It was supposed to be a day of national mourning for the Tomb Sweeping Day, but the raw materials skyrocketed with a revenge
Cause: At around 2:00 pm on April 2, Beijing time, the “fake news” incident was caused by the unreliable Twitter This triggered continued and repeated rises in international crude oil.
Process: No further details.
Climax: The retaliatory rise in polyester yarn is still going on…
End: Let’s wait and see!
Event analysis and prediction:
1. The relationship between crude oil and polyester
The benchmark price of crude oil indirectly determines the production cost of the polyester end. The rise and fall of polyester yarn does need to refer to the real price of crude oil, but it should be more subject to the influence of downstream supply and demand. The digestion of demand at the weaving end is the right answer. Due to the continued seriousness of the international epidemic The overall downstream market is currently weak and has no positive support. The agreement to reduce production at the upcoming and postponed Internet OPEC meeting will most likely not be completed.
2. The real inventory situation of polyester yarn
Since the weaving holiday last year, various varieties of polyester yarn in polyester factories have The inventory began to accumulate continuously. The inventory in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and South China last year, POY + FDY + DTY, averaged about 20 days, about 3.17 million tons. The domestic epidemic affected the holiday extension, and weaving factories resumed work one after another on February 24, and polyester products accumulated in inventory. + one full month, 20 days + 30 days = 50 days, about 9.31 million tons. By the beginning of April, more than a month of normal resumption time, the overall average production and sales are less than 40% (conservative valuation, even less than 30%). Then converted, 36*0.6=21.6 days, 20+30+21.6=71.6 days, even if it is 71 days, it is about 11.28 million tons, the production and sales data of 200%, 300%, 500% in the past two days are nothing (statement) The authenticity of the data, the official data of polyester factories, and the industry website data in the circle are for whom please consider carefully) Several major polyester factories use school warehouses to store raw materials, and some rent warehouses from around to temporarily transfer goods. Various manufacturers Without exception, the warehouse was destroyed. Dozens of 13.5-meter semi-trailers were moved from warehouse A to warehouse B. Some cartons and packaging were even moved around and devastated. Therefore, even if his total production and sales were 1000%, he only had 10 days of production capacity. It has 60 days of inventory. Even if it has 2000% production capacity, it still has 50 days of inventory, which is close to 10 million tons! Ignorant downstream buyers, why are you panicking? Is it the salesmen’s tried-and-tested Moments hype, or are the polyester factories reluctant to sell at higher prices due to closures? !
3. The situation of market terminals such as textiles and clothing
Domestic and foreign troubles are particularly serious externally. Everyone in the industry should know the details and will not go into details. Briefly give two examples: Company A’s Fujian customer factory mainly orders orders from Nike/Adidas, business volume has shrunk by nearly 80%, products are overstocked, workers are on rotation, and some workshops have been shut down; Company B’s local factory in Shengze mainly exports European and American home textile products , the current situation is that the workshop is half open and half stopped.
4. The status of bargain hunting groups
There are many real estate bosses, asphalt bosses, plastic bosses, etc. who are actually hoarding goods in this market. It is temporary. The supply and demand relationship has pushed up this wave of hype to several climaxes. Bosses in the weaving and other industries have also begun to panic. Whether it is the laymen who watch the excitement win or… we will wait and see.
5. Prediction
After the short-term rise, the sustainability will be affected by the price of crude oil. If crude oil stabilizes around the US$30 mark, the raw material will have a stable cycle of about 10 days. , and then fluctuate slightly up and down. If crude oil drops to around $20 again, it will cease. I prefer the latter.
A brief discussion of right and wrong: There is nothing wrong with the chemical fiber factory. Let’s change the position. As the owner of a polyester factory, I am in an urgent mood to ship goods and destock. If there is no update at this time, how long will it take? The Chinese people’s habit of chasing the rise and not buying the fall remains unchanged. The mistake may be driven by speculative interests. The mistake may be that we should not commemorate the National Mourning Day on Qingming. The revenge-style surge in raw materials is a sin or a fault.
Real sound screenshots for review:
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