On April 3 (Friday), yesterday, Trump’s unilateral statement that “Saudi Arabia and Russia are expected to reach an agreement on their price war, and the two major oil producers are expected to significantly reduce production by 10-15 million barrels.” After triggering a violent rise in oil prices in early trading in the U.S. market overnight, affected by rumors from Saudi Arabia, Russia, and senior officials in the United States refuting the remarks, oil prices gave up part of their gains after rising sharply. However, as of the close of the day, WTI and Brent were Both futures contracts still recorded their largest percentage gains on record.
During the Asian trading session in Japan, due to various parties’ refutation of rumors, the market’s confidence in the ability of oil-producing countries to hold an emergency meeting and reach an agreement on production reductions in the short term to maintain the stability of the energy market has been reduced. , which caused the international crude oil futures contract to fall under pressure during the Asian market, giving up the gains since yesterday. By the end of the Asian market, WTI’s maximum drop after the opening of the day once exceeded 6%, and Brent’s maximum drop after the day’s opening once exceeded 5.5%.
However, as an OPEC representative made remarks at the end of the Asian market, OPEC+ oil-producing countries planned to hold an emergency meeting on April 6 and discuss new cooperation at the meeting, the news came out This later triggered a short-term sharp rise in international oil prices during the session. Among them, the Brent spot contract has continued to rise from the low of $28.25 after the opening to the high of $32.1 after the opening. The increase once rose by more than 6%, and the volatility was as high as more than 12%. The WTI spot contract also rose from a low level of $23.9 after the opening to more than $25.7. It turned from rising to falling in the early trading hours of the Asian market, and once rose by more than 2%.
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[Azerbaijani Oil Minister: OPEC+ meeting is planned to be held on April 6]
On April 3, Azerbaijan’s Minister of Energy said at the end of the Asian market: OPEC+ is Prepare for emergency meetings.
According to RIA Novosti, the Azerbaijani Energy Minister stated that the OPEC+ meeting is planned to be held on April 6. OPEC+ plans to discuss new cooperation at the meeting. The meeting will be held via video connection and is expected to All OPEC members will attend next Monday’s meeting. Other foreign media reported that Russia has not yet confirmed whether it will attend the OPEC+ meeting planned for next Monday.
Later in the morning session of the European market, a satellite news report quoted OPEC sources as saying that OPEC+ will discuss a production cut of 10 million barrels per day at next Monday’s meeting. If the scale of the production reduction exceeds 10 million barrels barrels per day, other non-OPEC+ countries need to join in the production cuts. In addition, the source also said that some new countries want to join the OPEC+ organization.
[Trump insists that Saudi Arabia and Russia will cut production by more than 10 million barrels]
On April 3, Beijing time, during the early trading hours of the Asian crude oil futures market, U.S. President Trump made a statement saying that Saudi Arabia and Russia Production may be cut by more than 10 million barrels per day. He said he hoped that Russia and Saudi Arabia would soon announce an agreement to reduce production by up to 15 million barrels per day, and said that “Russia and Saudi Arabia both want to reach an agreement.”
In addition, Trump said that there was no Make any concessions to get Russia and Saudi Arabia to agree to production cuts. In addition, he also mentioned that he would remain open to holding meetings with Iran if it wished.
Trump previously tweeted during early trading in the U.S. market overnight that he had communicated with Russia and Saudi Arabia and that he expected Saudi Arabia and Russia to reach an agreement on their price war as the price war intensified. The crude oil market is suffering, and it is predicted that the two major oil producing countries, Saudi Arabia and Russia, will significantly reduce production by 10-15 million barrels. Affected by these remarks, oil prices rose violently in the early trading session of the US market yesterday, with the Brent spot contract once rising by more than 46%, and WTI once rising by more than 34%.
However, this news was quickly refuted by many parties. Some Saudi officials said Trump’s remarks about cutting production by 10 million barrels per day or more were exaggerated. The official said that the current best-case scenario is to cut production by 6 million barrels per day. He was not sure how Trump obtained the previous data and was not sure which countries he had in mind to join the production cuts. Kremlin spokesman Peskov also said that Putin has not yet had a phone call with the Saudi crown prince. Another OPEC representative said that Russia and Saudi Arabia have not yet reached an agreement on the scale of any production cuts. In addition, later in the day, a senior U.S. government official said that the United States did not know the details of Saudi Arabia and Russia’s plans to cut oil supplies.
[Trump will meet with oil industry executives on Friday afternoon local time]
On the morning of the 3rd, Beijing time, the U.S. White House issued a statement stating that U.S. President Trump will meet at 3 p.m. local time on Friday (i.e. 3 a.m. Saturday, Beijing time) to meet with oil industry executives.
[Saudi Arabia calls for an emergency OPEC+ meeting]
On April 2, according to the Saudi Press Agency: Saudi Arabia called for an emergency OPEC+ meeting. Saudi Arabia said OPEC+ should seek a fair agreement, and Saudi Arabia said OPEC+ would restore the necessary balance in the oil market.
On the same day, the Saudi Crown Prince had a phone call with US President Trump on oil market issues. According to foreign media reports, if other oil-producing countries join in cooperation, Saudi Arabia will consider reducing oil production to less than 9 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia wants U.S. producers, Canada, Mexico and other G20 members to join in the production cuts.
An OPEC representative said that Russia and Saudi Arabia have not yet reached an agreement on the scale of any production cuts. Saudi Arabia hopes that non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries will also join the meeting. OPEC’s production cuts require other countries to join in. Already called for productionI personally believe that currently (as of early trading in the European market) chasing the rise will face greater risks.
Therefore, we still maintain the recommendation for long hedging as mentioned yesterday, and it is still not recommended to conduct unilateral operations at a time when demand may continue to weaken and global crude oil storage space is becoming increasingly tight, because at present The oil price trend is greatly affected by the news, which leads to extreme uncertainty in unilateral operations.
Currently, it is recommended that on the WTI May spot contract, the bottom should focus on the strong support of $22, and the top should focus on the upward pressure of $27.5. If it breaks through, it is recommended to refer to Brent’s strong technical pressure and intraday real-time The market continues to judge the strong pressure on WTI; on the Brent June active contract, the bottom will focus on the strong support of $27.5, and the top will focus on the test of the upward pressure of $32.5, and consider paying attention to the strong technical pressure line of $36 in the later period. </p
