The global COVID-19 epidemic is still spreading, with Europe and the United States becoming the hardest-hit areas, and there is currently no sign of slowing down.
According to Worldometer statistics, as of 03:23 a.m. Beijing time today, the number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia worldwide exceeded 650,000, reaching 650,928, and the cumulative number of deaths exceeded 30,000, reaching 30,299 example.
Data released by Johns Hopkins University at 7 o’clock this morning showed that the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceeded 120,000, with 121,117 cases, and a total of 2,010 deaths. Among them, New York State accounts for nearly half of the confirmed cases of COVID-19, with 52,318 cases. Compared with about 24 hours ago, the number of confirmed cases in the United States increased by more than 20,000 in a single day. In addition, the Chicago area has the first case of an infant in the United States dying from a new coronavirus infection. The specific cause of the baby’s death is currently under investigation. On the 28th local time, US President Trump has approved 17 states or regions to declare a “state of disaster” in response to the new coronavirus epidemic. Including New York, Washington, California, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Maryland, Illinois and other states, as well as Guam and Puerto Rico.
In Europe, a total of 92,472 cases have been confirmed in Italy, 72,248 cases have been confirmed in Spain, more than 50,000 cases have been confirmed in Germany, and the number of confirmed cases in France has risen to 37,575. Russia has announced that it will close all border ports starting tomorrow. .
In addition, the number of new coronavirus cases in Japan exceeded 100 for the first time in a single day. The Saudi Ministry of Interior also announced that all flights, domestic transportation and office activities will be suspended until further notice.
The two “protagonists” in the crude oil price war have taken measures such as closing border ports or suspending domestic transportation due to the epidemic. Will this have an impact on the crude oil market?
According to foreign media reports, Algeria, the rotating OPEC chair, urged the OPEC Secretariat to convene a meeting this week to assess the plunge in oil prices amid the COVID-19 epidemic and the price war initiated by Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest member. market conditions. But the request failed to gain majority support, with Saudi Arabia among the opponents, sources said. Sources said other OPEC members did not recognize the effectiveness of holding such a meeting because the oil war between Saudi Arabia and Russia needs to be resolved by their respective leaders.
Regarding the price of crude oil this week, Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States are “battling wits and courage.” Early on Tuesday morning, Trump gave a speech hinting at the possibility of establishing a joint alliance between the United States and Saudi Arabia to stabilize prices, and the United States would send the National Security Council to Saudi Arabia as a special energy representative. Oil prices once rose 6%. In the early hours of Wednesday morning, the G7 finance ministers issued a joint statement, promising to restore market confidence and promote economic growth at all costs, while calling on crude oil producing countries to protect market stability. As a result, the energy sector of the US stock market rose by more than 16%. In the early hours of Thursday morning, some market participants claimed that the United States planned to put pressure on Saudi Arabia during the G20 meeting and urge it to restrain crude oil production. Oil prices remained unmoved in early trading. Sure enough, the United States took no action at the G20 special summit on Thursday night, confirming that the previous news of pressure on Saudi Arabia was false. Oil prices continued to fall sharply in early trading on Friday. On Friday afternoon, relevant sources in Russia reported that Russia was in contact with Saudi Arabia and some other countries and was expected to further negotiate on production cuts. However, Saudi Arabia quickly denied the news, and crude oil also fell sharply on Friday night.
The epidemic in the United States is serious, but the Federal Reserve’s strong policies have caused U.S. stocks to rise for three consecutive days this week. The S&P still achieved its largest weekly gain in 11 years this week, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose this week. Nearly 13%, the largest weekly increase since 1938. The introduction of economic stimulus policies by Germany and France also caused European stocks to post their largest weekly gain in eight years this week. The inner activities of short-selling investors may be the same as the classic lines from Hong Kong dramas:
This week’s international financial markets, Commodity futures markets have experienced violent fluctuations. Saudi Arabia categorically refused to negotiate over the weekend. In addition, the epidemic continues to spread. The future of the stock market and related products looks “uncertain” next week…
The epidemic may kill 81,000 people in the United States. Trump: Governors, you must know how to be grateful
As the epidemic continues to spread, the United States Some governors, including Washington state and Michigan, have criticized the federal government for its poor response to the epidemic. However, at the White House epidemic briefing held at 5 a.m. Beijing time yesterday, Trump expressed deep disapproval of these criticisms and directly responded: “We have been good enough to these (Democratic) governors, and they need to be grateful. “At the meeting, he also said that he had instructed Vice President Pence, “Don’t make phone calls to those ‘ungrateful’ governors, as the calls will be in vain.”
Yesterday, the University of Washington School of Medicine released an analysis predicting that the peak of the epidemic in the United States will arrive in April, and that COVID-19 may cause 81,000 deaths in the United States. It is reported that this analysis by the University of Washington School of Medicine used data from the U.S. government and hospitals. Analysis predicts that the peak of the epidemic in the United States will arrive in the second week of April, and in some states the peak may arrive later.
It’s worth notingFutures analyst Chen Chang told a reporter from Futures Daily that the current prevention and control and progress of overseas cases is the key. As liquidity risks are mitigated, the market’s focus will gradually shift from indiscriminate selling due to liquidity to the downturn in fundamentals due to cases. Therefore, it is necessary to pay close attention to the prevention and control of overseas cases and the stimulus policies of various governments. . If subsequent cases are not properly prevented and controlled, the market may see another sharp correction under the dual pressure of market risk aversion and pessimistic economic expectations.
“The market fluctuates greatly in the short term, and risk control is essential. From a hedging perspective, stock index futures, as a hedging tool, can Help investors effectively avoid systemic risks. For unilateral futures trading, it is recommended that investors roll their positions with light positions, and if necessary, lock positions or use options to avoid the overnight risk of futures.” Chen Chang suggested.
In terms of precious metals, Yide Futures analyst Zhang Chen said that since March, overseas epidemics have caused risk assets such as European and American stock markets to plummet, and demand for overseas physical precious metals has surged. There are reports that most refineries, mints and wholesalers around the world have exhausted their inventories and are not accepting new orders due to the epidemic. There has been a significant premium in the physical precious metals market, to a certain extent, including New York gold and London gold. The futures and spot markets are out of touch. “We have seen that this week, the holding levels of SPDR Gold ETF and iShares Silver ETF hit a new high this year, showing that the demand for gold and silver investment is still relatively strong. Unlike the CFDs on some spot platforms, the shortage in the physical market is first transmitted through the delivery mechanism. The futures market caused a significant strengthening in the price difference between futures and current prices. Later, foreign media said that CME Group was considering revising the delivery details and planning to launch a new contract, which narrowed the price difference, and the price of precious metals subsequently began to oscillate at a high level.” Zhang Chen said.
Where will the precious metals market go next? Zhang Chen believes that in the short term, the epidemic will still be the main factor that dominates the pricing of various assets in the market. With the Federal Reserve’s unlimited easing policy, the market has shown signs of easing liquidity pressure. With the release of heavy economic data in March, it is a strong support for precious metals (especially gold). It is expected that precious metals will still maintain strong oscillation next week, and it is not ruled out that gold will test the previous high near 1703.
“However, we need to pay close attention to CME Group’s specific response to the delivery issue, which may cause short-term market fluctuations. In the medium term, the decline in U.S. dollar credit and lower U.S. real interest rates will be The main support for gold and silver. At present, for investors, going long on dips is still the preferred strategy. Based on the above analysis, we give priority to recommending gold allocation.” Zhang Chen suggested.