance, and agreed to suspend the “debt brake (ceiling)”. It is understood that the “debt brake” clause limits the federal budget deficit to 0.35% of GDP. Only in extremely urgent circumstances, the German federal government has the right to apply to parliament to increase the ceiling. On the same day, the French government also passed 25 administrative decrees in response to the public health emergency. The most prominent of these 25 administrative decrees are the French government’s economic assistance measures for enterprises and individuals. Among them, 300 billion euros are for all enterprises, 1 billion euros for small and medium-sized enterprises, and 8.5 billion euros to support “partially unemployed” individuals.
Affected by this, European stocks closed higher early this morning. The Stoxx Europe 600 index closed up 3.1%, its largest two-day gain since 2008. Germany’s DAX index closed up 1.34%; Britain’s FTSE 100 index closed up 4.26%; France’s CAC40 index closed up 4.47%; Spain’s IBEX35 index closed up 3.65%; Italy’s FTSE index closed up 2.48%
Yesterday afternoon, according to Russian media reports, a pipe burst in a petrochemical plant in Iran caused a fire. During the U.S. stock market last night, sources said that the United States planned to put pressure on Saudi Arabia during the G20 meeting, urging it to restrain crude oil production. The White House has previously confirmed that Trump will participate in Thursday’s G20 conference call. In his call with the Saudi Crown Prince yesterday, US Secretary of State Pompeo also urged Saudi Arabia to ensure the stability of global energy and financial markets during the crisis.
Crude oil does not seem to be affected. As of 6 o’clock this morning, WTI crude oil futures opened down 1% and are now trading at $24.25 per barrel. In addition, London Copper rose 0.51%; gold fell 1.56%. U.S. soybeans fell 0.38%; U.S. soybean meal fell 3.08%; U.S. soybean oil rose 1.02%; U.S. sugar rose 2.22%; U.S. cotton rose 0.58%; the GVZ (precious metal VIX) index rose 0.37%. The OVX (VIX of crude oil ETF) index rose or fell 15.70%.
A fire breaks out at an Iranian oil plant! The probability of oil price weakness is high
According to Russian media reports, a pipeline burst caused a fire at the Abadan petrochemical plant in Iran. At present, the casualties are not yet known. The epidemic has not been completely controlled in Iran. In the past 24 hours, there were 2,206 new confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in Iran, 143 new deaths, and a total of 27,017 confirmed cases.
It is understood that Abadan is a famous oil city in Iran, located in the oil-producing Khuzestan Province. Before the Iran-Iraq War began in 1980, the Abadan Refinery had a daily refining capacity of 600,000 barrels, making it the largest refinery in Iran. The Iran-Iraq War left Abadan severely damaged. After the Iran-Iraq war ended in 1988, Iran rebuilt the Abadan refinery.
CITIC Futures crude oil analyst Yang Jiaming believes that Iran’s crude oil exports have fallen sharply due to US sanctions, and its market influence has dropped sharply, which means that the impact on international crude oil demand is limited, but the Problems at the refinery may cause problems with Iran’s domestic supply of refined oil. “The refinery’s production capacity is currently 390,000 barrels per day. It is the largest refinery in Iran, accounting for 20% of its production capacity. Coupled with the impact of the recent epidemic, Iran’s domestic refined oil supply may be in short supply. It remains to be seen whether it will trigger social unrest.”
“The U.S. stock market has been boosted by the economic stimulus plan recently and has risen sharply in the short term. However, the market has divergent views on the stimulus plan, leading to increased financial market volatility. Crude oil has recently been affected by supply and the epidemic. Due to the double suppression of demand, defeating the epidemic relies more on people’s voluntary isolation. Therefore, it is difficult for crude oil demand to improve until the epidemic improves, and the probability of remaining weak is high.” Yang Jiaming said.
The domestic futures market closed in the red on a large scale yesterday
Yesterday, Domestic futures markets closed broadly higher, with Shanghai silver rising by more than 7%, iron ore rising by more than 5%, Zhengzhou cotton rising by the daily limit, and palm oil rising by more than 4%. Energy and chemicals were divided, with asphalt and crude oil rising by more than 2%, styrene falling by more than 4%, and methanol falling by more than 2%; most basic metals also rose.
Following the opening of the main Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver futures contracts at daily limit on Tuesday, the precious metals sector in the domestic futures market was among the top gainers yesterday. “The recent rise in precious metals is mainly related to the continued launch of the Federal Reserve’s…Related to the easing of policies, U.S. stocks rebounded sharply, and the liquidity crisis eased, the market stopped selling precious metals and covered short positions. The rise in gold is partly related to the logistics difficulties caused by the epidemic, so COMEX’s recent-month gold has seen an abnormal premium for far-month contracts and spot gold. “Wang Jun, senior analyst at Minmetals Economics Futures, said that silver has always been more volatile than gold. Due to recent risk events, silver has weakened significantly, and the gold-silver ratio is at a historically high level. The large increase in Shanghai Silver yesterday was also due to The need to repair the gold-silver ratio.
He said that the recent rebound in precious metals was mainly due to the easing of the liquidity crisis, funds stopped selling precious metals, and the rapid price increase The decline has also attracted some bargain-hunting funds to intervene, and whether gold and silver can continue to rebound in the short term mainly depends on whether the market, especially the stock market risk appetite, can continue to rebound, which is related to whether the market’s expectations for deflation will be revised. “If US stocks fall again , the market will refocus on deflationary pressure, and precious metals will also be under pressure accordingly. From the analysis of capital sentiment and logic, we tend to believe that the space above gold and silver is limited, and prices will be under pressure again after a short-term rebound. ”
Specifically, Wang Jun suggested that in the short term, we need to focus on the development of the epidemic and the trend of the U.S. stock market, as well as the fiscal policy being brewed in the United States and the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. Any U.S. stock market The return of risks will lead to deflationary expectations in the market, which will put pressure on precious metals. It is recommended to appropriately place short orders at pressure levels. “Of course, as global central banks are doing their best to release liquidity, after this crisis, we are optimistic about gold and silver long-term investment value. “
In addition, the oil and fat sector also generally rose yesterday. Bai Jie, senior manager of COFCO Futures Research Institute, said that the current focus on the fundamentals of oil and oil is mainly on the supply side, and the pneumonia epidemic is Global fermentation has brought greater uncertainty to production areas and logistics, and domestic low oilseed stocks have become more sensitive to production areas and logistics conditions.
“Since all domestic palm oil depends on imports, the suspension of operations of palm oil plantations and the extension of control time in Malaysia have caused market concerns about later supply. ” Regarding the current rise in palm oil futures prices, Bai Jie believes that the current global pneumonia epidemic and the impact of the crude oil plunge on palm oil demand have not seen a change, and the continuous rise in palm oil should be regarded as a rebound.
In addition, he also said that the current domestic soybean and soybean meal stocks are at a low level for the same period in the past. At the same time, the pneumonia epidemic in Brazil and Argentina in South America has brought greater difficulties to the logistics of the production areas. Uncertainty and low inventory have become more sensitive to the logistics situation in South American production areas. Short selling is not recommended at this time.
The United States has re-imposed 25% tariffs on some Chinese goods
According to the recent announcement by the Office of the United States Trade Representative, the United States will impose additional levies on goods included in China’s second batch of US$34 billion in tariff exclusions. According to the announcement of the extension of the validity period, some goods will be re-imposed a 25% tariff starting yesterday.
It is understood that since July 6, 2018, the United States has imposed a total value of Approximately US$34 billion of Chinese exports are subject to an additional 25% tariff. On March 25, 2019, the Office of the United States Trade Representative announced that some of the above-mentioned goods will be temporarily exempted from additional tariffs for a period of one year. After the one-year period is up Before the period, the United States updated the list of products that are temporarily exempted from additional tariffs. Among them, 11 products have been extended the exemption period for one year, and 22 products have not been extended and will be re-imposed with a 25% tariff from March 25. According to the announcement , products that have been extended the exemption period include submersible water filtration machinery, breast pumps, etc. Products subject to additional tariffs on March 25 include submersible centrifugal pumps, cast iron impeller casings, compressor casings designed for turbochargers, etc. .
There is market news that the United States may allow companies to defer tax payments, but this is not a universal provision and requires specific analysis by specific companies. Large companies call on the U.S. government to delay and suspend Imposing import tariffs, U.S. Customs has told importers that it will grant deferment of import tariffs on a case-by-case basis, but steel producers and trade hawks oppose this proposal.
The British Crown Prince tested positive for the new crown, Putin announced that Russia will not work next week, and the epidemic in Spain is getting worse
The epidemic has invaded the British royal family. The British royal family issued a statement on the 25th, saying, The British Prince of Wales, Crown Prince Charles, has tested positive for the new coronavirus and currently has mild symptoms. A spokesman for Clarence House said that the 71-year-old Charles is currently showing mild symptoms and “has been working from home recently”; his wife Camilla After testing, there was no infection. The statement said that Charles has been performing a lot of royal duties in recent weeks, so it cannot be determined where he contracted the new coronavirus. Queen Elizabeth II and her husband Prince Philip left Buckingham Palace earlier this month , took refuge in Windsor Castle.
Late last night, Beijing time, Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a televised speech to the nation on the new coronavirus epidemic. Putin announced the postponement of the vote on the constitutional amendment (original A referendum on constitutional amendments is scheduled for April 22). Putin also announced that next week will be a “no-work week” for the Russian people, but wages will remain unchanged.
According to data released by the Spanish Ministry of Health on the 25th, Spain had 7,937 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 738 new deaths compared with the previous day. The total number of confirmed cases reached 47,610, including 3,434 people died and 5,367 people were cured and discharged. In addition, Spanish Deputy Prime Minister Calvo also confirmed the infection.
The cumulative number of confirmed cases in Italy has exceeded 70,000. According to the latest data released by the Italian Ministry of Health at 18:00 on March 25, local time, there are currently 57,521 cases of COVID-19 infection in Italy, 7,503 deaths, and 9,362 recoveries. The total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 infection is 74,386.
There were 738 new deaths, and the total number of confirmed cases reached 47,610, of which 3,434 died and 5,367 were cured and discharged. In addition, Spanish Deputy Prime Minister Calvo also confirmed the infection.
The cumulative number of confirmed cases in Italy has exceeded 70,000. According to the latest data released by the Italian Ministry of Health at 18:00 on March 25, local time, there are currently 57,521 cases of COVID-19 infection in Italy, 7,503 deaths, and 9,362 recoveries. The total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 infection is 74,386. </p
