The U.S. Federal Reserve announced on April 29 that it would maintain the target range of the federal funds rate at an ultra-low level of 0%-0.25%, and the interest rate on excess reserves unchanged at 0.1%, in line with market expectations. At the same time, he warned that the new crown epidemic poses considerable risks to the U.S. economic outlook. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at a press conference that day that U.S. economic activity is likely to decline at an unprecedented rate in the second quarter. The depth and duration of the economic downturn are very uncertain and will largely depend on how quickly the epidemic is controlled. He emphasized that the severity of the U.S. economic recession will depend on the policy measures taken by governments at all levels to mitigate the impact and support recovery.
International oil prices have risen sharply. Due to progress in research on drugs to treat the new coronavirus, a smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories last week and a decline in gasoline inventories, as well as renewed market expectations for the OPEC+ joint production cuts that will be implemented in May, international oil prices stopped falling and rebounded.
The EIA report showed that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 8.991 million barrels last week to 527.6 million barrels, an increase of 1.7%, and an expected increase of 11.678 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 3.669 million barrels. The EIA said U.S. domestic crude oil production fell by 100,000 barrels last week to 12.1 million barrels per day. The refinery equipment utilization rate was 69.6%, an increase of 2 percentage points.
Russian Energy Minister Novak said that Russian oil companies’ crude oil production will decrease by 19% compared with February. JPMorgan Chase expects WTI crude oil prices to stabilize at US$40/barrel and Brent crude oil prices to stabilize at US$45/barrel.
As of early morning closing this morning, the US S&P 500 index rose 2.66%, the European Stoxx50 index rose 2.17%, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.46%, WTI crude oil rose 15.67%, and Brent crude oil rose 5.09 %, London copper rose 0.72%, gold rose 0.28%, U.S. soybeans rose 0.77%, U.S. soybean meal rose 0.10%, U.S. soybean oil rose 1.79%, U.S. sugar rose 4.06%, U.S. cotton rose 2.36%, CRB index rose 3.38%, BDI The index fell 1.83%.
Xinhua News Agency reported that this year’s two sessions will be held on May 21st and 22nd. According to statistics from worldometers, a real-time information and data update website, as of 06:40 on April 30, Beijing time, the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide exceeded 3.2 million, and the cumulative number of deaths worldwide exceeded 220,000.
The Federal Reserve remains on hold, Powell’s high economy is severely affected
Early this morning, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0%-0.25% and the excess reserve interest rate at 0.1%, in line with market expectations.
The Fed’s monetary policy statement responded to expectations for the economic outlook, how long interest rates will remain low, and whether the pace of bond purchases will be adjusted.
As to how long interest rates will remain low, the Fed said it expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the U.S. economy has withstood the test of recent events and is on track to achieve its goals. Maximum employment and price stability goals.
Regarding the economic outlook, the Federal Reserve pointed out that the current public health crisis will seriously affect economic activity, employment and inflation in the short term, and poses considerable risks to the medium-term economic outlook.
As to whether it will adjust its bond purchases, the Federal Reserve stated in a statement that it will continue to purchase Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities in the required amounts. The Fed pledged to continue large-scale overnight and term repurchase operations and pledged to use all its tools to support the U.S. economy.
Notably, the statement removed descriptions of specific asset purchases, after the Fed said it would purchase at least $500 billion worth of Treasury securities and $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities. , this time stated that it will implement bond purchases in accordance with the needs to support the smooth operation of the market. The Fed did not mention the pace of future bond purchases, and the statement did not discuss any specific plans the Fed would pursue during the current crisis.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at a press conference that day that U.S. economic activity may decline at an unprecedented rate in the second quarter. The depth and duration of the economic downturn are very uncertain and very uncertain. Much will depend on how quickly the epidemic is brought under control. He emphasized that the severity of the U.S. economic recession will depend on the policy measures taken by governments at all levels to mitigate the impact and support recovery.
In response to the rapid spread of the epidemic in the United States, the Federal Reserve has successively introduced loose monetary policies to support the U.S. economy, and provided loans totaling up to 2.3 trillion U.S. dollars to help American households and businesses. businesses, state and local governments.
International oil prices have risen sharply
Due to the success of research on drugs to treat the new coronavirus Progress, a smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories last week and a decline in gasoline inventories, as well as renewed market expectations for the OPEC+ joint production cuts that will be implemented in May, have helped international oil prices stop falling and rebound.
The EIA report showed that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 8.991 million barrels last week to 527.6 million barrels, an increase of 1.7%, and an increase of 11.678 million barrels is expected. Gasoline inventories fell by 3.669 million barrels.
EIA said that U.S. domestic crude oil production fell by 100,000 barrels last week to 12.1 million barrels per day. The refinery equipment utilization rate was 69.6%, an increase of 2 percentage points.
Russian Energy Minister Novak said,The contract for more imported Australian coal is the main reason for the weakening of coking coal futures prices. In terms of coke, although its own fundamentals have improved marginally, steel mills and independent coke companies are destocking, and coking plants have begun to raise prices recently. However, due to the drag on the cost side, coke futures prices have not reflected the improvement in their own fundamentals. .
“Into May, the black series will still face certain downward pressure. Although the demand for building materials will still remain resilient, as the factors of concentrated downstream replenishment gradually subside and the highway With the resumption of fees, the demand for finished products may suffer from the problem of “squeezing water”. In the early stage, the imported billets and finished products purchased by domestic traders mainly arrived in Hong Kong in May and June, and the ability to undertake domestic demand will be tested again. Steel production increased The speed is expected to gradually slow down, but as long as the electric furnace is still profitable, output will continue to rise. The planned launch volume of Sha Zhongyong in May has also increased compared with April, and the overall market pressure has increased in May.” Gu Meng said.
Zhong Meiyan believes that the May Day holiday is approaching and the country is facing the first five-day long holiday in the post-epidemic period. From a market perspective, due to many changing factors in the foreign crude oil market, For the energy and chemical market, the overall sentiment is resonant. The absolute low price of oil faces the problems of large amplitude and frequent rhythm switching. In order to avoid corresponding risks, we focus on risk control before the holiday, reduce positions, and take good risk prevention. </p
