Recently, bad news has come one after another in the petrochemical industry.
“Black Monday” is happening again. Stimulated by multiple bad news, New York oil prices plummeted on April 27. As of the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by US$4.16 to close at US$12.78 per barrel, a decrease of 24.56%. The price of London Brent crude oil futures for June delivery fell by US$1.45 to close at US$19.99 per barrel, a decrease of 6.76%. In the morning of the same day, the price of light crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange once fell to $11.88 per barrel, a drop of 29.87%.
On the 27th, the US offshore drilling contractor Diamond Offshore Drilling filed for bankruptcy protection. The company has $2.6 billion in debt, $2 billion of which is in bonds, and nearly $435 million in cash. Ten days ago, the company failed to pay US$500 million in interest to bondholders on time, and the credit rating of the bond was downgraded. Last week, Hin Leong Trading, founded by Lim En Keong, known as Singapore’s “Oil King”, filed for bankruptcy protection. Its assets are only US$714 million, but its liabilities are as high as US$4.05 billion, and its cash position is only US$50 million. The company is insolvent and is seeking an extension on debt repayments totaling $3.65 billion from 23 banks. Earlier this month, U.S. shale driller Whiting Petroleum filed for bankruptcy protection.
After the outbreak of the epidemic and Saudi Arabia’s price war, the offshore drilling industry deteriorated sharply, and the market U.S. offshore oil producers have shut down offshore wells in the Gulf of Mexico as demand for offshore rigs and drillships has dried up, significantly affecting cash flow. Land drilling is also in trouble.
Oil production has now become a money-losing business, causing producers to suffer, and many companies have been forced to reduce or even stop production altogether.
Oil prices have fallen into negative numbers, storage space around the world is “full of oil”, and industry companies have collapsed one by one… This may be the “darkest” period in the history of the crude oil market. . The most direct trigger for this situation is a serious lack of storage space.
Oil tankers are parked all over the offshore waters of the United States and Asia. How much crude oil is there?
On the West Coast of the United States, more than 30 oil tankers were parked in the waters stretching from Los Angeles to the Bay Area of California at the beginning of last week, carrying a total of more than 20 million barrels of oil. The amount has set a historical record, equivalent to one-fifth of the world’s daily fuel consumption.
Among them, three-quarters of the tankers are full of oil. They have been parked here for at least 7 days, which is also rare in history.
The scary thing is that the number of tankers parked here and the cargo tonnage are still increasing. The same situation is true in the Saldanha Bay area in South Africa.
As of the week of April 17, U.S. crude oil inventories increased to 518.6 million barrels, close to the 535 million set in 2017 Barrel record high in history.
The narrow waterway near Singapore’s oil storage terminal has become more congested recently, with about 60 oil tankers docked along the busy channel, far more than the usual 30 to 40. Some of the ships are not used to transport oil but to store it because the tanks on shore are full. Ship brokers and traders say it now takes about two weeks to unload cargo, compared with usually only 4-5 days.
A Singapore shipbroker said it was the first time they had received so many calls to book ships to store oil rather than transport it.
Sri Paravaikkarasu, head of Asia’s oil business at industry consulting firm FGE, said that Singapore’s refinery operating rate may have dropped to around 60% and may further drop to 50% in the second quarter.
All oil storage space in South Korea is also close to saturation, and SK Innovation, the largest local refinery, will further increase its production capacity in June and July. Reduce operating rate to 60% to 70%. This will be the first time in more than three decades that the plant has reduced production for reasons other than overhauling or maintaining equipment.
SK Innovation’s oil depot in Ulsan, South Korea, has reached its 12 million barrel limit, and the recent lease of 1.8 million barrels of oil storage space in southwest Seoul will not relieve the pressure. For this reason, they had to postpone the unloading of oil tankers and needed to pay a high daily cost of 100 million won (approximately US$81,300) to these oil tankers waiting offshore.
The market is generally worried that the countdown to global oil storage space saturation needs to be calculated in weeks, not months, because the excess amount is too large and the space is too little, even if oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia have It was too late to find a place to put crude oil when it started to cut production in advance.
To put it simply, the world is running out of crude oil. Torbjorn Tornqvist, head of commodities trading at Swiss oil trading giant Gunvor Group, warned: We are entering the end game. The most serious stage may be reached in early to mid-May. The end is weeks, not months.
The lifeblood of the entire chemical fiber industry chainBeing firmly locked up, can polyester products climb out of the “price quagmire”?
International oil prices are the lifeblood of the entire chemical fiber industry chain. Driven by international oil prices, the prices of various polyester products have also experienced alarming declines.
The historically low prices of polyester products have been refreshed again and again, causing cloth bosses to feel commotion over and over again. Everyone knows that this year’s low prices are rare in a century, and raw material prices will definitely rise in the future. Therefore, as soon as good news appears, some textile bosses become a little “uncontrollable.”
At the same time, with the epidemic raging, protective clothing fabrics have become a hot commodity on the market. Because some conventional fabrics, such as 210T polyester taffeta and nylon four-way stretch, can have certain protective functions after finishing treatment, they are popular in the market, driving a wave of sales of these fabrics.
Recently, there are rumors on the Internet about an order for 130 million meters of 210T polyester taffeta, and the editor also went to find out more about it. A boss Wang, who specializes in pongee and polyester taffeta, said: “This list is true, but the bulk of it has been divided up by several large weaving factories. They can only grab the remaining “tangtangshuishui” ”, simply “can’t get enough to eat”. Looking at the 130 million meter order is very scary, but with so much production capacity across the country, it is actually only enough to “fill the gap between teeth”. But now that business is so bad, it is better to have an order than not Good.”
Protective clothing fabrics are a niche product after all. During the epidemic, a large amount of weaving production capacity was idle, and what is popular this time are some conventional products, and there is no production threshold. As long as all the machines across the country are fully operational, the demand for hundreds of millions of meters will actually only have two or three days of production capacity, not to mention that most weaving companies have these products in stock.
Therefore, it is okay to rely on the concept of epidemic prevention to receive some orders and take the opportunity to stock up. However, if we want to restart production at full capacity, it is still a bit overthinking. , after all, the improvement of the market needs to be promoted by both upstream and downstream. The editor here also wants to remind textile people that they must fully understand the risks involved, restrain their impulses, and try not to let themselves become “leeks” even if they cannot make money. </p