Recently, as foreign public health incidents continue to ferment, the textile industry and foreign trade are worried, and the price trend of polyester filament has continued to fall, which has hit the market confidence that is on the verge of collapse. As for the reason for the continuous decline of polyester filament, it is inseparable from its own high inventory, low cost of PTA, and downstream demand.
The time to resume work after the holiday is less than one month. As can be seen from the table, Ju The prices of various products in the ester industry chain have dropped by 900-2,000 yuan. Specifically, the price of polyester filament POY products is around 4,950 yuan/ton, which is a drop of nearly 1,900 yuan/ton from 6,850 yuan/ton in the same period last month. The price of FDY products is around 5,325 yuan/ton, down nearly 1,825 yuan/ton from 7,150 yuan/ton in the same period last month. The price of DTY products is around 6,925 yuan/ton, down nearly 1,825 yuan/ton from 7,150 yuan/ton in the same period last month. 1525 yuan/ton. The profits of polyester filament have continued to fall and are now in a state of loss. Compared with the same period last month, profits have plummeted by more than 100%.
High polyester inventory: According to statistics, major factories have successively made plans to reduce their burdens. Jiangsu Shenghong’s 200,000-ton polyester yarn unit has reduced its burden this week, Tianlong New Materials’ 200,000 tons/year, Southeast New Materials’ The 300,000 tons/year material capacity and the 200,000 tons/year polyester yarn installation of Tiansheng have been gradually increased. Yingxiang originally planned to restart the 200,000 tons/year polyester yarn unit in the near future, but it has now been postponed to June. Moreover, Tongkun Hengteng, Hengyou, and Hengsheng all have maintenance plans in the near future, and it cannot be ruled out that some factories may be expected to undergo maintenance in advance.
So, as of last week, the low-end inventory of some POY factories was around 15-20 days, and the high-end inventory was around 30-48 days; FDY factory inventory was mostly around 23-30 days, and the high-end inventory was around 23-30 days. One and a half months, the low end is around half a month; DTY inventory is mostly around 38-47 days, the high end inventory is around two months, and the low end inventory is around half a month.
Main raw material PTA: From the end of March to the beginning of April, the maintenance of multiple units was completed and restarted as planned. Hanbang 1.1 million tons restarted as planned. The load of domestic PTA units increased by 2.1% to 75.47% (increased Hengli 2.5 million tons of new production capacity, PTA domestic production capacity base in February was adjusted to 52.39 million tons), BP 1.25 million tons is heating up today, and products will be released tomorrow.
Huabin Petrochemical’s 1.4 million tons capacity has recently restarted, and Dushan Energy’s 2.2 million tons capacity is expected to restart in early April. With the introduction of resumption of work policies and government support policies in various places, polyester production starts have shown a slow upward trend in March. However, due to the recent reduction in foreign trade orders, polyester production starts are expected to decline slightly in April. The current price of PTA is around 3,240 yuan/ton, down nearly 1,000 yuan from the same period last month. The cost has collapsed, and the price of polyester filament is difficult to support.
Current status of the downstream industry: Foreign trade exports are one of the ways to drive China’s economic growth. In 2019, foreign trade exports increased by 15.6%, but this year, this strong foreign trade textile area is feeling even more pressure. Export orders have been cancelled, and some orders have been suspended. Recently, polyester filament production and sales have only remained at around 50-60%, making it difficult to break through. Businesses can only move forward by waiting, restarting and pausing.
In the later stage, affected by international crude oil, the market was pessimistic and international crude oil prices fell again. Some polyester factories will undergo maintenance in mid-March, and the restart time has not yet been determined. As of now, the polyester filament production rate is 84.06%. Recommendations for downstream weaving resumption are slow, polyester factory inventory pressure is high, European and American textile and apparel export orders have a huge impact, and domestic and foreign trade orders have led to delays or cancellations. Although polyester filament companies continue to increase their promotional efforts, little effect has been achieved. Because under the dual pressure of production, sales and demand, polyester filament is expected to decline. </p
