In the first quarter of 2020, the total social inventory of MEG increased by nearly 1.45 million tons. So far, the absolute value of ethylene glycol social inventory has approached the 3 million tons mark. , a historical high.
In the second quarter, although with the partial squeeze out of coal chemical supply and the arrival of the peak season of ethylene oxide consumption, domestic supply has increased. Compression, but polyester’s load continued to rise relatively limited under the dilemma of high inventory and low demand. From May to June, MEG was still difficult to change the pattern of excess supply and demand.
As of the end of March 2020, the social inventory of ethylene glycol in all links has not exceeded the historical high except for the absolute value of the explicit inventory at the terminal. All are at an absolutely high level. The specific MEG supply distribution structure is roughly as follows. It can be seen that apart from the explicit inventory at the terminal, polyester factory inventory accounts for the second largest proportion, accounting for one-third of the total social inventory value.
For this reason, we also specially studied the tank capacity and current tank inventory in the polyester enterprise’s factory:
The figure below shows the ratio of MEG’s can inventory and storage capacity in domestic mainstream polyester factories, that is, the current use of cans in polyester factories. The lower axis 1-21 represents 21 sample companies (the total number of sample companies The production capacity accounts for more than 60% of the current total polyester production capacity), and the left axis represents the usage of tank capacity.
Judging from the 21 polyester factories surveyed, the tank capacity utilization rate of many factories has reached more than 80%, especially in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions The utilization rate of mainstream manufacturers is particularly high.
The utilization rate of some medium-sized polyester companies with an annual production capacity of 1 to 2 million tons ranges from about 50 to 80%. Or due to corporate capital considerations, the stock of raw materials is low and the tank utilization rate is below 50%.
The tank capacity utilization rate of the surveyed sample data is comprehensively measured to be around 75% (weighted average calculation).
In terms of terminal inventory, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China was approximately 1.253 million tons on the 20th, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous period. Looking at next week, the total arrival of goods in East China’s main and auxiliary ports will be around 240,000 tons, and port inventories are expected to rise slightly.
Currently, the social inventory of chemical products is generally high, especially for liquid chemicals, storage capacity has become a scarce resource. Following the negative price of crude oil this week, terminals in East China have also successively introduced new storage policies for some liquefied products. Currently, the pressure to expand storage capacity of styrene, methanol, etc. has become quite obvious.
For ethylene glycol, social inventories will continue to rise due to weak future demand and the expected commissioning of new equipment.
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