According to trade data from January to February 2020 released by the General Administration of Customs of China on March 7, 2020, my country’s foreign trade has experienced a significant decline due to the extended Spring Festival holiday and the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic. According to U.S. dollar statistics, my country’s import and export volume of goods from January to February 2020 was US$591.99 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, of which exports were US$292.45 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%; imports were US$299.54 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4%; trade The deficit was $7.1 billion, the first deficit since March 2018.
From the data point of view, textile and clothing exports have been affected more than the overall trade in goods. From January to February 2020, textile and clothing exports were US$29.83 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20%, of which textile exports were US$13.77 billion, a decrease of 19.9%, and clothing exports were US$16.06 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20%.
According to the restrictive measures adopted by relevant countries (regions) issued by the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, as of March 23, 2020, 24 countries (regions) have implemented import restrictions on goods; 112 countries (regions) ) has adopted restrictive measures on flights/trains/ships, including suspending all international flights, prohibiting entry of non-citizens, etc.; 56 countries (regions) have closed all or part of their ports or strengthened port quarantine; a total of 174 countries (regions) have Restrictive measures will be implemented on the entry and exit of personnel. As the epidemic spreads around the world in recent weeks, it is difficult to determine when the above-mentioned trade restrictions in various countries will be lifted.
The epidemic will have a certain long-term impact on industry trade
First, trade uncertainty has impacted China’s position in the global supply chain.
China is the world’s largest exporter of textiles and clothing. According to WTO data, China’s textile exports accounted for 37.9% of the world’s total textile exports in 2018, and China’s clothing exports accounted for 31.95% of the world’s total clothing exports.
At the same time, China’s textile industry is also an important link in the global textile and apparel supply chain. In 2019, my country’s textile exports were US$120.298 billion, of which yarn exports were US$13.208 billion and fabric exports were US$13.208 billion. US$60.087 billion. The top five textile export markets are the United States, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Japan and Indonesia. Among them, the export value to the United States is US$12.452 billion, the export value to Vietnam is US$12.267 billion, the export value to Bangladesh is US$6.438 billion, and the export value to Bangladesh is US$6.438 billion. Japan’s exports were US$5.412 billion, and exports to Indonesia were US$4.237 billion.
During the epidemic, the shutdown of domestic textile companies and the export embargo have had an impact on countries that rely on textile imports from China. Take Vietnam as an example. Vietnam is very dependent on China’s textile imports. In 2019, Chinese fabrics and fibers accounted for 60% and 55% of Vietnam’s imports respectively. Therefore, a steep decline in China’s textile exports may lead to the suspension of textile and apparel production lines in relevant countries. If the above-mentioned countries look for alternative Chinese suppliers, the status of “Made in China” in the global supply chain will be severely impacted.
The second is that the decline in the consumer side has caused a new round of contraction in the global industrial chain and value chain.
As China’s textile and apparel exports account for an increasing share of the world’s share, China’s textile and apparel industry has been fully integrated into the global production network and global value chain system. For example: China relies on the import of cotton, wool and other raw materials; China’s yarn, fabric and other textile exports not only reach the developed markets of the United States, Japan and Europe, but also many emerging apparel exporting countries in Asia and Africa; for a long time, China’s clothing exports have been dominated by the United States and Japan. Mainly developed markets in Europe. In 2019, clothing exports to the United States were US$32.753 billion, exports to the EU were US$33.935 billion, and exports to Japan were US$15.385 billion. Exports to the three major markets accounted for 54.14% of my country’s clothing exports. %.
Affected by the epidemic, major global clothing retailers Uniqlo, Zara, H&M, Nike and Adidas have temporarily closed stores in many countries to curb the spread of the new coronavirus. In addition, the postponement of the Tokyo Olympics to the summer of 2021 has caused huge losses to sports product sponsors. This has led to a sharp decline in global apparel retail and a new round of contraction in the global industrial chain and value chain.
Under the influence of the epidemic, stabilizing the supply chain is the top priority
In March 2020, the “Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) on Global Trade” released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development showed that the new coronavirus epidemic is expected to cause a loss of US$50 billion to global value chain exports. Among the 13 industries analyzed in the report, the textile and apparel industry will lose more than 1.5 billion US dollars (approximately RMB 10.4 billion). Among them, the EU was the most affected, with a loss of US$538 million, mainly because EU member states such as Italy, France and Spain have maintained close cooperative relations with Chinese suppliers. China is an important supplier of intermediate products such as yarn, fabrics, zippers, buttons and other accessories for the textile and apparel industry.
Economic globalization mainly manifests itself in the internationalization of production and capital. After more than 40 years of development through reform and opening up, China’s textile industry has a complete industrial chain, the most complete categories, and a leading international position in intelligent manufacturing. It has become an important part of the global value chain, and its status in the international division of labor has continued to increase. China has Two textile companies have entered the Fortune Global 500.
In the context of emergencies due to the spread of the global epidemic in 2020, the result of resuming work and production and stabilizing exports is to stabilize the supply chain and ensureMaintain the position of China’s textile industry in the global supply chain and guard against the loosening of global value chain ties caused by the epidemic, and multinational companies turning to purchasing from local companies. Export companies should strengthen supply chain risk management, including inventory, logistics and transportation, and supplier diversification, to enhance supply chain resilience. </p
